WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR CLEMSON vs. NO.13 WAKE FOREST

Welcome to another edition of What We Are Hearing!

It’s hard to believe that the final home game of the season is already upon us. Senior Day is always emotional, and it will be especially for super seniors like James Skalski, Nolan Turner, Darien Rencher and Will Spiers, who were actually on the team the last time the Tigers lost in Death Valley back in 2016. It will be an extra emotional Senior Day for Dabo, who will be celebrating his 52nd birthday and watching his eldest son Will run down The Hill for the final time. But it is also the highest ranked team the Tigers have faced since the opener against Georgia, and it’s a crucial game that the Tigers must win if they are going to keep their 10-win season streak alive for an 11th straight year and have a chance to win a 7th straight ACC Title. Fate is not without a sense of irony, it would seem. Of all the victims of the Tigers’ 33-game home win streak, the longest active streak in the nation, who would have thought that Wake Forest would be the biggest threat to end the streak? But that’s exactly where we have arrived. In part thanks to Covid and all of the super seniors, Wake happens to be having perhaps its best season in the history of its program in the same year that the Tigers have had an unprecedented number of injuries—maybe not just for Clemson but in all of college football history. As fate would have it, the Tigers lost in double overtime at NC State—again, in large part because of injuries—and that is why Wake has an opportunity to clinch the Atlantic Division with a win in Death Valley on Saturday against the program that has had a strangle hold on the entire ACC for the last 6 years. The last time Wake beat Clemson was—you guessed it—2008, the infamous game that cost Tommy Bowden his job and opened the door for Dabo Swinney. Clemson has not only beaten Wake 12 straight times, but the Tigers have beaten the Deacs more than any other program in the ACC and second only to South Carolina. Yet, here we are, with the roles reversed and Wake sitting in the cat bird’s seat with a No.13 ranking and the Tigers unranked for the first time in the series since 2014. Oh, and here’s another twist of fate: Dabo and the Tigers beat Wake on a last-second field goal in 2011 to clinch the division title, and Dabo went on to win his first ACC Championship.

In spite of the craziness of this season and all of those role reversals, the odd-makers favor the unranked Tigers over the No.13 Deacs by 4.5 points. When is the last time you saw that before? Perhaps it’s because the Tigers haven’t lost at home since 2016 or perhaps it’s because they believe defense will win the strength-on-strength matchup between the irresistible force and the immovable object. Or maybe it’s because Wake has survived several scares this season, including last week at home against NC State, and just lost 2 weeks ago to a 4-4 UNC team. Maybe it’s simply because, despite the way this season has gone for both teams, people have a hard time betting on Wake to topple mighty Clemson in Death Valley. Whatever the reason, I think it’s safe to assume that it will be an epic showdown at high noon. Maybe not a shootout, but it will be a reckoning that will likely come down to one or two plays and a final possession, just like every other ACC game the Tigers have played this season. It should be another beautiful day for football in the Valley on Saturday, partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 50’s. If Wake wins, the Deacs punch their ticket for Charlotte. If the Tigers win, they need Wake to lose at Boston College next week and NC State to lose either to Syracuse on Saturday or to UNC next week. On to the matchup…

MISCELLANEOUS

Clemson leads the all-time series with Wake Forest 68-17-1 and has won the last 12 straight meetings… Clemson (85-10) is three wins behind Alabama (88-6) for the most since 2015. The Tigers (128) trail only Alabama (137) for the most wins since 2011. They have 6 more than Ohio State. Clemson leads the nation in Power Five wins (90) since 2013. Alabama has 88 and Ohio State has 85 over that span....Clemson has beaten at least 12 Power Five opponents in 4 of the last 6 seasons. In college football history, that feat has only been achieved 4 other times. Alabama, LSU, Georgia and FSU each accomplished it once….The Tigers have won 10 or more games for 10 straight seasons, the third-longest streak in history behind FSU (14) and Alabama (13), which is also an active streak…The Tigers’ streak of 6 straight outright conference titles is tied with Oklahoma’s active streak for the third-longest in history. Oklahoma won 12 in the 40’s and 50’s and BYU won the WAC 7 straight times in the 70’s and 80’s. However, Clemson is the only program to have won 6 straight conference championship games….Clemson has finished in the top-4 of the AP Poll in 6 consecutive seasons, tied with Bud Wilkinson’s Oklahoma teams for the fourth-longest streak in history. FSU did so 13 straight seasons under the late great Bobby Bowden, while USC and Miami have each done so 7 straight seasons….Dabo Swinney has the best active win percentage in the nation at .802. Nick Saban is second at .799….Dabo’s 147 wins are tied with Nebraska legend Tom Osborne for fourth-most by a coach in his first 15 seasons, but Dabo is only in his 13th full season. He could quite conceivably top Urban Meyer’s record of 165 wins in his first 15 seasons….Dabo is fourth on the list of most games coached as an ACC head coach….Clemson has been ranked No.1 in the AP Poll in each of the last 6 seasons, which is the third-longest streak of all time behind Alabama (14) and Miami (7). Alabama’s streak is also active….Clemson had by far the longest active streak ranked in the top 5 of the AP Poll at 57 straight weeks before dropping to No.6 because of a pick-six in the opener against now No.2 Georgia. Alabama was second at 21, followed by Georgia and Oklahoma with just 4 each. If Clemson had remained in the AP top 5 until the end of the regular season, it would have surpassed Alabama’s all-time record of 68. Clemson’s streak of 97 straight weeks in the AP top 10, which ended this season, is the 3rd-longest streak in history behind Miami (137) and Alabama’s current streak of 103…Since 2011, Clemson has finished with an equal or higher ranking than its preseason ranking every year except for 2019 and 2020, the only two years the Tigers have been ranked No.1 preseason. The Tigers were ranked No.2 and No.3 in the 2021 preseason polls…

