WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.12 CLEMSON at NO.5 TEXAS

Welcome to the College Football Playoff edition of What We Are Hearing!

 

After a three-year playoff drought, the Tigers won the ACC Championship to punch their ticket to the first-ever 12-team playoff! It’s their seventh playoff appearance, which is second only to Alabama. The Tigers are also second in playoff wins behind Bama, but the Tide did not make it this year! Ironically, if the Tigers had comfortably put away SMU when they had a 17-point lead, Alabama probably would have made the field, but because SMU rallied to tie the game with under a minute left, the Mustangs were rightfully given that final at-large spot instead of Dabo’s alma mater.

 

Amazingly, this is the first-ever meeting between the Tigers and Longhorns, two of the most storied programs in history. It’s hard to believe that their paths have never crossed in all this time. Texas is No.5 in all-time wins, and the Tigers are No.13, ahead of Auburn and behind LSU. Of course, the Longhorns will have home field advantage in this first-round game, which is something brand new to the sport. I have never been to Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium, so I am looking forward to checking it off my bucket list! The only time Dabo has been there was to watch Cade win a high school playoff game his senior season. In fact, Dabo was standing behind the end zone with Head Coach Steve Sarkisian during that game! After the Tigers beat SMU, I had a gut feeling that the committee would send the Tigers to Cade’s hometown. The Tigers will have to play their absolute best for four quarters on Saturday to pull off the upset in that environment, but if they do, they will thankfully play in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta against Cinderella Arizona State!

 

Before I dive into the big game, some big news this week for those of you who may have missed it. On Monday, Dabo signed a wide receiver out of the transfer portal: 6’5, 205-pound junior Tristan Smith. The Georgia native played a couple years of JUCO before having a great year at SEMO in the FCS this season. The media naturally made a huge deal out of this because in the portal era, Dabo has only taken two transfers, and they were both backup quarterbacks that were never expected to start. One of the was Hunter Johnson, who returned to Clemson after transferring to Northwestern, and the other was Paul Tyson, the great-grandson of Bear Bryant from Alabama. I’ve been talking for years about the fact that Dabo has kept winning in spite of being the only coach in major college football not to take advantage of the portal. Even Nick Saban, Kirby Smart and Ryan Day have benefitted greatly from transfers, and they have had top five recruiting classes year-in and year-out! So when Dabo signed a skill position player that should compete for significant playing time, the internet went crazy. However, I wasn’t very surprised by it at all. Dabo has always said that they would use the portal if they had a need by virtue of injuries or players leaving. In fact, they went shopping for an offensive lineman a couple of years ago but were unable to find the fit that they wanted. WR Troy Stellato, who had been one of Cade’s regular targets all season, entered the portal a few weeks ago, and freshman WR Noble Johnson, from Texas, followed suit last week. So the Tigers had an immediate void to fill, and Dabo was able to find his guy.

 

The much bigger news to me is what transpired just days later on Thursday! Purdue DE Will Heidt announced that he would be transferring to Clemson. While this is also not any sort of deviation from Dabo’s philosophy—they had a need to fill at defensive end as well—Heldt was the most highly sought-after DE available in the portal. The 6’6, 265-pound sophomore posted 5 sacks and 10 tackles-for-loss at Purdue this season and chose the Tigers over LSU and Texas A&M. Because the Tigers were thin on the edge this season, they moved Peter Woods out to end ala Christian Wilkins. With the addition of Heldt, the Tigers can play Woods at his natural three technique on the interior with Parker, Heldt, Hoffler and Lawson on the outside.

