WHAT WE ARE HEARING: ORANGE BOWL PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.7 CLEMSON vs. NO.6 TENNESSEE
- 2022-12-30 14:15:17
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Welcome to the Orange Bowl edition of What We Are Hearing!
It all comes down to this. Clemson fans are probably still
thinking about what might have been if the Tigers hadn’t turned the ball over
against the Gamecocks and lost by one point, keeping the Tigers out of the
College Football Playoff, but if you had told me last summer that they would
win the ACC and have a chance to finish 12-2 with an Orange Bowl win over a
top-10 Tennessee team, I would take that in a heartbeat! That’s a fantastic season
by anyone’s measure. The last time these two teams met, of course, was in the
2003 Peach Bowl, and I was in the stands on that New Year’s Eve as a young
Clemson graduate. It was Dabo’s first year on the Clemson staff, and the Tigers
won 27-14 over the Vols, which were coincidentally ranked No.6, just like they
are now. However, the Tigers are the favorite this time around, and true
freshman quarterback Cade Klubnik is poised to make his first career start
after an MVP performance in the ACC Championship against UNC. The Orange Bowl
appearance for Tennessee Head Coach Josh Heupel was when he was the Oklahoma QB
and led the Sooners to a BCS National Championship win over FSU in 2000. The
Orange Bowl is going to be filled with orange of different shades in primetime
on Friday night, and Hard Rock Stadium is going to be rocking! On to the matchup…
MISCELLANEOUS
Tennessee leads the all-time series with Clemson 11-6-2 but
the Tigers won the last meeting and only neutral site game in the 2003 Peach
Bowl…Clemson is 4-2 all-time in the Orange Bowl, beating Oklahoma in its last
appearance in the 2015 CFP Semifinal. The Tigers also beat Ohio State in the
Orange Bowl to finish the 2013 season. With another win, Clemson would join Oklahoma,
Nebraska, Miami, Alabama and FSU as the only schools to win 5 Orange Bowls…Clemson
is seeking a 12th win for the 7th time in program history. The Tigers would tie
Alabama as the only programs to post six 12-win seasons since 2015…This will be
Dabo’s 200th game as a head coach. He is seeking his 162nd win, which would tie
him with Joe Paterno and Tom Osborne for third-most wins by a head coach in his
first 200 games, trailing only Urban Meyer (170) and Gil Dobie (163). Dabo’s
161 wins are second-most by any coach in his first 15 seasons, and he will pass
Urban Meyer for the record next season…Cade Klubnik will be the first Clemson
QB to make his first start in a postseason game since Clemson abandoned the
single-wing offense in 1953. Since 2002, Clemson quarterbacks are 9-2 in their
first start, with wins by Whitehurst, Since 2022, Clemson quarterbacks are 9-2
in the first career starts with wins by Whitehurst, Proctor, Harper, Parker, Boyd,
Watson, Bryant, Lawrence and Uiagalelei…Clemson is 26-22 in bowl games. A win
would move Clemson into 9th on the all-time bowl win list. Ohio State can also
win a 27th bowl game with a win over Georgia in the CFP Semifinal...Clemson is
10-4 in bowl games since 2012, including CFP games…Clemson has won at least one
postseason game for 12 straight years, the longest streak since at least 1980.
FSU did so for 11 straight years from 1985-95… Clemson has won 16 straight
games in the month of December dating back to 2011. Alabama (13-0) and Penn
State (7-0) are the only other teams undefeated in December since 2011…Clemson
(4-0) has won at least 4 games against ranked teams for a 6th time in program
history…Clemson is 100-12 since 2015. Alabama is the only other program to win
100 games over that span…This will be the Tigers’ 8th night game of the season,
the 4th-most in program history. They are 46-8 in night games since 2015…Clemson
is 48-10 in games away from home since 2015…Dabo is 33-16 in top-25 matchups.
The Tigers are 27-6 in such meetings since 2015…Clemson seniors are 44-7 over
the last 4 years, winning the third-most games over that span behind Alabama
(45) and Georgia (45)…The seniors are the 11th Clemson senior class to win at
least 3 ACC Championships…The Tigers completed their 9th perfect regular season
record against ACC competition. It is just the 5th time the Tigers have won 8
ACC games in a season…Clemson has 488 sacks since 2012, most in the nation. The
next-closest is Alabama at 439...Clemson is the only program in the nation to
post at least 40 sacks every year of the CFP era…Clemson has the most
tackles-for-loss since 2012 (1,266). Alabama is 2nd with 1,047… Dabo has won 161
games as a head coach. He took the sixth-fewest games (186) to reach 150 wins.