WAKE SYNOPSIS

No.13 Wake Forest would be firmly in the mix for a playoff spot if not for a 58-55 loss at UNC two weeks ago. As you’re probably aware, the loss did not count as an ACC game because it was scheduled as a non-conference game between the schools in separate divisions. That’s obviously unfortunate for the Tigers because if the game had counted toward Wake’s ACC record, the Tigers wouldn’t need Wake to lose at Boston College next week. As you know, Wake has been an offensive machine all season. It’s truly amazing what Head Coach Dave Clawson has built in Winston-Salem, and with all of the super seniors they have this season due to Covid, this season was made for a program like Wake, which is always built on fifth-year veterans, experience and player development. Most of us thought we’d never see a coach take Wake to the heights that Jim Grobe took the program 15 years ago, but Clawson has done that and then some. And quarterback Sam Hartman is the perfect embodiment of the Wake program. It seems like he’s been there for 10 years, and he was a baller even as a freshman starter back in 2018. The Charlotte native is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation, accounting for 39 touchdowns this season, which is 2nd in the Power Five, with just 8 interceptions. He had just 5 INT’s before throwing 3 last week in their 45-42 win over NC State. Hartman is averaging over 300 pass yards per game this season and has completed 59% of his passes. More importantly, he has complete control over this well-oiled offensive machine that has averaged 54 points and 584 yards over the last 4 games. Wake has the nation’s No.2 scoring offense at 44.7 points per game, trailing only Ohio State. The Deacs are No.7 in total offense, averaging 498.4 yards per game. Wake is the only team in the nation to score at least 35 points in every game this season, and the Deacs scored 45 last week against an NC State team that was allowing just 16 points per game. They are No.2 in the Power Five with 34 plays of 30 yards or more, just one less than UNC, ironically, which is why they aren’t undefeated.

Wake has perfected a unique style of the RPO, with a delayed mesh point at the line of scrimmage. Harman will hold the ball in the back’s belly for a full 2 or 3 seconds before handing it off or pulling it to pass. This puts stress on defenses because they aren’t able to commit one way or the other, run versus pass, and it allows Hartman to wait until the defense commits or shows its hand before making a decision. Wake has employed this unique style for the past few years and has made an art out of it. The Deacs’ running game took a blow when leading rusher Christian Beal-Smith injured his foot in the loss at UNC. He did not play against NC State last week and will likely miss this game as well. He was averaging 5 yards per carry with 7 touchdowns this season. However, 5’10, 204-pound freshman Justice Ellison (#14) was not far behind Beal-Smith in production. He is only 56 yards short of Beal-Smith and averages 5.1 yards per carry with 6 rush touchdowns and a TD catch. 5’11, 200-pound sophomore Christian Turner (#0) isn’t far behind either, averaging 4.2 yards on his 86 carries with 3 touchdowns.

The real threat from Wake comes from their receivers, though. It’s the most talented group of receivers the Tigers will have faced this season. They are big, physical and fast. They can get behind the defense and win the jump balls. They are also good at drawing pass interference calls and separating without drawing offensive pass interference penalties. They are led by AT Perry (#9) and Jaquarii Roberson (#5). Perry is a 6’5, 206-pound sophomore with 47 catches for 918 yards and 11 touchdowns in 10 games. His 19.5 yards per catch is No.16 nationally. Roberson is a 6’1, 182-pound junior with 51 catches for 860 yards and 8 touchdowns. He averages almost 17 yards per catch. Freshman slot receivers Taylor Morin (#83) and Ke’Shawn Williams (#13) have far fewer catches, but they average 14.5 and 15.8 yards per catch, respectively, and combine for 7 more touchdowns. Wake is the only team in the nation with 4 receivers averaging 14.5 yards or more per catch. The good news is that Wake is one of the few teams the Tigers face that doesn’t have a prolific tight end, which has been one of the bugaboos for the Clemson defense over the years. Whiteheart (#85) and Chapman (#23) have combined for 16 catches with a touchdown apiece this season.

