WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.5 CLEMSON vs. NO.10 NC STATE
- 2022-09-30 20:50:48
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Welcome to the Textile Bowl edition of What We Are Hearing!
Well, Hurricane Ian is headed our straight for Clemson, but
it won’t dampen the excitement on Saturday, as ESPN College GameDay will be in
town for a top-10 ACC Atlantic showdown between the Tigers and Wolfpack! This
will be the 8th time Clemson has hosted GameDay but the first time since the
Miami game in 2020, and it will be the first time the show will broadcast from
Bowman Field since the Louisville classic in 2016. The show was broadcast from
inside Death Valley for the 2019 opener against Georgia Tech as well as the
2020 Miami game. This will be the 22nd time the Tigers have been featured on
GameDay since 2015. They are 6-1 all-time when hosting. This weekend has the
feel of that epic 2015 hurricane game against Notre Dame when Dabo famously
coined the phrase, “BYOG: Bring Your Own Guts!” GameDay was on Bowman Field in
the pouring rain that morning as well, and I can say I’ve never been as wet in
my life as I was that day for about 16 hours from covering GameDay and the game
that night. Incidentally, Dabo is 10-1 in rain games as a head coach! His only
loss—which I saw from the drenched stands in Death Valley—was in his first full
season in 2009 against TCU. The Tigers led in the 4th quarter but lost 14-10
thanks to a tipped pass from Andy Dalton for a 25-yard touchdown. It rained for
every home game that season, and I attended every one of them with my poncho. I
remember the aisles were like waterfalls during the Georgia Tech game, and the
Boston College game started at noon and ended at about 8:00 with 2 or 3 weather
delays. The Tigers won that game with 6 field goals by Richard Jackson! I’m
sure the rain on Saturday will bring back all of those memories for many of you
too. Christian Wilkins will be the guest picker on GameDay, and fans may arrive
as early as 6:30 am to reserve a spot on Bowman Field. I will be backstage to
bring you some photos and video from the show, so be sure to click HERE for all
of that content. You will also find my Friday Zoom interview with Rece Davis
there!
Last season, it was Wake Forest and NC State that shook up
the ACC Atlantic and took the division from Clemson for the first time in 7
years. NC State deprived the Tigers of a 7th straight division title by winning
in double-overtime in Raleigh, thanks in large part to injuries for the Tigers,
including Will Shipley, Bryan Bresee and James Skalski. The Tigers defeated No.10
Wake comfortably, but the Deacs still won the division because it was their
only conference loss, and the Tigers lost another close game at eventual ACC
Champion Pittsburgh, which Wake and NC State did not have to play in the
regular season. So as fate would have it, the schedule interestingly set up for
a mini revenge tour for the Tigers with back-to-back games against Wake and NC
State this season. The Tigers exacted their revenge on the Deacons with an
epic, instant classic up at Winston-Salem last week. It was one of the best
combined performances by two quarterbacks that you will ever see, as DJ and
fifth-year starter Sam Hartman amassed 708 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and
zero interceptions. Hartman had one more TD than his counterpart, but DJ came
out on top with 2 TD passes in overtime and the 51-45 win. The Tigers were
missing 5 starters on the defensive side, including Jones, Greene and Mukuba
from the secondary, and that proved to be trouble against one of the best, most
experienced quarterbacks in the country. Freshmen Toriano Pride and Jeadyn Lukus—mostly
Pride—had a baptism by fire, and Hartman took advantage. Co-starters Nate Wiggins
and Fred Davis also had a miserable game with several pass interference and
defensive holding calls, and even when they had decent coverage, they couldn’t
stop Hartman’s pinpoint accuracy and the talented Wake receivers. The 120 yards
in penalties given up by the Tigers were the most in a win since the 2013
Orange Bowl against Ohio State. With Wake loading the box to stop the run after
Will Shipley’s 50-yard run on the first play of the game, the only way the
Tigers were going to win is if DJ played the game of his career, and that’s
exactly what he did with the pressure on! It was a better performance, in my
opinion, than his record-setting game at Notre Dame Stadium as a freshman in
2020, which was a double-overtime loss. Amazingly, this was the Tigers’ first
overtime win on the road since 2009 at No.10 Miami. They lost in overtime at
eventual National Champion Auburn in 2010 after leading by 17, thanks to Auburn
breaking QB Kyle Parker’s ribs after the play was over. Chandler Catanzaro
missed the game-tying field goal in overtime after his make was negated on a
penalty. The Tigers lost at No.1 FSU, the defending champs, in overtime in 2014
thanks to a last-minute fumble by CJ Davidson in the red zone to prevent a
game-winning field goal at the end of regulation. So the Tigers had lost 3
straight overtime games on the road in painful fashion to 3 highly ranked
teams, including a couple national champions, and thanks to some big-time
injuries. This was another overtime game on the road against a highly ranked
team with several critical injuries, but this time, the Tigers found a way to
win!
