WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW AND PREDICTION FOR NO.23 CLEMSON vs. NO.3 FSU

Welcome to another edition of What We Are Hearing!

 

Well, this is the ACC showdown that everyone has had circled since the end of last season. Many feel that the Seminoles are finally back and ready to reclaim the ACC throne from Clemson, return to the College Football Playoff and contend for a national title. They were ranked in the preseason top 10 and made an emphatic statement with their blowout win over LSU in the opener, and now they have their sights set on the ACC Tigers, who haven’t lost to the Seminoles since 2014 and have ruled the ACC ever since. If you think the Tigers are just going to roll over and hand over the throne to FSU, though, you’ve got another thing coming! And with a conference loss on the record already, the Tigers can’t afford to lose this game if they are going to make it back to Charlotte to defend their ACC title. We’ll find out whether the Tigers are still the kings of the ACC at high noon in Death Valley!

 

MISCELLANEOUS

Clemson trails the all-time series with FSU 20-15, but the Tigers have won 7 straight (8 if you count the FSU forfeit in 2020). Clemson leads at home 9-8 and has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in Death Valley…Clemson and FSU have combined for 13 ACC Championship appearances in the last 14 years and 11 of the last 12 titles…Clemson is ranked No.23 in this week's Coaches' Poll but unranked (26th) in the AP Poll. This is the first time Clemson has been unranked in the AP Poll when playing FSU since 2010...Saturday will mark the 56th anniversary of the first time the Clemson players rubbed Howard's Rock before running down The Hill...Dabo is going for his 100th regular-season conference win, which would tie Frank Howard for the most in program history…Clemson has won 25 straight home conference games, the longest streak in the nation....Clemson is 61-2 at home in the CFP era, the best record in the nation…Dabo is 10-9 all-time versus AP top 5 teams. That is the second-most active wins behind Nick Saban...Dabo is 34-6 after dropping in the AP Poll from the previous week…Clemson needs 3 sacks to become the first program with 500 sacks since the 2012 season…Clemson has the most Power Five wins since 2013 with 3 more than Alabama and 7 more than Ohio State…Dabo is currently No.13 in the all-time win percentage ranks at .802, just ahead of Nick Saban (.800)….

 

FSU SYNOPSIS

The Noles are coming off a close call at Boston College, winning 31-29, and a missed PAT by the Eagles was the difference. After BC took an early 10-3 lead, the Noles rattled off 28 unanswered points to go up 31-10 and seemed like they had the game well in hand. However, the Eagles stepped up on both sides of the ball in the second half. After a BC touchdown and missed PAT, the score was 31-16, and the Eagles went with an early onside kick. They tipped their hand with the ball setup on the tee, and FSU called a timeout to get their hands team ready, but it didn’t matter. BC squibbed it, and RB Trey Benson muffed the kick, recovered by the Eagles deep in FSU territory. The Eagles paid it off with another touchdown, and opted to go for a 2-point conversion to make up for the missed PAT and cut the lead to 7, but the attempt failed, making the score 31-22. The Eagles forced a punt and scored another touchdown to make it 31-29. It would have been a tie game if they converted the 2-point conversion earlier or hadn’t missed the PAT. Still, the Eagles’ defense forced another punt and gave the offense a chance for a game-winning field goal. However, the Noles’ defense rose up when they needed it and sacked the quarterback on 3rd and 10 to force a punt on 4th and 24. The Noles picked up a first down, and that was all they needed to run out the clock.

 

The Noles have been a streaky team in two of their three games. They trailed 17-14 at halftime against LSU but scored 31 unanswered points in the second half, winning 45-24. They scored 28 unanswered points at Boston College but nearly lost the game, giving up 19 unanswered. The Tigers must be cognizant of that if they get a lead on Saturday because the Noles can score in bunches in a hurry. In fact, the Tigers nearly blew a big second-half lead in Tallahassee last season.