 

Finally, the Tigers jumped to No.16 in the college basketball rankings last week after beating No.4 Kentucky. Unfortunately, they lost back-to-back overtime games to Memphis and at South Carolina. The Tigers did not play their best in either and let the former slip away when they had a 5-point lead with a minute left in regulation. They showed a ton of heart with a miraculous comeback in Columbia but fell short in overtime after both Ian and Viktor fouled out. Chase Hunter was scoreless in the first half but posted 25 in the second half, including a buzzer beater 3-pointer to send it to overtime! While the Tigers are not looking for moral victories, there is definitely no shame in those losses. Memphis is a top-20 team in my opinion and probably played their best game of the season in Littlejohn. Head Coach Penny Hardaway told us after the game that it was their best win yet, even though they had already beaten two-time defending champ UConn (No.2 at the time) and Michigan State! The Gamecocks are also an NCAA Tournament caliber team, and the Tigers were fighting a big, hostile crowd and potential lottery pick Murray-Boyles, who absolutely carried the Gamecocks to the win. The Tigers are 9-3 and will drop in the rankings as a result of the two losses, but there is good reason to be excited about this team going forward to follow up last season’s historic Elite Eight run. Hopefully, they will be able to beat a very good Wake team at home on Saturday with not much of a home crowd. The student body is gone for Christmas Break, and the basketball game tips off right before the football game in Austin!

 

Enough hoops for now! On to the playoff…

 

TEXAS SYNOPSIS

Steve Sarkisian, a beneficiary of the Nick Saban halfway house for coaches, has resurrected Texas as a national power, now making a second-straight playoff appearance. Ironically, Dabo and the Tigers might have played a part in his revival. It was right after the Tigers blew out Alabama in the 2018 season National Championship that Saban hired Sarkisian as his offensive coordinator. Sarkisian was formerly the head coach at USC and Washington, but trouble with alcoholism resulted in his termination at the former. He’s always been highly respected for his offensive acumen, and Saban hired him as an offensive analyst for the 2016 season. Dabo would win his first national championship over Saban, Sarkisian and Alabama that season in one of the all-time classics. After a couple seasons in the NFL, Saban brought Sarkisian back as OC at Alabama following the embarrassing rout at the hands of Dabo and the Tigers. Here we are, 6 years later, and Dabo will square off with Sarkisian for the first time as head coaches.

 

The Longhorns are led by QB Quinn Ewers, who Cade competed against in high school. They also competed in the famous Elite 11 quarterback camp, and Cade got the upper hand, being named MVP. Ewers had a breakout season last year, beginning with beating Alabama by double digits in Tuscaloosa. He was a preseason Heisman favorite and off to a great start, blowing out defending champ Michigan in Ann Arbor, but he was sidelined for a couple of games at the end of September with a strained oblique. That opened the door for celebrated backup Arch Manning, grandson of Archie and nephew of Peyton and Eli. He was one of the biggest recruits in recent years, and many Texas fans were foaming at the mouth to see him play as soon as possible. They got their opportunity, and the 6’4, 225-pound freshman ran with it, literally. He had two great games against a couple of inferior opponents in Louisiana Monroe and Mississippi State, but Sarkisian made it clear that Ewers was still their starting quarterback. As promised, Ewers returned as the starter and prospered until the top-5 showdown with Georgia in Austin. He was harassed by the Bulldogs’ defense all night and went just 25-43 for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. He was also sacked 5 times, as he is not nearly as athletic as Manning. In fact, he was sacked 4 times in the following game against Vandy with two more INT’s. Ewers rebounded nicely with a blowout win over Florida, throwing 5 TD’s with no interceptions, and Manning saw the field in that game as well. However, Ewers suffered a high ankle sprain against Kentucky, and although he started at Texas A&M and in the SEC Championship rematch with Georgia, the injury clearly affected his play, especially his mobility in the pocket. In fact, the Bulldogs sacked him 6 more times in Atlanta, and he was just 27-46 passing with one touchdown and two interceptions.

 

One of the big stories to watch on Saturday will be whether that ankle is still bothering Ewers, and regardless of his status, how much, if at all, Arch Manning will play. Even though Ewers has had two weeks off, high ankle sprains notoriously take a long time to heal, and he could obviously reinjure it at any time in the game. Meanwhile, Manning has not attempted a pass since mop-up duty in the Florida blowout. He ran the ball 3 times for 14 yards and a TD against the Aggies, but he had just one run for five yards in the SEC Championship. Personally, I expect that we will see some sort of package for Manning to be worked into the offense, irrespective of Ewers’s ankle. Manning just offers a different element to the offense with his running ability, and you can bet that Sarkisian took note of what Sellers did to the Tigers with his legs, single-handedly carrying the Gamecocks to a last-minute win in Death Valley. Wes Goodwin and the Tigers surely have prepared for Manning being in the game over the past two weeks!