Urban Meyer holds the record at 176 games, followed by Barry Switzer, Gil
Dobie, Fielding Yost and Joe Paterno. Switzer and Paterno are the only ones
who, like Dabo, won all 150 games at one school….Clemson has the second-most
wins and second-best win percentage since 2015 behind Alabama. The Tigers are 100-12
over that period while Alabama is 102-10. Ohio State is 3rd with a record of 91-11
since 2015. Clemson is also 2nd in wins since 2011 with a record of 142-23.
Alabama is 150-16 and Ohio State is 135-21….Clemson has the most Power Five
wins (102) since 2013. Alabama is 2nd with 98 and Ohio State is 3rd with 95….Clemson
holds the all-time record for most wins over a 5-year span with 69 from
2015-2019….Dabo Swinney has the best active win percentage in the nation
(minimum 10 years) at .809. Nick Saban is second at .801, Kansas Head Coach
Lance Leipold is 3rd (.737). Jimbo Fisher and Brian Kelly round out the top 5
on the active list….Dabo is currently 12th on the all-time win percentage list
but climbing quickly. He’s just two spots below legendary Oklahoma Head Coach
Bud Wilkinson, who Dabo could pass for 10th next season….Dabo’s 161st win
passed Bob Stoops for second-most of any coach in his first 15 seasons, but
Dabo is only in his 14th full season. Next season, Dabo should
topple Urban Meyer’s record of 165 wins in his first 15 seasons….Dabo has the
most active wins (161) with one school. Mike Gundy is 2nd with 156 at Oklahoma
State. Dabo is 9th on the active head coach career win list, 5 more than Mike
Gundy….With a win in the Cheez-It Bowl over Iowa State last season, Dabo tied
Bobby Bowden for most bowl wins (11) by any ACC coach in history….Clemson has
scored at least one rushing touchdown in 67 of 68 games since 2018, the best
streak in the nation…Clemson is the only Power Five team with two tight ends
that have 4 touchdowns each this season…BT Potter is tied with Nelson Welch for
the Clemson career record of 72 field goals. In the ACC Championship, Potter became
the first ACC player to score at least 100 points in 4 different seasons.
Potter is tied with James Skalski, Will Spiers and Will Swinney for the most
games played in Clemson history. He will make his 54th start on Friday, passing
Chandler Catanzaro for the most starts by a place kicker in Clemson history…RB
Will Shipley became the 23rd 1,000-yard rusher in Clemson history this season…WR
Antonio Williams has the most catches (52) by a Clemson freshman since Artavis
Scott (76) in 2014…
TENNESSEE SYNOPSIS
Like Clemson, the Vols fans are probably thinking about what
could have been if they beat the Gamecocks, who cost them a spot in the playoff
as well. They tragically lost their star quarterback and Heisman candidate Hendon
Hooker with a torn ACL late in the game, but they rebounded with a 56-0 win at
Vandy with senior backup QB Joe Milton, a Michigan transfer who grew up in the
Miami area and will be making a homecoming start in the Orange Bowl with lots
of family and friends in attendance. Milton played sparingly this season before
the Hooker injury, and he was 11-21 for 147 yards with one touchdown pass and
no interceptions. The Vols demonstrated that they don’t have to rely on the
passing game to score lots of points, racking up 362 rushing yards in the Vandy
game. The book on Milton is that he has a cannon for an arm but is not very
accurate. At 6’5 and 245 pounds, he’s not a dynamic runner but is tough to
bring down and can be effective on quarterback power runs. He has only run 7
times this season but averages 10.3 yards per attempt. He has 7 TD passes this
season with no interceptions.