 

The biggest factor in the Noles’ turnaround from a dreadful 2021 season to their current No.3 ranking has been the transfer portal. They have exploited it better than any team in the nation, getting most of their best players from the portal, including Jordan Travis, Trey Benson, Johnny Wilson, Keon Coleman, Jared Verse and former Gamecock Jaheim Bell, who scored against the Tigers last season. If not for the advent of the portal, the Seminoles would likely still be a .500 team instead of a playoff contender, but that’s the new reality of college football free agency, and every other program has used it to their advantage except for Dabo and the Tigers, who still do it the old-fashioned way with recruiting and development. Dabo may not need the portal to win at a high level, but it’s an untapped resource that handicaps the Tigers when every other program, including Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia, are getting some of their best players from the portal. But that’s a debate for another day.

 

Aside from the portal, the biggest factor in the Noles’ resurgence has been quarterback Jordan Travis. I commented about how talented I thought he was back in 2021, when the Noles were playing musical quarterbacks. He had a great season last year and is now a Heisman contender. He began his career at Louisville in 2018, transferred to FSU the next season and is now in his sixth year of college football, so he’s seen it all. His completion percentage and productivity has steadily increased each year, and he completed 64 percent of his passes last season for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. He’s as dangerous as a runner as he is a passer, rushing for 417 yards and 7 TD’s last season on 5.1 yards per carry. That was on full display against the Tigers in Tallahassee last season. Through 3 games this season, he has completed 63 percent of his passes for 729 yards, 8 TD’s and just one INT. He’s rushed for 96 yards and another score on 5.6 yards per carry. He’s a smart, experienced quarterback with a ton of moxie, and the Tigers will need to have a spy on him at all times because he has the speed to run for a touchdown on any given play, but he is also adept at scrambling, extending plays and finding receivers down field. So the Tigers’ secondary will have to be ready for the scramble drill. Travis hurt his non-throwing shoulder at Boston College last week, but it didn’t seem to impede him at all. In fact, he led two touchdown drives right after that.

 

Travis has an arsenal of weapons at his disposal in the passing game. We all remember Johnny Wilson (#14) from last season. At 6’7 and 237 pounds, the Arizona State transfer is like a tight end playing wide receiver and a matchup nightmare for any team. He has had issues with drops at times, but he is as dangerous as they get and has had some monster performances. Surprisingly, he only has 11 catches for 209 yards and has yet to score this season, but he usually shows up for big games and has the ability to take over a game with well over 100 yards and multiple scores. He had 6 catches for 75 yards against the Tigers last season. Travis also has a new weapon in WR Keon Coleman (#4), who was at Michigan State last season. He was one of the most sought-after players in the portal, and he showed why on the big stage against LSU. The Tigers had no answer for the 6’4, 215-pound junior, and he had 9 catches for 122 yards and 3 touchdowns. Surprisingly, he was only targeted 3 times last week and did not record a single catch at Boston College. He also had a fumble on the Eagles’ final punt but was fortunate to have it go out of bounds. That’s probably bad news for the Tigers because great players like him usually don’t have two bad games in a row. As if that’s not enough to worry about, the Noles swiped H-back Jaheim Bell (#6) from the portal as well. I’m sure you remember his touchdown run in Death Valley last season, helping the Gamecocks shock the Tigers with a 31-30 win to snap an 8-year losing streak, ending the nation’s longest home win streak and robbing the Tigers of a spot in the playoff. He also had a monster game in the stunning upset of Tennessee the week before, with 121 total yards rushing and receiving for 2 touchdowns. The 6’3, 239-pound junior is a weapon in both the run game and passing game, and he’s off to a fast start this season. He had 2 catches for 49 yards and a touchdown against LSU, and he rushed for another score. He had 5 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown last week at Boston College. His only carry this season was against LSU for the 4-yard score, but don’t be surprised if he’s used in short yardage or goal line situations on Saturday.

