WHAT WE ARE HEARING: ACC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.17 CLEMSON vs. NO.8 SMU

Welcome to the ACC Championship edition of What We Are Hearing!

It was a crazy day last Saturday. After the gut punch of losing 17-14 to the Gamecocks, having never trailed until 1:08 left, it looked like it was going to be a disappointing end to the season. But Fran Brown and Syracuse threw Dabo and the Tigers a life line by rallying from 21-0 to upset Miami and put the Tigers in the ACC Championship! For the first time since the Louisville loss, the Tigers control their own destiny and will make the College Football Playoff win a win over SMU in Charlotte.

SMU wasn’t exactly off the radar going into its first season in the ACC. The Mustangs won their conference last season, and many picked them as a dark horse before the season. However, I don’t think anyone expected them to go 8-0 in the regular season! Of course, they did not play Clemson or Miami in the regular season. There has been a lot of talk about whether SMU should still make the playoff should they lose to Clemson. It would be an absolute travesty if SMU is not in the playoff, regardless of what happens on Saturday. The committee screwed the ACC and FSU last season, and now we’re talking about them doing it again?! SMU is 11-1 and 9-0 since elevating Kevin Jennings to starting quarterback. They have blown out almost everyone they’ve played and went undefeated in the ACC. We all saw Georgia Tech take UGA to 8 overtimes in Athens and would have won if not for a fumble with 2 minutes left, so the idea that a 9-3 SEC team like Alabama should get in over an 11-2 SMU team is ludicrous. While I’m on the subject, it would be equally ridiculous for Miami not to make the playoff! The Canes lost one-possession games on the road to a pair of 9-win teams. One of them was the aforementioned Tech team that nearly beat UGA in Athens! Alabama, on the other hand, lost to Vandy and was blown out by a .500 Oklahoma team. Enough is enough!

As for the Tigers, it’s simple: win and they’re in, lose and they’re not. However, it remains to be seen whether the Tigers would get one of the top four seeds and the coveted bye in the first round of the playoff. Boise State locked up one of the top four seeds last night, so the Tigers would have to jump over the winner of the Big 12 Championship, which would be 11-2 and is already ranked ahead of the Tigers in this week’s rankings. The Tigers probably have to beat SMU convincingly and hope for an ugly, close game between Iowa State and Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship. It would be just my luck that the Tigers would end up playing in the first round in Oregon or Columbus, when they could have had a first-round bye and play the second round in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta! In all my years of going to playoff games, I haven’t once been able to make the easy drive to Atlanta. This should have been the year! The ACC Champion would be in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl, provided it is a top-four seed, but the Tigers may have screwed me again by losing to the Gamecocks.

But I digress…On to the matchup!

For the Mustangs, the insertion of Kevin Jennings at quarterback was a game-changer for their season. He came into the game against BYU and came up short 18-15 for their only loss, but as the starter since, he has been sensational. The 6’0, 189-pound redshirt sophomore has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,746 yards and 19 touchdowns with 7 interceptions. He has also rushed for 344 yards and 4 scores, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He’s only been sacked 9 times, although Stanford and FSU were each able to get to him thrice.

Jennings will spread the ball around to his wide receivers and tight ends. 6’1, 191-pound senior Key’Shawn Smith (#9) leads the way with 30 catches and 5 touchdowns, averaging 16.6 yards per catch. 6’1, 192-pound junior Jordan Hudson (#8) also has 5 scores and 31 catches. 5’9, 182-pound senior Roderick Daniels, Jr. (#13) has 30 catches and 2 TD’s, averaging 16.7 yards per catch. 6’4, 233-pound junior TE RJ Maryland (#82) has 24 catches and 4 touchdowns, while 6’5, 254-pound senior TE Matthew Hibner (#88) has 17 catches and 3 scores.

The Mustangs have a well-balanced offense with a running game to go with their passing attack. In addition to quarterback runs by Jennings, they have a prolific back in 5’10, 196-pound senior Brashard Smith (#1), a transfer from Miami. He has rushed for 1,157 yards and 14 touchdowns this season, averaging 6 yards per carry. You may recall his 80-yard runs against the Tigers early in the game down at Miami last season, which helped the Canes to an overtime win. Smith also has 29 receptions and 3 TD catches. They like to use their wide receivers, Daniels and McFall, in the run game as well. Daniels has 43 carries with 3 touchdowns, and McFall has 24 carries and 2 scores.

Add all of that up, and the Mustangs have the nation’s No.4 scoring offense, but that rank is a little deceptive. From a passing and rushing yardage standpoint, they are nowhere near the top 10, but they have scored a lot of points on defense and special teams, which are included in that ranking.

SMU is ranked No.4 in scoring offense (39.2 points per game), No.48 in rushing offense (177.92 yards/game), No.30 in passing offense (263.9 yards/game) and No.22 in total offense (441.8 yards/game). The Mustangs are No.19 in scoring defense (19.8 points per game), No.4 in rush defense (95.83 yards/game), No.85 in pass defense (230.3 yards/game) and No.28 in total defense (326.1 yards/game). They are No.20 in 3rd down offense and No.11 in 3rd down defense. They are No.54 in red zone offense, No.16 in red zone defense and No.54 in turnover margin.

CLEMSON STATUS

The Tigers will be without the services of WR Troy Stellato, who was injured a couple weeks ago and entered the transfer portal this week. However, the offensive line got a boost last week with the return of Tristan Leigh and Marcus Tate. LB Wade Woodaz and CB Shelton Lewis are also back, but it remains to be seen whether DT Demonte Capehart, WR Tyler Brown or S RJ Mickens will play on Saturday. They all made the trip to Charlotte!

I thought Cade played a great game against the Gamecocks with the exception of three key plays. He missed Wesco twice—the first of which would have been a touchdown and the second would have been a big third down conversion in the fourth quarter. And, of course, his last play of the game was an ill-advised throw that was tipped and intercepted to end the game when the Tigers were in position to kick a field goal for overtime or win with a touchdown. There were a few of positives from the loss. First, the offensive line did a nice job protecting Cade against an elite pass rush. Second, the Tigers won the turnover margin—which almost always equates to a win. They have done a great job protecting the ball all season, unlike last year’s disaster, and are ranked No.5 in turnover margin. Finally, the Tigers’ receivers did a great job with contested catches last week, and Cade made some big throws. SMU plays a ton of man coverage, so let’s hope we see that again on Saturday!

PREDICTION

The Tigers should have a significant crowd advantage on Saturday night. The proximity to Charlotte is one of the reasons Dabo and the Tigers are 8-0 in ACC Championship Games at Bank of America Stadium! The Mustangs’ fan base is excited about this opportunity, and many will travel from Dallas, but it should still almost feel like a home game for the Tigers. Two of the Mustangs’ only weaknesses are penalties and turnover margin. They committed a whopping 17 penalties last week against Cal and rank No.131 (fourth to last) with 80.2 penalty yards per game. They rank No.54 in turnover margin, which is where the Tigers have thrived, ranked fifth. Those two factors could make the difference in an equally matched game. Dabo’s teams have always played well after a loss, and the Tigers are playing with their 9th life on Saturday night, knowing this is their last chance at a great season.

I think it’s Another Clemson Championship, and the Tigers return to the College Football Playoff!

CLEMSON    27        SMU    24