With all of those offensive accolades, the bright side for the Tigers is that Wake has one of the worst defenses in the nation. They win their games by shootout, allowing 56 points to Army a few weeks ago and 58 points in their loss at UNC two weeks ago. Wake is ranked No.87 in scoring defense, allowing 29 points per game, and No.109 in total defense, allowing 440.1 yards per game. The Deacs’ run defense is No.112, allowing 201.9 yards per game, and the pass defense is ranked No.82, allowing 238.2 yards per game. So this game is the ultimate strength-on-strength, weakness-on-weakness matchup. It’s the irresistible force of Wake’s offense against the immovable object of the Tigers’ defense. Surprisingly, Wake does average 2.9 sacks per game, however, which is tied with Texas A&M for 25th in the nation, so that will be something to watch on Saturday. DJ doesn’t have full mobility with his sprained knee, and although the Tigers didn’t allow a sack against a bad UConn defense last week, DJ was pressured in the pocket and forced to throw the ball away a few times. The Tigers’ offensive line will need to give him a clean pocket! Wake also has 5 different players in the secondary with an interception this season, and they average one INT per game, which is No.32 nationally. The Deacs are No.12 in turnover margin at +0.9 per game, and that is a big reason for their 9-1 record.

As usual, the Tigers will face a veteran kicker who’s one of the best in the nation. Junior Nick Sciba, a South Carolina native, is 16-18 on field goals this season and perfect between 30 and 50 yards. His season long is 46 yards and career long is 49.

CLEMSON STATUS

For the 11th consecutive game this season, the injury plague continues to haunt the Tigers. Justyn Ross was knocked out of the UConn game in the first half last week, and Dabo told us on Sunday night that he had been playing with a stress fracture in his foot all season since the opener against Georgia. That explained the 30-yard drop he had at Syracuse, when his foot got caught in the turf and he limped off the field. Dabo benched this top two running backs, Shipley and Pace, last week in order to keep them healthy, and he probably wishes he did the same with Ross. So the Tigers will be minus their top 3 receivers—Ross, Ngata and Ladson—and starting two true freshmen and a sophomore against the No.2 scoring offense in the nation. That sums up the season in a nut shell! Starting offensive guard Will Putnam should be back, as well as staring corner Andrew Booth, who’s missed the last two games with a stinger. Of course, DJ is also playing with a sprained knee, which takes away a big part of the Tigers’ offense. You also have to wonder how the knee is affecting his accuracy on passes. He made some brilliant throws last week but also some terrible ones. And the Tigers likely won’t be able to throw backup Taisun Phommachanh into the mix because he injured his throwing shoulder last week. All it will take is one big hit on DJ’s bad leg for former walk-on sophomore Hunter Helms to be at the helm of the Tigers’ offense! TE Davis Allen has been the one consistent player on offense who has managed to avoid injury this season (knock on wood), and they cannot afford to lose him with Galloway already out for the season and Sage Ennis injured. Freshman TE Jake Briningstool is starting to emerge and scored his first touchdown last week, but the Tigers need Allen.

Be sure to check HERE about two hours before kickoff for a final player availability report!

PREDICTION

This is a tough one to predict with all that is on the line for both teams and all the injuries at play for the Tigers. However, the one thing I feel confident about is Brent Venables and the defense, which has been the one constant for the Tigers all season long. That side of the ball has suffered significant injuries like the offense, but they have been able to overcome the injuries and carry the team week after week. The four-play goal line stand on the road at Louisville, against one of the most dynamic quarterbacks since Lamar Jackson, was one of the most incredible things I’ve seen. This defense may be the best in the nation, and it’s even tougher in the red zone. The Tigers are No.3 in scoring defense at 15.3 points per game, and they’d be No.2 if not for several scores given up by the offense and special teams. They held Georgia, with its starting quarterback, to 3 points. They held future NFL first-rounder Kenny Pickett and Pitt to 20 points on the road, which was 28 points less than their season average. I think Skalski, Turner and Davis, playing in Death Valley for the last time, will play with their hair on fire, and the front seven will blow up that delayed mesh all day long. Venables will bring blitzes from all over the field to keep Hartman confused and uncomfortable. Wake will most likely hit some big plays in the passing game, but as long as the Tigers can keep them out of the end zone and settling for field goals, the game will be in reach for the offense. I think Shipley, Pace and Mafah will have a big game against that Wake run defense that was torched by Army, and that will allow the Tigers to score just enough points. The key to the game is turnovers, and I cannot emphasize that enough. If there’s one game in which the Tigers need to surrender zero turnovers, it’s this one. As I mentioned, Wake makes its living in the turnover margin. The Tigers can’t afford to give Wake extra possessions or field position, and certainly not points, as they did against Pitt and Georgia. They also muffed a punt to give Louisville points. That cannot happen on Saturday if the Tigers are going to win. That said, there is a reason that the Tigers have won 33 straight games in Death Valley, undefeated at home for almost 5 straight seasons. They are 31-7 in one-score games since 2011—by far the best percentage in the nation over that period—and I think they will add one more to the win column on Saturday. The Tigers extend the nation’s longest home win streak to 34 games as a birthday present for Dabo and send Skalski, Spector, Turner, Will Swinney, Darien Rencher, Will Spiers and the other seniors out in style, keeping their ACC Championship hopes alive.

The Prowl toward a 7th consecutive ACC Title continues…

CLEMSON    27        Wake Forest 20