WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.4 CLEMSON at NOTRE DAME

Welcome to another edition of What We Are Hearing!

It’s hard to believe it’s November already, but here we are, and the Tigers are entering their championship phase of the season. They can actually clinch the division title on Saturday if Syracuse loses to FSU! Otherwise, the Tigers can clinch by beating Louisville in Death Valley next week on Military Appreciation Day.

The Tigers are coming off a much-needed bye and traveling to South Bend for just the second time in almost 50 years to take on Notre Dame. Of course, who could forget the epic instant-classic in 2020, a heartbreaking double-overtime loss for the Tigers with DJ making his first career road start as a freshman and setting an all-time passing record for Notre Dame Stadium. OG Walker Parks was also a freshman that year, and he told me the other day that he could still remember the Notre Dame fans (about 20,000 with the Covid restrictions) rushing the field and getting in Trevor Lawrence’s face after the game, and many of the current players still have that bad taste in their mouths. Of course, the Tigers soon got their revenge in the ACC Championship Game by taking the Irish to the woodshed with Trevor Lawrence, James Skalski and Tyler Davis, who all missed the previous meeting.

 

The Tigers, of course, were ranked No.4 in the first CFP Rankings of the season on Tuesday night to the surprise of everyone at ESPN and other TV media, but not to yours truly. I’ve been saying for weeks that the committee would see what I see and rank the Tigers above Michigan, right where they are at No.4 because all of the criteria support just that. The Tigers have 3 ranked wins versus just one for Michigan (as well as Ohio State). And the wins over Wake, NC State and Syracuse were all better than what their current rankings would indicate because NC State was a legitimate top-10 team with Devin Leary when the Tigers beat them and still would be had he not been injured the following week. The same thing happened with Syracuse, losing its starting QB the week after the Tigers beat them, and Cuse lost to Notre Dame as a result. Wake, who the Tigers beat on the road, is a legitimate top-10 or top-15 team but dropped 10 spots after losing at Louisville because of a fluke 8-turnover game, including 2 pick-sixes. That won’t happen again, and the Deacs will probably win the rest of their games. On top of all that, the Tigers’ strength of record is No.4! How can anyone complain about the No.4 strength of record being ranked at No.4 with a straight face?! In fact, the Tigers’ strength of record was No.2 before last Saturday’s aforementioned fluke losses by Wake and Syracuse. The talking heads and Michigan fans can whine and complain all they want, but they don’t have a leg to stand on. Michigan has beaten up on some of the worst teams in the country, their second-best win is a 7-point win over Maryland and best win is at home over an overrated Penn State team in the horrendous Big Ten. Having said all that, the math is simple for the Tigers: they need to win their last 4 games and the ACC Championship. If they do, they are a lock for the playoff. If they don’t, they will need a lot of help to get in as a one-loss team, and it’s very unlikely they do.

 

This will be the 5th meeting between the two schools since 2015, and Dabo is 3-1 against the Irish. He’s beaten them in 3 different venues—Death Valley, the ACC Championship and the CFP Semifinal Cotton Bowl—but would love to beat them on that hallowed field in South Bend! First-year head coach Marcus Freeman is desperate for a signature win to put his stamp on the program, and the stakes couldn’t be bigger for the Tigers, who likely have no margin for error and need to win out in order to make a return to the College Football Playoff. We might have to start calling this the “Tim Bourret Bowl” from here on out!

 

On to the matchup…

 

