WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.8 CLEMSON vs. LOUISVILLE

Welcome to another edition of What We Are Hearing!

The ACC race is as interesting as it's been in a long time this late in the season. Clemson, Miami, Pitt and SMU are all undefeated in league play, and since Clemson, Miami and SMU don't play each other, we could have a three-way tie at the end of the season. Pitt plays at SMU while the Tigers and Cards do battle on Saturday night, and the Tigers play at Pitt in a couple of weeks. We could also potentially have a three-way tie for second in the ACC standings at the end of the season, so we will remember November!

The Tigers are coming off a well-timed bye week, and, unlike the past few years, they have played lights out going into both byes this season. Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins, two of the key players that laid the foundation for Dabo’s dynasty, will go into the Clemson Hall of Fame on Saturday night when the Louisville Cardinals come calling. On to the matchup!

LOUISVILLE SYNOPSIS

The Cards have 3 losses this season, but they were all one-score games, and all of them were against top-20 teams; at Notre Dame and against SMU and Miami, which are both undefeated in ACC play. The Cards are coming off of an epic comeback win at Boston College last Thursday night after trailing 20-0 on the road. Head Coach Jeff Brohm, one of the best quarterbacks to play for Louisville, will be making his first appearance in Death Valley under the lights. He has done a great job with this program, leading the Cards to the ACC Championship Game last season.

The key to the Cards’ success this season has been the addition of quarterback Tyler Shough from the transfer portal. He is in his sixth year after two years at Oregon and three at Texas Tech, battling injuries along the way. Shough is having an outstanding season, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 2,348 yards and 20 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. At 6’5 and 225 pounds, he is not a dynamic runner by any means, with just 5 net rushing yards this season, but he is savvy in the pocket and good at extending plays for completions. He had 10 rushing touchdowns at Texas Tech and Oregon but none so far this season.

Shough has several weapons at his disposal, making the Cards one of the best offenses the Tigers will see this season. It starts with senior Alabama transfer Ja’Corey Brooks (#1). The 6’3, 195-pound IMG product leads the team with 44 catches for 799 yards and 8 TD’s, averaging a whopping 18.2 yards per catch. He had 8 catches for 120 yards at BC and scored twice against the Canes with 107 yards in that game. The Cards recently lost their second-biggest weapon, however. 5’10, 190-pound senior Caullin Lacy (#5), a Mobile native, played the last 3 seasons at South Alabama and led his conference in reception yards last season. He had just 15 catches this season, but 8 of them went for scores, and he had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Miami. After that game, he announced that he will opt out of the rest of the season in order to red shirt. He suffered a broken collarbone in August and has never fully healed from the injury. 6’2, 220-pound junior Chris Bell (#0) is also a dangerous receiver, averaging 17.3 yards per catch with a pair of touchdowns this season. 5’11, 180-pound Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (#24) has yet to score this season but had 4 TD catches for the Cards last year. He is a native of Dillon, SC (Derrick Hamilton’s hometown), so he will be amped up for this game against the Tigers. The Cards also have a solid tight end in 6’5, 225-pound senior Mark Redman, another transfer. The California native spent a year at Washington and the past two seasons at San Diego State. He has 15 catches and 3 TD’s this season, matching his total last year.

The Cards’ offense is built to pass to set up the run, but they are plenty talented in the backfield. 5’9, 190-pound freshman RB Isaac Brown (#25) is leading the team with 649 yards on 7.5 yards per carry with 6 touchdowns. He rushed for 146 yards and 2 TD’s in their 24-20 win at UVA and also scored twice last week at BC. He’s also a big threat in the passing game with 23 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. The Cards have 3 other RB’s with a pair of touchdowns each. One of them is 6’0, 180-pound freshman Duke Watson, from Forsyth, GA, who has just 27 carries but averages 8.2 per. Another is 5’11, 220-pound bruiser Donal Chaney (#21), a junior transfer who played the past 3 seasons at Miami.