Dabo said after the game that he hoped those in the media who
doubted and criticized DJ would take ownership and tear up those articles. Well,
I didn’t have to do that since I might be the only one in the media who went on
record with a preseason prediction that DJ would have a big bounce-back season
and retain his starting job. Many Clemson fans wanted to see Cade take over,
and most of the media catered to their clamors, but from what I saw from DJ at
practice in August, I just had a gut feeling that he would silence the critics.
He showed significant improvement in the first 3 game this season, throwing just
one interception (a deflection) and making several great plays with his arm and
legs, but this past game was a signature one for him. He performed like a
Heisman winner—like many expected him to play before the 2020 season when he was
the third-favorite to win the Heisman.
The Tigers are ranked No.5 in both polls this week after starting
the season No.4. The voters ridiculously moved Michigan ahead of the Tigers
even though Michigan’s first 3 games were at home against 3 of the bottom 6
teams in the nation, including 2 of the worst 3, according to ESPN. Heck, Vandy
beat Hawaii worse on the road than Michigan did at home. The Tigers didn’t play
any juggernauts in the first 3 weeks either, but Clemson, which has the most
Power Five wins since 2013—more than Alabama—should have much more benefit of
the doubt than Michigan. I guess the pollsters have short memories and have
already forgotten that Michigan was humiliated in the playoff 9 months ago by the
same Georgia team that Clemson held to 10 points (3 not counting the pick-six).
And it’s not like Clemson has shown the same offensive struggles it had in the
first 7 games last season. The Tigers currently have the No.13 scoring offense
in the nation! Last week, Michigan finally played a team that wasn’t one of the
10 worst in the country, but its 7-point home win over Maryland wasn’t as
impressive as the Tigers’ road win against No.16 Wake. Perhaps Michigan will
finally be exposed at Iowa this week, but I doubt it because Iowa has the worst
offense in the nation. Be that as it may, the Tigers will eventually jump back
into the top 4 by the time it matters. NC State, on the other hand, has
breached the top 10 for the first time in 20 years, since Philip Rivers was the
Pack’s quarterback, and this is the first top-10 matchup in NC State history. How
far the old Textile Bowl has come!
On to the matchup….
MISCELLANEOUS
Clemson leads the all-time series with NC State 59-29-1. The
Tigers won the first-ever meeting in 1899 by a score of 24-0 in Rock Hill, SC. Dabo
is 7-1 against NC State Head Coach Dave Doeren. The double-overtime loss in
Raleigh last season broke the Tigers’ 8-game win streak against the Pack. The
Tigers had won 15 of the previous 16 meetings. The Tigers have not hosted NC State
since 2018 because the two teams did not play in 2020 due to Covid. It was the
first time the teams did not play since 1970…This is the 27th matchup of AP
top-10 teams in Clemson history. The Tigers are 14-12 in such games. It is the 22nd
under Dabo Swinney, and he is 12-9 in top-10 matchups…Clemson has won its last
7 games against opponents that beat the Tigers in their previous meeting…Clemson
has won 10 straight games, the longest active win streak in the nation. It is
the Tigers’ 11th win streak of 10 or more games in program history…The Tigers
have won 36 straight games in Death Valley, the longest active home win streak
in the nation. No member of this Clemson team has lost a home game. The streak
is the 14th longest of all time. A win over NC State on Saturday
will tie Clemson with FSU for the longest home win streak in ACC history…Clemson
is 55-1 at home in the CFP era, also the best such record in the nation….The
Tigers have won 26 straight home games against non-conference opponents. The
last such loss was to South Carolina in 2012…The Tigers have won 63 straight
games when leading at halftime…Clemson has won 36 consecutive games as an AP
top-5 team against unranked opponents, the longest active streak in the nation…Clemson
is 97-3 against unranked teams since the start of the 2012 season…Dabo won his 154th
game last week. He took the sixth-fewest games (186) to reach 150 wins. Urban
Meyer holds the record at 176 games, followed by Barry Switzer, Gil Dobie,
Fielding Yost and Joe Paterno. Switzer and Paterno are the only ones who, like
Dabo, won all 150 games at one school…. Clemson has the second-most wins and second-best win percentage