MISCELLANEOUS

Clemson leads the all-time series with Notre Dame 4-2, and Dabo is 3-1 against the Irish…Clemson is the only program in the nation with a winning record (minimum 2 meetings) versus Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oklahoma…Clemson has the most road wins (34) in the nation since 2015. The next-closest Power Five team is Ohio State (29), followed by Alabama and Oklahoma (28)…With their last win, the Tigers set a new ACC record for consecutive home wins (38) and tied Knute Rockne’s Notre Dame teams for the 10th longest streak all-time…A win Saturday would give Clemson a perfect record in true road games for the 10th time in program history…The Tigers’ double-overtime loss in their last trip to Notre Dame ended their 36-game regular season win streak, tied for the 4th longest such streak since 1936. It also ended the Tigers’ 28-game ACC win streak, as Notre Dame was a conference member in 2020…Notre Dame is riding a 26-game regular season win streak against ACC opponents since 2018. Clemson has beaten Notre Dame twice in postseason play during that span…Clemson has the nation’s longest active win streak at 14 games. A win Saturday would tie the third-longest win streak in program history (1947-49)…A win Saturday would be the 7th time Clemson has opened a season 9-0…Clemson has the longest wactive win streak (38) against unranked teams while ranked in the AP top 5…Clemson is 26-4 in night games since 2018, including winning the last 9 straight…Clemson has won 10 straight games following a bye. The Tigers’ only loss in the last 15 such games was in overtime at defending champ FSU in 2014, after the Tigers fumbled at the end of regulation with a game-winning field goal in their pocket… The Tigers have won 66 straight games when leading at halftime…Clemson is 99-3 against unranked teams since the start of the 2012 season…Dabo won his 158th game as a head coach last week. He took the sixth-fewest games (186) to reach 150 wins. Urban Meyer holds the record at 176 games, followed by Barry Switzer, Gil Dobie, Fielding Yost and Joe Paterno. Switzer and Paterno are the only ones who, like Dabo, won all 150 games at one school….Clemson has the second-most wins and second-best win percentage since 2015 behind Alabama. The Tigers are 97-10 over that period while Alabama is 99-9. Ohio State is 3rd with a record of 87-10 since 2015. Clemson is also 2nd in wins since 2011 with a record of 139-21. Alabama is 147-15 and Ohio State is 131-20….Clemson has the most Power Five wins (99) since 2013. Alabama is 2nd with 96 and Ohio State is 3rd with 91….Clemson holds the all-time record for most wins over a 5-year span with 69 from 2015-2019….Dabo Swinney has the best active win percentage in the nation (minimum 10 years) at .814. Nick Saban is second at .801, Kansas Head Coach Lance Leipold is 3rd (.746). Jimbo Fisher and Brian Kelly round out the top 5….Dabo is currently tied for 11th on the all-time win percentage list but climbing quickly. He’s just one spot below legendary Oklahoma Head Coach Bud Wilkinson, who Dabo could pass for 10th next season….Dabo’s 158 wins are already the third-most of any coach in his first 15 seasons, but Dabo is only in his 14^th full season. By the end of the 2023 season, Dabo should topple Urban Meyer’s record of 165 wins in his first 15 seasons….Dabo has the most active wins (158) with one school. Mike Gundy is 2nd with 154 at Oklahoma State. Dabo is 9th on the active win list, 3 more than Mike Leach….With a win in the Cheez-It Bowl over Iowa State last season, Dabo tied Bobby Bowden for most bowl wins (11) by any ACC coach in history….

 

NOTRE DAME SYNOPSIS

Notre Dame has been somewhat of an enigma this season. The Irish looked great in blowout wins at UNC, at Syracuse, against BYU in Vegas and, to an extent, a close loss at Ohio State to open the season. However, they also lost at home to Marshall and 1-4 Stanford. Perhaps they were inconsistent early in the season due to the new coaching staff and they’ve put those games behind them. One constant they have, though, is Offensive Coordinator and former Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees, who is one of the best in the business. The Irish also lost their starting QB, Tyler Buchner, early in the season, and that could have something to do with their early struggles as well. Backup Drew Pyne, now the starter, had experience prior to this season, and there was not a big gap between the two from a talent standpoint. Pyne has completed 61.8% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He is a capable runner but not going to wow you with his athleticism. He has rushed for 107 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, this season and has not scored a rushing touchdown. He certainly doesn’t present the threat that Florida State’s Jordan Travis or Syracuse’s Garrett Shrader did as running quarterbacks.

When it comes to the Notre Dame offense, it begins and ends with All-American tight end Michael Mayer (#87). I remember writing about how talented he was as a freshman when the Tigers played Notre Dame in 2020, and now he’s a junior and the best tight end in the nation. He can absolutely take over a game like he did against BYU a few weeks ago. The 6’4, 265-pounder had 11 catches for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game. BYU simply had no answer for him. Surprisingly, he had his least productive game of the season last week in their 41-24 win at Syracuse, with just 3 catches for 54 yards and no scores. He only had 5 catches for 60 yards in the loss to Stanford, also with no scores. On the season, Mayer has 47 catches for 580 yards and 6 touchdowns. If the Tigers can keep Mayer out of the end zone and under 100 yards, they will probably win the game. It’s as simple as that.