 

Ewers and Manning will spread the ball around to their deep receiving corps. 6’0, 195-pound junior Matthew Golden (#2), a transfer from Houston, leads the way with 8 touchdowns, averaging 15.7 yards per catch. 5’11, 180-pound junior Isaiah Bond (#7), a native of Buford, GA, is an Alabama transfer with 5 TD’s, averaging 16.1 yards per catch. 6’0, 195-pound sophomore DeAndre Moore, Jr. (#0) has 6 scores. 6’2, 210-pound true freshman Ryan Wingo (#5) only has 24 catches and 2 TD’s, but he averages 16.4 yards per catch. The Horns also have a solid tight end in 6’5, 250-pound senior Gunnar Helm (#85), who has 49 catches with 5 scores. Including the tight end, they have 5 players with at least 4 TD catches and 9 players with at least one.

 

Not counting Manning, the Horns have a three-headed monster in the run game, each of whom averages 5 yards per carry. 6’0, 200-pound sophomore Quintrevion Wisner (#26) leads the way with 863 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is the workhorse. He rushed for over 150 yards in back-to-back games against Kentucky and A&M, but Georgia held him to just 2.7 yards per rush in the SEC Championship, however. Next in the pecking order is 6’0, 200-pound junior Jayden Blue (#23), who has 564 yards and 6 scores. 5’10, 205-pound true freshman Jerrick Gibson (#9) has 342 yards and 4 TD’s. I expect to see wide receivers Isaiah Bond and/or Ryan Wingo used in the run game at some point on end-arounds, reverses and jet sweeps.

 

The Horns have arguably the best defense in the nation. They are No.2 in scoring defense and No.1 in pass defense. Former Tiger Andrew Mukuba has been a big part of that success. The former Clemson Freshman All-American safety is second on the team in tackles and has 4 interceptions with a forced fumble. He grew up in Austin, and it was kind of a surprise that he had so much interest in Clemson coming out of high school, but he wound up back home by way of the transfer portal.

 

The Hors have a stout defensive front, but it’s actually a linebacker tandem that leads the team in sacks. Freshman Colin Simmons (#11) has 8, and sophomore Anthony Hill, Jr. (#0) has 7.5! The two have also combined for 7 forced fumbles along with an interception by Hill.

 

As for special teams, senior kicker Bert Auburn has had an inconsistent season and was much better over the past two years. He is 14-21 on field goals this season, going 6-11 between 40-49 yards and 0-2 over 50. He made a 54-yarder last year, but his long this year season is 49.

 

On the injury front, the Horns’ star left tackle, 6’4, 320-pound junior Kelvin Banks, Jr. (#78), missed the SEC Championship with an ankle injury, and that played a big part in the Bulldogs’ 6 sacks of Ewers, as Texas had a redshirt freshman playing in his spot. Banks is expected to play on Saturday, but if he is not 100 percent, Parker will have a field day in the Longhorns’ backfield!

 

Texas is ranked No. 24in scoring offense (33.6 points per game), No.64 in rushing offense (164.38 yards/game), No.13 in passing offense (281 yards/game) and No.18 in total offense (445.4 yards/game). The Horns are No.2 in scoring defense (12.5 points per game), No.1 in pass defense (143.1 yards/game), No.13 in rush defense (106.38 yards/game) and No.3 in total defense (249.5 yards/game). They are No.33 in 3rd down offense (43.68 percent) and No.6 in 3rd down defense (30.56 percent). They are surprisingly No.93 in red zone offense, No.7 in red zone defense, No.35 in turnover margin (plus 0.46 per game) and No.80 in penalties (53.7 yards/game).