 

The Tigers’ secondary will have their hands full with Wilson, Coleman and Bell, but the first priority will be to stop the run. That’s easier said than done with the combination of Trey Benson (#3) and Lawrance Toafili (#9) in the backfield. Benson, a 6’1, 223-pound junior, averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season with 9 touchdowns. He’s averaging 5 yards per carry this season and already has 4 TD’s. Toafili, a 6’0, 188-pound junior, averaged 5 yards per carry with 5 TD’s last season. He also had 24 catches, including one for a score. He is averaging 5 yards per carry again this season but has yet to score. Benson and Toafili combined for 18 carries and 137 yards against the Tigers last season, an average of 7.6 yards per carry. Toafili also had 6 catches for 45 yards. Benson and Toafili both fumbled last week at Boston College.

 

In addition to the portal and Travis, the improvement of the Noles’ offensive line has been a big factor in their turnaround. It was the biggest weakness of the team for about four years, especially in pass protection, but it’s been a much better unit since last season. However, left tackle Robert Scott and center Maurice Smith have missed the last two games with injury and are questionable for Saturday. The Noles only averaged 3.8 yards per carry last week at Boston College, which had allowed 5 yards per carry before that game. We also saw the Noles struggle to run the ball against LSU, especially early. Travis averaged 5.4 yards per carry with a TD run, but Benson only averaged 3.9 yards and Toafili averaged 3.3 yards, neither scoring. So the Tigers must stop the run on Saturday and make the Noles one-dimensional. The Noles love to run the counter, and the Tigers also have to beware of the backs slipping out of the backfield for screen passes and wheel routes.

 

Defensively, the Noles are fast, physical and deep. 6’4, 260-pound junior DE Jared Verse (#5) has not recorded a sack yet this season, but he’s disruptive and can take over a game. He probably would have been a first-round draft pick but opted to return this season in the hopes of a national title. He had 9 sacks and a fumble recovery last season. Senior DT Dennis Briggs (#6) is a 6’4, 290-pound senior with 2 sacks already, and he’s not even a starter, so that gives you an idea of the Noles’ depth. The Noles have an outstanding trio of linebackers in DeLoach (#4), Lundy (#10) and Bethune (#15). DeLoach has a pair of sacks, and Lundy has 1.5 sacks with an interception. Surprisingly, the Noles have only created 4 turnovers in 3 games: 3 interceptions and one fumble. The Tigers, by comparison, created 4 turnovers last week alone.

 

Junior kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is off to a good start after a shaky season last year. He was just 12-20 last season but is 3-3 so far this season with a long of 35.

 

 

CLEMSON STATUS

The big story in Clemson this week, of course, was Dabo’s decision to bring in a ringer to spell struggling redshirt freshman place kicker Robert Gunn, who had two low field goals blocked at Duke and missed both a PAT and short field goal last week. Dabo discovered that Jonathan Weitz, a backup for BT Potter for the last couple seasons, was still enrolled as a full-time Clemson grad student online and living in Charleston. He had a year of eligibility left, so Dabo gave him a call on Sunday and asked if he wanted to lace up his cleats and kick for the Tigers in their biggest game of the season. Weitz is due to graduate in December and already had a job and apartment lined up in New York, but he jumped at the opportunity and will get his dream shot on Saturday. In his backup role behind Potter, Weitz only had a couple of kickoffs and PAT’s, so his first career field goal attempt could be on the biggest stage on national television. What a story it will be if his kick decides the game! Dabo said that Weitz was 7 our of 8 at practice on Monday, and he told me on Wednesday night that he was consistent with his kicks. It sounds like Dabo will use Weitz for any field goals inside 50 yards, but if they decide to try one from beyond 50, they will turn to Gunn, who has a big leg. Gunn will also be used on kickoffs.

 

The other big story this week was the loss of WR Cole Turner for the season. He missed the Charleston Southern Game, returned last week and was reinjured in the first half against FAU, tearing a muscle. That’s a big loss for the Tigers, as Turner was probably the fastest player on the team and a big down field threat. The good news is that they got Adam Randall going last week with a couple big catches, and he will need to continue to step up with Turner out. True Freshman Tyler Brown had a breakout game last week with 2 TD catches and a 44-yard punt return, and although he’s a slot receiver behind Antonio Williams, we could see Brown and Williams on the field at the same time.