 

Notre Dame’s second-leading pass catcher is 6’1, 195-pound sophomore WR Lorenzo Styles (#4). He has just 24 catches for 292 yards and one score this season. 6’1, 215-pound freshman WR Jayden Thomas (#83), a Dallas, Georgia native, and 5’11, 182-pound senior WR Braden Lenzy (#0) have combined for just 24 catches and 3 scores.

 

The Irish have a 3-headed monster at running back and use them interchangeably. Sophomore Audric Estime (#7) is a load to tackle at 5’11 and 227 pounds. He has 99 carries for 558 yards and 8 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per rush. His longest run of the season is 46 yards. Logan Diggs (#3) is a 6’0, 214-pound sophomore with 95 carries and one TD, averaging 4.5 yards per rush and a long of 33 yards. 5’9, 197-pound junior Chris Tyree (#25) played against the Tigers in 2020 and has 78 carries for 322 yards and 2 scores this season, averaging 4.1 yards per rush. The Irish have a big, strong offensive line, so the battle in the trenches between that group and the Tigers’ deep, powerful defensive line will be the strength-on-strength match to watch!

 

The Irish had a couple of high first-round draft picks the last time the Tigers played them in 2020, but safety Kyle Hamilton and LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who had a huge fumble-six in the double-overtime game, are long gone. Their defense this season doesn’t have any stars of that caliber, but they still have plenty of talented play-makers, such as junior DE Isaiah Foskey (#7) and junior safety Brandon Joseph (#16), a transfer from Northwestern. Foskey led the Irish with 11 sacks last season and had 6 forced fumbles, tied for most in the nation. He’s at it again this season, leading the team by far with 7 sacks, but has yet to force a fumble. Joseph has just one interception this season, but it was a 29-yard pick-six. He also has a forced fumble. Also, watch out for junior LB Marist Liufau (#8). He is a long, fast and athletic linebacker with half a sack and an interception this season. Their backers have combined for 6.5 sacks this season. The defense has 24 sacks, which is tied for 20th nationally.

 

Notre Dame’s kicker, Blake Grupe, is 10-13 on field goals this season with a long of 47. He has not attempted one from 50 yards.

 

Notre Dame is ranked No.69 in scoring offense (28.4 points per game), No.39 in rush offense (186.63 yards/game), No.106 in passing offense (196.4 yards/game) and No.79 in total offense (383 yards/game). The Irish are ranked No.40 in scoring defense (22.1 points/game), No.49 in rush defense (129.63 yards/game), No.36 in pass defense (204.9 yards/game) and No.28 in total defense (334.5 yards/game). They have the No.48 third-down offense (41.96%) and No.28 third-down defense (33.3%). They have the No.68 red zone offense, scoring 84.38% of the time and scoring touchdowns 65.63% of the time. They are No.112 in turnover margin (-0.75 per game) but do a good job avoiding penalties with just 4.6 for 40.9 yards per game, ranked No.18 nationally. Notre Dame’s defense has created just 5 turnovers, tied for dead last nationally with VA Tech and New Mexico State. Their offense has turned the ball over 11 times.

 

CLEMSON STATUS

Obviously, the big story line for the Tigers all week has been the quarterback situation. Fortunately, Dabo wisely nipped the whole controversy in the bud immediately after the Syracuse game by saying that DJ was still unequivocally the Tigers’ starting QB and leader. Can you imagine 2 weeks of talk and speculation if he hadn’t done that? Talk about a distraction. Instead, there is no doubt or dissension in the locker room. Everyone knows this is DJ’s team and is behind him. And let’s be realistic. Cade did a good job managing the game and not turning the ball over, but it’s not like he exactly lit up the stat sheet. He was 2-4 passing, and his two touchdown drives were the result of bail-out penalties by Cuse on 3rd and long. He made a couple nice throws, including the 2-point conversion to Ngata, and made a couple nice runs, but he also looked like a freshman at times. He almost threw an interception and was indecisive in the pocket on a couple plays. Having said that, it’s good to know that Cade has that experience under his belt in a big game, under pressure and playing from behind, but I expect DJ to bounce back and play well like he did in the first 7 games of the season.