 

CLEMSON STATUS

The biggest question mark for the Tigers is undoubtedly going to be the run game. Mafah is so banged up that he has been ineffective in recent games and will require shoulder surgery after the season. To make matters worse, backup Jay Haynes tore his ACL on an ill-advised kickoff return from the goal line in the ACC Championship. Mafah will start on Saturday, but the loss of Haynes means that it will be up to sophomore Keith Adams, Jr. and freshmen Easy E and Jarvis Green—all of whom have little experience—to carry the load if Mafah is knocked out of the game. Depending on how effective the backs can be, it might put more of an onus on Cade to pick up chunks of yards with his legs even more than usual. Adams is a very tough, physical back who runs the way his legendary dad played linebacker at Clemson. Dabo always says that it’s a business decision to tackle him. It will be tough sledding. The Horns’ run defense isn’t quite as elite as their pass defense, but they are still No.13 against the run.

 

Obviously, this will be a homecoming for Cade and, as noted, won’t be the first time he has played on this field, so it will be familiar territory for him. The big question to me is how he handles the moment. Will he be so amped up and excited that he air mails some passes early? He has played great of late but has also missed some fairly easy throws that would have gone for touchdowns. One was to Wesco against the Gamecocks, and he missed him again in Charlotte. There is no question that Cade will absolutely lay it all on the line to win this game for many reasons, but hopefully he will be able to harness and control the excitement and emotion while executing with precision. If he does, look out!

 

Cade is not the only native Texan on the Tigers’ roster, either! Senior captain RJ Mickens, freshman sensation Bryant Wesco and redshirt freshman OL Harris Sewell all hail from the Lonestar State. Let’s hope they are able to control and harness their emotions as well!

 

PREDICTION

The Tigers have looked like world beaters at times on both sides of the ball this season, but they haven’t been able to put it all together for four quarters yet. Even in their 6 blowout wins before the bye, the starters were great for a half, but the backups played most of the second halves and were average at best. The offense has had fast starts and slow ones. Same for the defense. And, of course, special teams have been all over the place! Hopefully, their kicking woes are behind them with Hauser’s heroic and historic game-winner in the ACC Championship. It was the longest game-winner in Clemson history and right in the true freshman’s back yard of Charlotte! Ironically, he missed his first field goal of the season (that wasn’t blocked) earlier in the game.

 

Let’s hope that Garrett Riley has come up with some wrinkles over the last couple of weeks to catch the Horns off guard because the Tigers are going to need it against that stingy defense. If the Tigers are going to pull off the upset as a double-digit underdog, they will have to get off to a fast start to mitigate the crowd and keep it up for 60 minutes. They will also need to win the turnover margin—something they have done extremely well all season. In fact, they are No.5 nationally in turnover margin at plus 1.23 per game. If they had been even close to that last season, they would have won the ACC and made the playoff for sure! Even in the loss to the Gamecocks, the Tigers won the turnover margin.

 

You always expect to see trick plays in a game like this, and I can’t wait to see what creativity we see from Riley and Sarkisian on Saturday.

 

Many will be shocked if the Tigers win this game in Austin. I will not. Dabo has more playoff experience than anyone in the field, and the Tigers have the “Us Against the World” mentality to go with the momentum and confidence of beating SMU the way they did. A win like that has immeasurable intangible value and can completely elevate a team to another level. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a loss, their second to Georgia this season. I’m sure they will be angry and looking to take that anger out on the Tigers, but it might also create some doubt and will certainly add to the pressure if the game is close late. The Tigers weren’t even supposed to be here and are playing with house money, while many expected Texas to win it all preseason. Also, this is No.12 versus No.5. Any erudite of college basketball knows that the most common upsets every year come from the 12/5 games! In addition, who knows how Ewers will perform on that ankle and whether he will even make it through the game?

 

With all that being said, I’m going to do something I’ve never done in my 10 years covering the Tigers. Again, I will not be shocked in the least if the Tigers win, but this team has been too inconsistent all season to beat this complete Texas team with a chip on its shoulder in Austin. If the game were in Death Valley, I would probably take the Tigers as I have with every other prediction since 2015. As a Clemson alumnus, I will be happy to be wrong! Whatever happens, it was a great accomplishment to win the ACC again and make a seventh CFP appearance, and I think even bigger things are in store for the Tigers next year!

 

 

CLEMSON    17        Texas    21