Milton will be without 2 of his most dangerous weapons at
the receiver position, including Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt, who is an
Irmo, SC native and played high school ball with Clemson freshman WR Antonio
Williams. He has opted out for the NFL Draft, as has WR Cedric Tillman. The two
receivers combined for 104 catches for 1,684 yards and 18 touchdowns, which is
a huge percentage of their production in the passing game this season. The Vols
will have to rely on Bru McCoy (#15), a 6’3, 220-pound junior, who has 48
catches for 619 yards and 3 TD’s this season. They have another big WR in 6’3,
195-pound senior Ramel Keyton (#80), a Marietta, GA native who has 27 catches
and 4 TD’s, averaging an impressive 18 yards per catch. 6’1, 195-pound
sophomore Walker Merrill (#19) has just 8 catches this season, but 3 of them
have gone for scores. Senior Princeton Fant (#88) is a 6’2, 235-pound tight end
with 20 catches and 3 TD’s this season.
The Vols have a dual running back combo in Jaylen Wright
(#20) and Jabari Small (#2). Wright is 5’11, 200-pounder who averages 5.8 yards
per rush with 10 TD’s this season. He had a monster game in his last outing at
Vandy, rushing for 160 yards and 2 TD’s on just 5 carries. He had just 28 yards
on 6 carries in the previous game at South Carolina. Small is a 5’11, 213-pound
junior who averages 4.8 yards per carry with 12 TD’s this season. He also
scored 2 TD’s at Vandy and averaged 7.2 yards per rush. He has scored 4 TD’s in
their last 3 games and has 12 catches and 2 TD’s in the passing game. Freshman
Dylan Sampson (#24) is 5’11 and 190 pounds. He only has 58 carries this season
but averages 6.8 yards per rush with 6 TD’s.
Defensively, the Vols have DE Byron Young (#6), a 6’3,
245-pound senior from Georgetown, SC. He leads the team with 5 sacks. Senior DE
Roman Harrison (#30) is second on the team with 3 sacks. Senior Atlanta native DB
Trevon Flowers (#1) and junior DB Kamal Hadden (#5) have 2 interceptions apiece
and have combined for 3 forced fumbles. Senior LB Aaron Beasley (#24) leads the
team in tackles with 64, along with a sack and a fumble recovery.
Senior kicker Chase McGrath is 15-19 on field goals this
season. He has only attempted 2 kicks over 50 yards this season, making one
from 51.
Tennessee is ranked No.1 in scoring offense (47.3 points per
game), No.3 in passing offense (332.3 yards/game), No.19 in rushing offense
(205.75 yards/game) and No.1 in total offense (538.1 yards/game). The Vols are
No.43 in scoring defense (23.5 points per game), No.19 in rush defense (111.75
yard/game), No.126 in pass defense (287 yards/game) and No.84 in total defense
(398.8 yards/game). They are tied for No.64 in sacks (27) but they are tied for
No.24 in tackles-for-loss (86). They have gained 20 turnovers, which is ranked
38th, and have lost just 11 turnovers, which ranks them 14th in turnover margin
per game at +0.75. They have just 9 interceptions this season, which is tied
for 77th. Surprisingly, the Vols’ 3rd down offense is ranked just 34th,
converting 43.14 percent of the time. Clemson has the advantage in that offensive
category at 48.70 percent, which is 9th nationally. The Vols’ 3rd down defense
is ranked No.29, allowing conversions 34.12 percent of the time. Their red zone
offense is ranked No.6, scoring on 93.65% of their trips with a 79.37 TD rate,
which leads the nation. The Tigers’ defense has not been as stout in the red
zone as they have been in the past, allowing TD’s 54.76 percent of the time,
which ranks 37th. The Vols’ red zone defense is ranked No.22, allowing scores
on 77.08% of trips.
CLEMSON STATUS
Up until now, Clemson might have been the only program
without a single opt out in a bowl game, but it has finally happened. DE Myles
Murphy, a top-10 overall prospect in the NFL Draft, announced that he will not
play in the Orange Bowl. LB Trenton Simpson would not have played due to
injury, but he also announced that he will enter the draft. Remarkably, the
Tigers didn’t have a single player opt out of the mediocre Cheez-It Bowl last
season. DT Bryan Bresee is a top-10 NFL prospect, but he will play in the
Orange Bowl along with NFL prospects KJ Henry, Tyler Davis, Davis Allen and Joseph
Ngata. TE Davis Allen announced that he will not return to Clemson next season,
but we will have to wait and see over the next couple of weeks to find out what
the others decide to do. KJ Henry has hinted that he is seriously considering
returning to Clemson and is trying to persuade his teammates on the defensive
line to join him. I reported a couple weeks ago, that Henry, Davis and Bresee
might make a pact similar to what we saw from Wilkins, Ferrell and Bryant when
they all decided to return to Clemson in 2018 for a national championship. As
for the Orange Bowl, they will all be suiting up, and the Tigers are in great
shape from an injury standpoint. CB Sheridan Jones has been dealing with a hip
flexor, however, and Dabo said that he will be a game time decision.
