WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.9 CLEMSON vs. NO.23 UNC

Welcome to the ACC Championship edition of What We Are Hearing!

 

It’s been a weird season. That’s the best way I can characterize it. The Tigers have had all kinds of historic streaks snapped, including a 40-game home win streak by one point to the Gamecocks, who hadn’t beaten the Tigers in 9 years, and that has cost the Tigers a spot in the College Football Playoff. Oh, what might have been if Columbia native Antonio Williams hadn’t fumbled in the waning minutes of the game close to midfield. It seemed like a storybook ending to the game would have been Rock Hill native BT Potter kicking the game-winning field goal in his final game in Death Valley. However, fate was on the side of the Gamecocks last week, and a return to the CFP was not in the cards for the Tigers. However, they can still win an all-time best 21st ACC Championship on Saturday and accomplish 4 out of their 5 annual team goals with a win over UNC, which ironically also backed its way into the Championship after stunning back-to-back upsets at home. I’m not sure there’s ever been a Power Five championship game in which Make no mistake, neither team will be focused on last week or what might have been. The Tigers want to reclaim their crown as kings of the ACC, and the Heels are seeking their first-ever ACC Championship Game win, first conference title since 1980 and second 10-win season in 25 years. Two legendary head coaches will meet for the second time, and the first meeting was an instant classic in Chapel Hill. It’s all on the line in Charlotte on Saturday night!

 

On to the matchup…

 