 

Cade has done a good job spreading the ball around to all the receivers and tight end Jake Briningstool, so they should be able to fill the void of Turner, although he might have been their best weapon for the deep ball. Cade has only made 4 career starts now, but you can see his improvement week by week, and the game is slowing down for him with each start. He will need to make some big plays with his legs on Saturday in addition to the passing game. He made some enormous mistakes in each of his first 3 starts but played a clean game last week, and the Tigers must have another one on Saturday if they are going to beat the Noles.

 

Defensively, the Tigers just need to keep doing what they’ve been doing the last couple games. That’s easier said than done against an offense like Florida State’s, but I love what I’ve seen from the defense through 3 games, particularly the last couple. They have scored on pick-sixes in each of the last two games, and Woodaz almost had his second in a row last week. They allowed just 73 total yards and, really, 3 points against Charleston Southern, and the starters shut out FAU last week. True freshman Khalil Barnes had a monster game last week, stepping up at safety with Mukuba missing the last two games. Barnes was the hero of the spring game with the game-winning pick-six, and he had an interception and tackle-for-loss last week. Incidentally, Mukuba and OG Walker Parks will both be game day decisions. This will probably be the biggest challenge the defense will face this season, but they will have the Death Valley faithful providing extra juice! The biggest thing I want to see this week is a few sacks. They have started slow in that regard, with just 2 in each of the last 2 games and none at Duke. Riley Leonard is a tough quarterback to sack, and so is Travis, so that will be a challenge, but if they can get home a few times on Saturday, I like the Tigers’ chances. True freshman DE TJ Parker has been a bright spot this season and has proven to be a better pass rusher than senior starter Justin Mascoll, who has done a fine job for the most part. Xavier Thomas, Parker and Mascoll will need to wrap up Travis on Saturday! Like I mentioned before, though, they must set the tone first by stopping the run.

 

 

PREDICTION

I said after the Duke loss that I still thought the Tigers would beat the Seminoles, and I seemed to be the only one in the media to believe that. Many were saying it was going to be another blowout like the 2013 game against the eventual national champions, which is also the last time FSU won in Death Valley. ESPN didn’t do Clemson any favors with a noon kickoff to likely decide who will win the ACC, but I expect it to be a loud, electric atmosphere in Death Valley never the less. Interestingly enough, FSU announced that the band will not travel with the team because Clemson moved them to the upper deck, which is what most schools do to Clemson on the road. That may not seem like a big deal on paper, but if you’ve been to any FSU game in person, you know what a presence the Noles’ band brings to the game. Their travel band in Death Valley is usually twice the size of the Clemson band, and it often sounds like Tallahassee when they are constantly blasting that Tomahawk Chop. Kudos to Athletic Director Graham Neff for the brilliant move!

 

I expect this game to come down to turnovers and special teams. That’s the only reason the Tigers lost at Duke, and if they win or break even when it comes to turnovers and special teams, I love the Tigers’ chances. They finally won the turnover margin last week for the first time this season and just the second time in the last ten games. The Noles are favored by 2.5 points, making the Tigers the underdog at home for the first time in 46 games, which was the longest active streak in the nation. Of course, the Tigers had the longest active home win streak and one of the longest all-time until the 31-30 loss to the Gamecocks in their final home game last season. The Noles want to nip the current home win streak at 2, but it’s been 10 years since they’ve won in Death Valley and 9 years since they beat the Tigers. Make it 10! I stand by my prediction after the Duke loss. Just like 2003, Dabo’s first year at Clemson, the Tigers will knock off No.3 FSU in Death Valley and remind the nation that the dynasty ain’t done. By the way, I helped tear down the west goal post that night in 2003! We could see a rematch in Charlotte for the ACC Championship, as many including myself predicted preseason, but don’t be shocked if we see a Clemson/Duke rematch in Charlotte instead! Incidentally, Duke is the only team from the former Coastal Division that the Tigers have not played in the ACC Championship Game. At any rate, FSU may be back, but the Tigers aren’t ready to give up their throne just yet!

The Prowl toward another ACC Championship and return to the College Football Playoff continues....

 

CLEMSON    31        Florida State    27