since 2015 behind Alabama. The Tigers are 93-10 over that period while Alabama
is 96-8. Ohio State is 3rd with a record of 83-10 since 2015. Clemson is also
2nd in wins since 2011 with a record of 135-21. Alabama is 144-14 and Ohio
State is 127-20….Clemson has the most Power Five wins (95) since 2013. Alabama
is 2nd with 93 and Ohio State is 3rd with 87….Clemson holds the all-time record
for most wins over a 5-year span with 69 from 2015-2019….Dabo Swinney has the
best active win percentage in the nation (minimum 10 years) at .811. Nick Saban
is second at .802 and Jimbo Fisher is third at .759….Dabo is currently 12th on
the all-time win percentage list but climbing quickly. He could move into 11th with
a win this week, just one spot below legendary Oklahoma Head Coach Bud
Wilkinson….Dabo’s 154 wins are already the third-most of any coach in his first
15 seasons, but Dabo is only in his 14th full season. By the end of
the 2023 season, Dabo should topple Urban Meyer’s record of 165 wins in his
first 15 seasons….Dabo has the most active wins (154) that are all with one
school. Mike Gundy is 2nd with 152 at Oklahoma State. Dabo is 9th on the active
win list, one win ahead of Mike Leach….With a win in the Cheez-It Bowl over
Iowa State last season, Dabo tied Bobby Bowden for most bowl wins (11) by any
ACC coach in history….
NC STATE SYNOPSIS
For all the August hype around preseason ACC Player of the Year
Devin Leary and NC State, the Wolfpack got off to a bumpy start to the season,
barely escaping a loss at ECU in the opener thanks to a missed field goal. They
regained their mojo the next week with a 55-3 home win over Charleston Southern
and then won another home game against a decent Texas Tech team 27-14. They
blew out UConn, one of the worst teams in the country, at home last week, so
this will be the Pack’s first road game since the opening-week scare at ECU.
And let’s face it: a noon game at ECU is not Death Valley at night!
QB Devin Leary was named preseason ACC Player of the Year
for good reason. He is one of the best returning quarterbacks in the nation and
a potential first-round draft pick. He averaged 286 pass yards per game last
season and was 10th nationally in TD passes (35) with just 5 interceptions. He
probably would have had 2 or 3 more TD’s last season, but their bowl game
against UCLA was canceled. Leary has 9 touchdowns against 2 interceptions so
far this season. The good news for the Tigers is that Leary is one of the least
athletic quarterbacks they will face, although he is good at manipulating the
pocket and avoiding sacks. He’s been sacked just once per game this season.
Leary is about as savvy as they get and similar in a lot of ways to Sam Hartman,
who the Tigers faced last week at Wake.
The Pack’s rushing attack is led by 6’0, 210-pound sophomore
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (#0). He’s a Jersey boy like Leary and is off to a great
start to the season, averaging 6.5 yards per carry with 3 touchdowns. He’s
scored in 3 of their 4 games but has yet to break 100 yards in a game. He’ll
split the carries with Jordan Houston (#3), a 5’10, 192-pound junior, who is
averaging 4.2 yards per carry. The only player with a rush TD besides Sumo-Karngbaye
is QB Devin Leary with two. Leary has also thrown the ball to the running back
effectively. He has 6 catches for 102 yards and a TD.
In the passing game, State lost its leading receiver from
last season, Emeka Emezie, who had 14 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown
against the Tigers in that double-overtime win. This season, the straw that stirs
the drink is 6’0, 195-pound slot receiver Thayer Thomas. The senior has 15
catches for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns this season, and he’s also thrown a
38-yard TD this season on a trick play. He does not have any run plays yet this
season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on a reverse, jet-sweep or
end-around on Saturday. Thomas only had 5 catches for 18 yards in last year’s
meeting but scored a big touchdown in the first overtime. Devin Carter (#88) caught
the game-winning TD pass in double-overtime, and he is back as well. He
actually scored 2 TD’s in that game among his 5 catches for 54 yards. The 6’3,
215-pound junior has 9 catches for 117 yards in 3 games this season, scoring
his first touchdown last week. They have not utilized the tight end in the
passing game much so far—just 4 completions and no scores. Interestingly, they
have a couple identical twin freshman tight ends in Ced (#47) and Fred (#48) Seabrough.