If the Cards have a chance of pulling off the upset on the road, it will be because of their offense, not their defense. They average about 2 sacks per game with just 2 interceptions and 5 fumble recoveries this season. Their kicker has had a rough season as well. Senior Brock Travelstead, a Georgia native, is 9-15 with a miss inside of 30 yards. He did make a 56-yarder this season but missed his other 4 attempts beyond 50 yards.

Louisville is ranked No.20 nationally in scoring offense (36.6 points per game), No.10 in passing offense (302.8 yards/game), No.69 in rushing offense (157.25 yards/game) and No.14 in total offense (460 yards/game). The Cards are ranked No.71 in scoring defense (24.6 points/game), No.58 in rush defense (136.25 yards/game), No.76 in pass defense (222.8 yards/game) and No.62 in total defense (359 yards/game).

Surprisingly, the Cards’ 3^rd down offense is No.87 (allowing 38.3 percent conversions). Not surprisingly, their defense is No.52 (allowing 35.96 percent conversions). They are ranked No.98 in red zone offense and No.83 in red zone defense. How is Louisville one of the top offensive teams in the nation, then? The answer is explosive plays. They have the fifth-most plays over 20 yards nationally and are tied for the most plays over 40 yards. Perhaps the biggest advantage the Tigers have on paper is turnover margin. The Tigers are tied for seventh at plus 1.29 turnovers per game. Conversely, Louisville is No.86 at -.25 per game. Let’s hope both of those trends continue!

CLEMSON STATUS

The bye came at a great time for the Tigers, who had several players that were banged up as we closed the month of October. The biggest question is whether freshman phenom WR Bryant Wesco will return to action on Saturday night after missing the last two games. We do know that fellow WR Tyler Brown, who has also missed the last few games, will still be out. The good news for the Tigers is that they haven’t missed a beat offensively with more depth at receiver than they’ve had over their three-year hiatus from the playoff. Antonio Williams, who missed most of last season, has been incredible on a weekly basis, and Troy Stellato has stepped up in a big way in the last couple of games. True freshman TJ Moore has also been a reliable big-play weapon, and Briningstool is one of the best tight ends in the country. We’ve also seen big plays out of Adam Randall and Cole Turner, so with or without Wesco, the Tigers are in good shape offensively. I can't wait to see what kind of trickery we see with Antonio in the passing game on Saturday night! He has completed a big pass in each of the last two games--one for a touchdown and another inside the 5 that set up a TD. The Tigers have also successfully used the jumbo package on 4th down in each of the last two games, with big Peter Woods blocking for Mafah.

One of the biggest stories of the season has been the play of Wade Woodaz at linebacker. All of the preseason talk was about All-American Barrett Carter and true freshman blue-chipper Sammy Brown. However, Woodaz has stepped into the void left by Jeremiah Trotter and played like an All-American. He has been just as impressive as Carter this season. Make no mistake, Sammy Brown’s time is coming soon, but Woodaz has been a beast all season.

Despite scoring just 3 points in the opener, he Tigers are ranked No.4 in scoring offense (42 points per game), No.17 in passing offense (290.6 yards/game), No.26 in rushing offense (199.86 yards/game) and No.5 in total offense (490.4 yards/game). In my opinion, the Tigers’ starting defense is just as good as it was last season, but their rankings are skewed because of all the blowouts in which the backups came in and skewed the numbers. They are ranked No.60 in scoring defense (23 points per game), No.46 in rush defense (130 yards/game), No.70 in pass defense (218 yards/game) and No.52 in total defense (348 yards/game). They are No.26 in 3^rd down offense (45.45 percent) and No.30 in red zone offense. The Tigers are No.19 in 3^rd down defense (31.87 percent) and No.60 in red zone defense. They are No.19 in tackles-for-loss per game.

PREDICTION

Louisville can’t afford to get off to a slow start the way they did at Boston College last week and expect to mount a comeback. The Tigers have started slow offensively in all 3 of their noon games this season, but they have started incredibly fast in all the rest. Good thing this one is at night in Death Valley! The Cards will hit on some explosive plays, but they are not good on third down, and losing Lacy in the passing game is big. The Tigers also have a big advantage in turnover margin (knock on wood), and if that manifests on Saturday night, I like the Tigers do beat the spread.

CLEMSON    48        Louisville    24