Obviously, all eyes will be on true freshman Cade Klubnik making
his first career start in the hopes he will replicate his performance from the
ACC Championship. He is a poised, confident competitor who is used to the
spotlight from playing championship high school football in the state of Texas,
and I don’t expect the stage to be too big for him. Brandon Streeter did an excellent
job of adapting the play calling to Cade’s skill set in the ACC Championship,
and he got a lot of help from fellow true freshman WR Cole Turner. The Tigers
had been saving Turner all season in order to keep his red shirt, but he had a
coming out party in Charlotte and figures to play a prominent role in the
passing game on Friday night. The Tigers are in good shape at the receiver
position with the emergence of Turner on top of fellow freshman Antonio
Williams, Ngata and Brannon Spector, who has come on at the end of the season.
Of course, it would be nice to have Beaux Collins, but his season ended with a
dislocated shoulder. Perhaps this will be a breakout game for freshman Adam
Randall! Of course, Cade also has the reliable hands of tight ends Davis Allen
and Jake Briningstool in the passing game. On the defensive side, with LB
Trenton Simpson out, freshman Wade Woodaz will make his first career start at
the SAM/Nickel spot. He has been solid all season.
Interestingly, the Tigers have their option of uniforms, and
Dabo said a couple weeks ago that they will wear the white jerseys with the
orange britches. The latter is no surprise, but in the past, they have always
gone all orange when given the option. After the ACC Championship, I texted
Dabo and told him that they had not lost in the white/orange combo since their
overtime loss at FSU in 2014, so maybe that influenced his decision. The Tigers
have won several huge games in the white/orange combo over the years, including
both national championship wins over Alabama (they wore all orange in the two
losses to Bama), the CFP Semifinal win over Ohio State in 2019, the 2013 Orange
Bowl win over Ohio State and several ACC Championship wins, including the last
one and the blowout over Notre Dame in 2020. Incidentally, they also wore the
combo when they upset No.6 Tennessee in the 2003 Peach Bowl, their last meeting
with the Vols, and the 63-17 win at South Carolina in the game before that! We’ll
see if the Tigers continue their win streak in the white and orange.
PREDICTION
This would be a much more compelling game if Hendon Hooker
and Jalin Hyatt were playing for Tennessee. While they still have plenty of
offensive firepower, as evidenced by their last game at Vandy, they will be
more reliant on the running game, and that is right in the Tigers’ wheel house.
Josh Heupel and the Vols love to go fast tempo on offense, and I don’t expect
that to change, but the Tigers have one of the best run defenses in the nation,
notwithstanding the Notre Dame debacle. In addition, Nate Wiggins had been
improving ever since his miserable game at Wake, and he had a career night in
the ACC Championship with a record-setting pick-six, a blocked field goal and
two PBU’s in the end zone. His confidence is through the roof right now, and
confidence is paramount at the corner position. And, of course, he won’t have
to worry about covering Hyatt or Tillman.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee has one of the
worst pass defenses in the nation. There are only 5 teams in the FBS that are
worse, and that bodes well for Cade and the Tigers’ passing game. Brandon
Streeter should have the entire play book at his disposal and mix a good
balance of play action passing with heavy doses of Shipley and Mafah in the run
game. Look for a little trickery as well from both sides, like we saw on the
pass from Mafah to Klubnik in the ACC Championship.
The Tigers are favored by 4.5 points, but I don’t see how
the Vols will be able to rely on the run game like they did at Vandy. This will
be the best defense they will have faced other than Georgia, which shut down
the Vols even with Hooker and Hyatt. It should be an electric environment with
a sea of orange split 50/50, but those in the darker orange will be the last in
the stands for this one! Make it a 5th Orange Bowl win for the Tigers and a 3rd
for Dabo, as the Tigers finish 12-2 with a spring board into a 2023 national
title campaign….
CLEMSON 38 Tennessee 20
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