State has one of the most experienced teams in the country
with 10 returning starters on defense. Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson plays
a lot of dime coverage with 6 defensive backs, so that will be a different
challenge for DJ. State already has 7 interceptions this season, which is tied
for 6th nationally. Sophomore CB Aydan White (#3) and senior DB Tyler
Baker-Williams (#13) have 2 apiece. Up front, 6’3, 300-pound sophomore DT C.J.
Clark (#5) leads the team with 2 sacks. They have 5 players with one sack each,
including the aforementioned duo from the secondary, White and Baker-Williams.
Junior LB Drake Thomas (#32) leads the team with 24 tackles. This will easily
be the best defense that the Tigers have faced so far this season.
On special teams, this game will feature a couple of top Groza
Award candidates. Fifth-year starter Christopher Dunn has a career percentage
of 81.3% and is 5-5 this season with a long of 48. His career long is 53, but he’s
only 2-8 from 50 plus in his career. He is a perfect 187-187 on PAT’s. State
has a dangerous punt returner in the aforementioned Thayer Thomas. He only has
4 returns this season but broke one for 38 yards. He averaged about 10 yards
per return last season, which was among the best in the nation. The Tigers didn’t
give up any punt returns last week, but they gave up a couple long ones to LA
Tech the week before, so hopefully they’ve shored things up within the coverage
unit.
Through 4 games, the Pack ranks No.8 in scoring defense
(11.8 points per game), No.10 in rush defense (81.75 yards/game), No.25 in pass
defense (179.8 yards/game) and No.13 in total defense (261.5 yards/game). They are
No.7 on 3rd down conversions (25%) but only No.81 in sacks at 1.75 per game.
They’ve only allowed opponents in the red zone 5 times in 4 games. State is No.18
in turnover margin at plus 1 per game.
Conversely, the Pack’s offense is No.43 in scoring offense
(36 points per game). Their rush offense is No.70 (157.5 yards/game), pass
offense is No.62 (253.5 yards/game) and total offense is No.69 (411
yards/game). This is somewhat ironic because not many expected the Tigers’ offense
to be ranked so much higher than State’s with Devin Leary. The Pack’s defense
was expected to be ranked as highly as it is, but the Tigers’ defense is surprisingly
ranked much lower than State right now. That, of course, is due to the anomalous
game at Wake last week in which the Tigers gave up 45 points and 447 total
yards.
CLEMSON STATUS
I tried to get some injury updates from Dabo over the last
few days, but he was playing it close to the vest. We do know for sure that DT
Tre Williams will play for the first time since the opener, in which he was a
force inside, but we will have to wait for our availability report a couple
hours before kickoff to know whether DE Xavier Thomas, CB Sheridan Jones, CB
Malcolm Greene and S Andrew Mukuba will play. If at least 2 of those 3 guys
from the secondary can play, it will be a big shot in the arm for the defense!
The pass rushing ability of Xavier Thomas would also help the secondary
immensely. He looked practically unblockable in August before he was injured.
I spoke with Will Shipley on Tuesday, and he was raring to
go! He said it was going to be hard waiting all day Saturday for the primetime
kickoff. Remember, Shipley scored a touchdown at State last season before
leaving the game with a knee injury. He also dropped a screen pass from DJ on
the opening possession that probably would have gone for a touchdown or at
least a huge gain to give the Tigers an early lead. Shipley, a native of just
outside Charlotte, has about 25 relatives with NC State ties, so this a hugely
personal game for him. He is the first Tiger since 1950 to score 2 TD’s in each
of the first 3 games, and he added another crucial one last week to tie the
game in the 4th quarter on 3rd down. Interestingly, I asked Shipley about that amazing
effort play in which he broke 3 tackles and laid horizontal to extend the ball
across the goal line. He told me that he actually considered that a mistake
because it wasn’t 4th down, and he put the ball in jeopardy. How many times
have we seen players lose the ball in the same situation, just before the ball
crosses the goal line? It happened to work out for the Tigers, but Dabo confirmed
to me on Wednesday that they teach their players to avoid putting the ball in
jeopardy like that. With a wet ball on Saturday, let’s hope none of the Tigers have
to take any similar chances with protecting the football!