 

The bye came at a great time for the Tigers. Other than backup RB Kobe Pace, who is almost ready to come back from injury, the Tigers are fully loaded and healthy. Starting LB Barrett Carter should be back after missing the Syracuse game with a concussion, and he’s a critical piece for this defense. Frankly, it’s amazing that they shut out Syracuse in the 2nd half without Carter. He may be the most important defensive player on the field for the Tigers because they will depend on Carter and Simpson to cover tight end Michael Mayer. In fact, both will probably bracket Mayer for much of the game. Not many college defenders, if any, can cover that guy one-on-one. Bryan Bresee is also starting to look like his old self after missing 3 games earlier in the season. He recorded his first solo sack of the season against Cuse.

 

Offensively, Antonio Williams continues to impress me more every week. What an addition he’s been as a true freshman! The crazy thing, though, is that Beaux Collins has zero catches in the last 2 games and has only been targeted a couple times! The good news is that the Tigers have still found other ways to score and win, and Collins has played well without the ball in his hands, but I sure would like to see them get Collins involved. At the very least, target him a couple times down field and let him make a play on the ball for either a catch or a pass interference call. He did draw a huge PI in the Syracuse game in the end zone on 3rd and long. That extended the drive and led to a huge touchdown.

 

The bottom line is that the Tigers are 8-0 but have yet to play a complete game for four quarters. I asked Dabo on Tuesday if it’s unusually late in the season for that to be the case compared to teams of the past, and he had a long, interesting response, comparing this team to the 2016 and 2018 championship teams. The 2018 team played complete games all season, blowing out just about everyone they played. But the 2016 team was the opposite. They had nail-biter after nail-biter, like FSU, Louisville, Pittsburgh, NC State and all the way through the last second of the national championship when they beat Alabama on the final play! The first complete game the Tigers played that season was in the CFP Semifinal when they blew out the Buckeyes 31-0 in the Fiesta Bowl. Dabo said that the 2016 team knew how good they were and that they were going back to the national championship, and they just wanted to hit the fast-forward button to go straight there without bringing their best for 4 consecutive quarters. This team has been similar. The offense has rolled at times but has had lulls for a quarter or more in every game, and the defense has also sleep-walked at times, like after they took a 20-point lead at FSU. Coming off the bye and fully healthy on the road in primetime, this would be the ideal time for the Tigers to finally put that complete game together! The one constant for the Tigers has been special teams. The Tigers’ unit is ranked in the top 10 and has been great all season. From BT Potter’s kickoffs and field goals to blocked kicks to Aidan Swanson’s first year as the starting punter to the punt returns of Antonio Williams of late. Let’s hope that remains a constant for the Tigers!

 

PREDICTION

Dabo has a tremendous record coming off a bye week, and the Tigers are fully loaded for the first time this season. I think DJ will bounce back from his horrendous half against Syracuse, but honestly, all he has to do is protect the football and not turn it over. If the Tigers are even or on the plus side of the turnover margin, they will win this game comfortably, even without a stellar game from DJ and the offense. The Tigers’ defense is that good! And I think we finally see them bring their A game for 4 full quarters. Notre Dame’s defense has only created 5 turnovers all season. The Tigers had that many, including the turnover on downs, against Syracuse! One of them, of course, was the pick-six, and even Shipley lost his first career fumble after a big first down run. It was just one of those bizarre, flukey games that they seem to get against Syracuse every couple of meetings. I’m sure Dabo is glad they will only be on the schedule every other year beginning next season! Thank goodness the Tigers got hit with the turnover bug at home against Syracuse and not on the road against Notre Dame! Knock on wood, but that sort of thing usually doesn’t happen two games in a row. I think Carter and Simpson will do the job keeping Mayer in check and Pyne will be running for his life from the Tigers’ defensive line the whole game. Look for Streeter to have DJ run on the first play and complete some short passes to get him settled into the game. I expect the Tigers’ tight ends to make several plays, and we should finally see Collins make an impact. Sorry to disappoint ESPN and all the Michigan fans out there, but the Tigers will not comply and give them the loss they are craving. The Tigers conclude their regular season road schedule perfect with 3 home games to finish the regular season! Make it 15 straight wins for the Tigers, extending the nation’s longest win streak.

 

The Prowl toward a 7th College Football Playoff and 4th National Title continues….

 

 

CLEMSON    31        Notre Dame    17