MISCELLANEOUS

Clemson leads the all-time series with fellow ACC charter member UNC 38-19-1. The Tigers have won the last 4 meetings…This is the 9th ACC Championship Game appearance for the Tigers. They are 7-1 in their previous 8 appearances…Clemson has won 26 conference titles all-time, two behind Utah, which has won back-to-back Pac 12 titles and several mid-major conference titles, for the 10th most all-time…A win Saturday would give Dabo an 8th ACC title, tying Frank Howard for the most conference titles in Clemson history. It would also give Clemson 7 outright conference titles in 8 years, the first time that has been done by a Power Five program since Bear Bryant and Alabama won 8 in 9 years from 1971-79…Clemson has won a postseason game for 11 straight years. That is the longest streak since FSU won 11 straight from 1985-95…Clemson is seeking its 11th 11-win season in program history and 8th under Dabo…Clemson has won its last 15 games following a loss in the same season. The Tigers have not lost back-to-back games in the same season since 2011 (152 games), the longest streak in the nation…Will Shipley and Trenton Simpson are both natives of the Charlotte area…Clemson is the first team that is ranked when playing UNC this season…Dabo is 34-3 against teams from North Carolina and 17-4 in games played in the state of North Carolina…Clemson has won 15 straight games in the month of December dating back to 2011. Alabama (13-0) and Penn State (7-0) are the only other teams undefeated in December since 2011…Clemson has won 11 straight games against ACC opponents, tied for the 4th longest streak in program history…Clemson is 36-9 against Coastal opponents since the conference went to divisions. The Tigers have won 21 of their last 23 games against Coastal opponents…Clemson (3-0) is looking to win at least 4 games against ranked teams for a 6th time in program history…Clemson is 99-12 since 2015 and attempting to join Alabama as the only programs to win 100 games over that span…This will be the Tigers’ 7th night game of the season, the 4th-most in program history. They are 45-8 in night games since 2015…Clemson is 47-10 in games away from home since 2015…Dabo is 32-16 in top-25 matchups. The Tigers are 26-6 in such meetings since 2015…The Tigers are 4-0 in top-25 matchups with UNC all-time…Clemson seniors are 43-7 over the last 4 years, winning the third-most games over that span behind Alabama (45) and Georgia (44)…The seniors will have an opportunity to be the 11th Clemson senior class to win at least 3 ACC Championships…The Tigers completed their 9th perfect regular season record against ACC competition. It is just the 5th time the Tigers have won 8 ACC games in a season…Clemson has 484 sacks since 2012, most in the nation. The next-closest is Alabama at 439...Clemson is the only program in the nation to post at least 40 sacks every year of the CFP era. It needs 4 more sacks this season to keep that streak going…Clemson has the most tackles-for-loss since 2012 (1,259). Alabama is 2nd with 1,047… Dabo has won 160 games as a head coach. He took the sixth-fewest games (186) to reach 150 wins. Urban Meyer holds the record at 176 games, followed by Barry Switzer, Gil Dobie, Fielding Yost and Joe Paterno. Switzer and Paterno are the only ones who, like Dabo, won all 150 games at one school….Clemson has the second-most wins and second-best win percentage since 2015 behind Alabama. The Tigers are 99-12 over that period while Alabama is 102-10. Ohio State is 3rd with a record of 90-11 since 2015. Clemson is also 2nd in wins since 2011 with a record of 141-23. Alabama is 150-16 and Ohio State is 134-21….Clemson has the most Power Five wins (101) since 2013. Alabama is 2nd with 98 and Ohio State is 3rd with 94….Clemson holds the all-time record for most wins over a 5-year span with 69 from 2015-2019….Dabo Swinney has the best active win percentage in the nation (minimum 10 years) at .808. Nick Saban is second at .801, Kansas Head Coach Lance Leipold is 3rd (.737). Jimbo Fisher and Brian Kelly round out the top 5 on the active list….Dabo is currently 12th on the all-time win percentage list but climbing quickly. He’s just two spots below legendary Oklahoma Head Coach Bud Wilkinson, who Dabo could pass for 10th next season….A win Saturday would be Dabo’s 161st, passing Bob Stoops for second-most of any coach in his first 15 seasons, but Dabo is only in his 14^th full season. Next season, Dabo should topple Urban Meyer’s record of 165 wins in his first 15 seasons….Dabo has the most active wins (160) with one school. Mike Gundy is 2nd with 156 at Oklahoma State. Dabo is 9th on the active head coach career win list, 2 more than Mike Leach and 4 more than Mike Gundy….With a win in the Cheez-It Bowl over Iowa State last season, Dabo tied Bobby Bowden for most bowl wins (11) by any ACC coach in history….Clemson has scored at least one rushing touchdown in 66 of 67 games since 2018, the best streak in the nation…Clemson is the only Power Five team with two tight ends that have 4 touchdowns each this season…LB Barrett Carter has 8 TFL’s, 4 sacks, 2 INT’s and 2 forced fumbles. The last two Power Five players to reach those numbers won the Butkus Award (Isaiah Simmons and Georgia’s Nakobe Dean)…BT Potter needs 2 field goals to break Nelson Welch’s Clemson career record of 72. Potter needs just 2 points to become the first ACC player to score at least 100 points in 4 different seasons. Potter is on pace to at least tie James Skalski, Will Spiers and Will Swinney for the most games played in Clemson history. He will make his 53rd start on Saturday, passing Chandler Catanzaro for the most starts by a place kicker in Clemson history…RB Will Shipley became the 23rd 1,000-yard rusher in Clemson history last week…DJ Uiagalelei is one of just 8 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 20 pass TD’s and 5 rush TD’s this season…WR Antonio Williams has the most catches (49) by a Clemson freshman since Artavis Scott (76) in 2014…

 

NORTH CAROLINA SYNOPSIS

No one expected UNC to win the Coastal division this season, and the surprise season has been entirely because of redshirt freshman QB Drake Maye, who was recruited by the Tigers. He visited Clemson a few times but was always going to UNC, where his dad played and his brother, Luke, won a national championship in basketball. Maye has had an unbelievable season and was my front-runner for the Heisman just a few weeks ago before the Heels lost at home to Georgia Tech. Maye looked human for the first time in that game, as the Heels blew a 17-0 lead and were shut out in the second half. He should have had a game-winning touchdown pass, but it was ironically dropped by Downs, one of the best receivers in the nation. Maye and the Heels’ offense continued to struggle in the first half last week against NC State. He came on late and tied the game to send it to overtime, but the Heels lost to their rivals in double-overtime for a second straight home loss. The Heels would have won in regulation if not for a missed easy field goal by their kicker.