The national media all questioned how much better the Tigers’
offense could possibly be this season with DJ at quarterback and a new
offensive coordinator. Well, it has to be the most improved unit in the
country! The Tigers have the No.13 scoring offense and have scored the
second-most points in program history over the first 4 games. More than any team
led by Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson or Tajh Boyd, in fact. Only the 2000 team
with Woody Dantzler and Rich Rodriguez scored more in the first 4 games. The
Tigers are also No.6 nationally in 3rd down conversions at 54.69%. They are tied
with Michigan for No.1 on 4th down at 3-3. Georgia and Ohio State are the only
other teams that are perfect on 4th down at 2-2 each. A big part of the Tigers’
offensive improvement, aside from DJ obviously, has been the tight ends in the
passing game. Davis Allen had a great season last year, but sophomore Jake
Briningstool has really come into his own, and the two of them are playing at
an extremely high level right now. They are a big threat in the red zone
particularly. Davis Allen had 2 big touchdown catches last week, including the
game winner, and Jake scored the first TD of the game on a scramble drill in
the back of the end zone. The Tigers have had several scramble drill touchdowns
this season, and that’s a testament to DJ’s patience in the pocket, the
offensive line providing him lots of time and the receivers doing an excellent
job working to get open.
The biggest question is whether the corners will be able to
bounce back from the game they had last week—especially if Jones and/or Greene
are unable to play again. On Monday, we spoke with Nate Wiggins, who had a
miserable game but redeemed himself with the game-winning PBU in the end zone. He
was as confident as ever in his abilities, and that short memory is what you
like to see from a corner. Wiggins, Fred Davis and freshmen Toriano Pride and
Jeadyn Lukus will have to do a much better job at the top of their routes and
not letting receivers get behind them. That resulted in big completions and
penalty after penalty last week, which cannot happen again. CB Coach Mike Reed,
who incidentally came to Clemson from NC State, is one of the best in the business,
and I have to believe he’ll have them playing better this week. Also, if it’s a
wet ball, that might affect Leary’s accuracy in the passing game.
Finally, Groza Award candidate BT Potter has been outstanding
so far. I knew it was a big deal when he announced that he would be returning
this season because kickers of his experience and reliability are invaluable,
and he could have easily signed with an NFL team this year. Potter is a perfect
7-7, including 3-3 at Wake last week with a 52-yard game-tying field goal at
the end of regulation. That’s as clutch as you get! Remarkably, he is 8-10 in
his career from 50 yards or more. New long snapper Philip Florenzo and new holder
Drew Swinney have also done an excellent job. However, the weather could very
well affect Dabo’s decision-making during the course of the game, as he
acknowledged to me on Wednesday after practice. He made the right call on 4th
and 4 at Wake to kick the 52-yarder, but given the same situation this week, he
might decide to go for it or punt based on the wind, rain and field conditions,
so keep that in mind!
PREDICTION
My prediction was only 3 points off for the Tigers’ point
total last week, but I was way off on Wake’s. If I had known that Jones,
Greene, Mukuba, Thomas and Williams would all be out, I probably would have predicted
Wake would score in the 30’s. Even with those players out, I wouldn’t have
expected 120 penalty yards against the Tigers. The weather makes this game a
little tougher to predict—especially since we have no idea how bad the weather
will be. If it turns into a monsoon and an absolute slop fest, all bets are off
because it will drastically affect both passing offenses, and we could see
several turnovers. That being said, I like the Tigers’ chances if it comes to
that because I think they have a decided advantage on the line of scrimmage and
the ability to both stop the Pack’s running game and run the ball with Shipley.
Defensively, we might see Goodwin go to more zone coverage than we’ve seen in
the past—particularly if Jones and/or Greene are still out. I’m going to assume
that, while it is sure to be a wet field and wet ball, the weather won’t be so
bad as to eliminate the passing game entirely. In either case, I think the
Tigers will win with the help of an electric Death Valley crowd, extending the
nation’s longest home win streak to 37 and tying FSU for the all-time ACC
record. The Tigers avenge last season’s heartbreaking double-overtime loss,
extend the nation’s longest win streak to 11 and take the driver’s seat in the
ACC Atlantic!
The Prowl toward a 7th College Football Playoff and 4th
National Title continues….
CLEMSON 34 NC State 20
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