 

Maye has completed 68% of his passes this season for 3,847 yards, 35 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions, earning him both ACC Rookie of the Year and Player of the Year honors. He’s also the Heels’ leading rusher with 629 yards and 6 scores. The last 3 college quarterbacks to lead their team in rushing and pass for over 300 yards per game are Maye, Mahomes and Manziel! Maye has led 6 come-from-behind wins in the second half this season, the most in the nation, and he should have had two more. He has uncanny poise and football IQ, seeming even more comfortable when under pressure and coming from behind. We saw it in the first week of the season in that epic game against Chase Brice and App State. It seems like Tech and State may have found the only chink in Maye’s armor, and that’s to bring constant pressure. He was sacked 6 times by the Jackets, and the Pack’s front seven was able to get pressure on him as well.

 

As mentioned, the most dangerous weapon Maye has at his disposal is WR Josh Downs (#11). The 5’10, 175-pound junior from Suwanee, GA has just 9 catches for 82 yards and no scores in the last 2 games, which is a big reason the Heels lost both. Despite those two games and missing a couple games early in the season, Downs still leads the ACC with 83 catches this season and 11 touchdowns. He’s not the only weapon in the passing game, though. 6’2, 200-pound senior Antoine Green (#3). He had 8 catches and a TD last week. JJ Jones (#5) is a native of Myrtle Beach. The 6’2, 210-pound sophomore only has 22 catches and one TD this season but averages 18.3 yards per catch. That’s good enough for 18th nationally. The Heels also have a pair of dangerous tight ends, much like the Tigers, in Kamari Morales (#88) and Bryson Nesbit (#18), who have combined for 56 catches and 7 touchdowns. If Nesbit scores on Saturday, they will join Clemson as the only teams that have a pair of tight ends with 4 TD catches each. Morales is 6’2, 245 pounds and Nesbit, a Charlotte native, is 6’5 and 230.

 

The Heels’ second-leading rusher behind Maye is RB Elijah Greene (#21). The 6’0, 205-pound sophomore from Roswell, GA has really come on in the second half of the season and asserted himself as the alpha in the backfield. He’s scored 8 touchdowns in the last 6 games, scoring at least once in each of those, after going scoreless in the first half of the season. He averages 4.8 yards per carry for the season but averaged 9.2 yards per carry with two scores in their loss to Tech a couple weeks ago. He also has 14 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. Freshman Omarion Hampton (#28) is their second-leading back at 6’0, 200 pounds. He averages 4.7 yards per carry with 6 TD’s this season but only had 2 carries for 3 yards last week. He has 6 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown. Neither back has lost a fumble this season.

 

The Heels are vastly improved defensively compared to early in the season when they were one of the worst units in the nation. They are led by LB Cedric Gray (#33), a Charlotte native who has a whopping 129 tackles this season. He also has a sack, 2 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles and 2 recoveries. DE Kaimon Rucker (#25) from Harwell, GA has 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. No one else on the unit has more than 2 sacks. The Heels have their own Myles Murphy (#8), a junior DT who has one sack this season. The Heels are banged up in the secondary, but they have a steady veteran in junior DB Storm Duck (#3). The Boiling Springs, SC native has 3 interceptions this season to lead the team. Ironically, he slipped and fell on an early big pass play by State last week that led to a touchdown. The Heels will be missing Tony Grimes and Cam’Ron Kelly in the secondary, and that will press freshmen Marcus Allen and Will Hardy into service, along with sophomore Lejond Cavazos. Allen has played well recently and had a TFL last week. They lost LB Noah Taylor and DE Desmond Evans earlier in the season.

 

Sophomore kicker Noah Burnette is just 12-16 with a long of 47 yards. However, the Heels have the nation’s No.7 punter in Ben Kiernan, who averages 47 yards per punt with a long of 70 and just 2 touchbacks this season. The Tigers face the No.2 punter in the nation last week against the Gamecocks, and it was a huge reason for the loss, as he pinned the Tigers inside their 5 yard line 3 times and gave them terrible field position all day. Downs is a dangerous punt returner, averaging 14 yards per return. TE Bryson Nesbit ironically has their only kick return for a touchdown.

 

UNC is ranked No.15 in scoring offense (37.1 points per game), No.8 in passing offense (320.9 yards/game), No.61 in rushing offense (160 yards/game) and No.12 in total offense (480.9 yards/game). The Heels are No.102 in scoring defense (30.3 points per game), No.92 in rush defense (169.67 yards/game), No.118 in pass defense (273 yards/game) and No.117 in total defense (442.7 yards/game). Their offense is No.21 on 3rd down, converting 46.47% of the time. Their defense is No.88 on 3rd down, allowing conversions 40.72% of the time. Surprisingly, their red zone offense is ranked 82nd, scoring on 82% of their trips. Their red zone defense is ranked 83rd, allowing scores on 85.71% of trips. The Heels are 123rd nationally with just 16 sacks, and they have allowed 2.83 sacks per game, which is the 99th fewest. UNC also has just 3.75 tackles-for-loss per game, which is third-fewest in the nation behind Army and Minnesota. The Heels are 86th in interceptions with 8 and 98th in fumble recoveries with 5. However, the Heels have the 12th fewest turnovers lost, just 11 on the season, and that gives them a positive turnover margin per game. The Tigers, by comparison, have lost 15 turnovers in the last 5 games!

 

CLEMSON STATUS

Turnovers is a good segue to the Tigers because it has been their Achilles Heel this season. If not for turnovers, the Tigers would be 11-1 or 12-0 and in control of their playoff destiny. After turning the ball over just 5 times in the first 7 games, they have 15 in their last 5 and are 3-2 in those games. I don’t know how you fix it at this point in the season because it seems to be psychological more than anything else, and no player on offense seems to be immune to it. Last week, it was Mafah and Williams.

 

On the injury front, a bunch of players are banged up and playing through pain, but the Tigers will be without Beaux Collins, whose shoulder popped back out of place after a big catch last week. He had surgery this week and will miss the bowl game as well. That means someone needs to step up at receiver between Spector, Randall, EJ Williams or freshman Cole Turner. The Tigers will also likely be without Tyler Venables again this week, and starting OG Marcus Tate’s season ended with an injury a couple weeks ago, making Mitchell Mayes the new starter. Safety RJ Mickens will have to sit the first half because of his targeting ejection in the 2nd half last week. Freshman Sherrod Covil has emerged as a solid backup, however.

 

PREDICTION

It’s supposed to rain early in the day but should be nice, clear conditions by game time with temperatures in the 50’s. Offensively, the Tigers need to get the ball to Shipley early and often any which way they can. Dabo said after the game last week that he regretted not giving Shipley, who averaged 8.8 yards per carry for 132 yards, more touches. I would also like to see the tight ends have a more prominent role in the passing game than they have in the last couple games. The biggest question, of course, is how DJ will play after a poor showing last week, going 8-29 for 99 yards and an interception. He had a touchdown pass and his 7th rush TD of the season but missed on several throws. The loss was far from his fault, as there were several drops by the receivers, and the offensive line did a poor job protecting him, but he needs to find in on Saturday against a poor pass defense with a terrible pass rush. If he does struggle early, Dabo will be forced to decide whether to bring in Cade Klubnik.

 

On the defensive side, Goodwin needs to follow the blueprint of Georgia Tech and NC State. Bring constant pressure and blitzes to force Maye out of his game. You cannot let him sit in the pocket and pick you apart. A big part of the Maye’s struggles in their last two games was not taking the underneath passes when the defense dropped 8 into coverage, and I expect to see more patience out of him on Saturday and take what the defense gives him with the underneath routes. The Tigers’ secondary must limit the big plays in the passing game. Mukuba had a miserable day last week, and hopefully he will bounce back against the Heels.

 

The Tigers always seem to get off to a great start offensively, often scoring touchdowns on the opening possession, but for whatever reason, they go through a lull after that. They need to find a way to build a two-score lead late in the game, like they did at FSU, because Maye is in his comfort zone in one-score games in the 4th quarter. When they are down a score and going fast on offense, he is almost impossible to stop, especially if they are in 4-down territory.

 

On paper, the Tigers should win this game by at least 10-14 points, but I have given up expecting them to play a clean turnover-free game after averaging 3 per game over the last 5. This will probably come down to the final possession, and the Tigers’ defense will have to get a stop. But defense wins championships, and the Tigers have by far the better defense of the two teams.

 

Make it a 7th ACC Championship in 8 years for the Tigers, as they reclaim their conference crown! Orange Bowl, here we come…

 

 

CLEMSON    34        North Carolina    28