WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.4 CLEMSON vs. NO.9 LSU

Welcome to the Season Opener edition of What We Are Hearing!

 

The day we’ve all been eagerly awaiting for months is finally here! I remember several years ago when the home-and-home with LSU was scheduled, and it seemed like so far in the distant future. Where does the time go?! Of course, everyone nationally is calling this heavyweight matchup the battle of the Death Valleys, but we all know that regardless of the outcome, Clemson has always been and will always be the original, TRUE Death Valley.

 

Most of you know your history, but for those who don’t, here’s a quick lesson. Clemson’s Memorial Stadium was nicknamed Death Valley by an opposing coach, Lonnie McMillan of Presbyterian College, way back in 1946 because his teams typically were slaughtered by the Tigers, and the stadium sits in a natural valley, surrounded by hills. Decades later, a reporter thought it would be a cute play on words to call LSU’s Tiger Stadium “Deaf Valley” because it is so loud. It didn’t take long for that to morph into Death Valley, and the LSU copycats eventually put a Death Valley sign in their stadium, again, decades after Clemson had done so. I’ve always thought it was an embarrassment that a football program and fan base as proud and storied as LSU would stoop to copying another school’s tradition. They should have been original and called their stadium The Jungle, which would have been original and would have made perfect sense. Alas, they decided to be unoriginal copycats. Incidentally, Auburn started calling its basketball arena The Jungle a few years ago. At least they are original.

 

It's hard to believe that these two college football blue-bloods have only met 4 times in 130 years! LSU is 12th all-time in wins with 815, and Clemson is right on its heels with 808! Of course, the last meeting was the biggest meeting of all: the 2019 National Championship. Both programs had 3 national titles going into the game, and both teams were undefeated. In fact, Clemson was riding a 29-game win streak and the first school to go 15-0, looking to do so in back-to-back seasons. However, LSU came out of nowhere in 2019 with Joe Burrow having arguably the greatest season ever by a quarterback, and the Bayou Bengals got their 4th national title instead of Clemson.

 

The previous meeting was an instant classic in the 2012 Peach Bowl.  Thanks to Tajh Boyd and Nuk Hopkins converting on 4th and 16, Chandler “Cat Man” Catanzaro was able to drill a last-second field goal to give the Tigers their only win over LSU.

 

The stakes might not be as high as the last meeting in the national championship, but they are still very high! A win would almost assure a repeat playoff berth for Clemson because even if the Tigers were to go 9-3, the win over LSU would get them in. It would also confirm what everyone believes this team is capable of. Many pundits, including Rece Davis and Greg McElroy, ranked Clemson No.1 preseason, and several others, including Fox’s Joel Klatt, picked Clemson to win the natty. Going up against one of the SEC’s elite teams with a top-4 Heisman candidate quarterback should be a good barometer to see if this Clemson team is what we all think it is!

 

On to the matchup…

 

MISCELLANEOUS

LSU leads the all-time series 3-1…This will be the first meeting at either school’s stadium…This is the first season opener at home for Clemson since beating Georgia Tech in 2019, the same season that ended in a loss to LSU in the National Championship…Clemson is 4-2 all-time in AP top-10 matchups at home, winning the last 3…This will be the 3rd time in 5 years that Clemson has opened the season against a top-10 opponent from the SEC…Since 2011, Clemson and Alabama are tied for the most double-digit win seasons (13)….Clemson has won at least 9 games for 14 straight seasons, tied with FSU for the 3rd longest streak in history…Clemson has won at least one post-season game for 14 straight years, which is the longest such streak in history…Clemson looks to finish in the AP top 25 for a 15th straight year, which has only been accomplished 5 times in history…Clemson has the longest active streak (19) of consecutive seasons with at least 5 home wins. Alabama is 2nd with 17…Clemson and Boise State have finished .500 or better in conference play for 26 straight years, tied for the longest streak in the nation…Dabo needs just 15 wins in the next 3 seasons to tie Nebraska’s Tom Osborne for most wins by a head coach in his first 20 seasons…With a perfect 8-0 ACC record this season, Dabo would break Bobby Bowden’s record for career regular-season ACC wins…Clemson will play multiple SEC teams this season for the 19th time in the last 20 years. The lone exception was 2020, when the SEC refused to play non-conference teams due to Covid…

 

LSU SYNOPSIS

Amazingly, LSU has not won a season opener since their magical 2019 season, when they went undefeated by beating Trevor Lawrence and Clemson in the National Championship, ending the Tigers’ 29-game win streak. It was also the only time LSU made the College Football Playoff. Since that season, they’ve lost openers to UCLA, FSU (twice) and, most recently, USC. A couple of those games could have gone either way, but they were routed by FSU two years ago. Consequently, Brian Kelly has doubled down on this opener at Clemson, placing a higher emphasis on it than any opener in the past. He even put Clemson Tiger Paws all over their weight room and facility all summer. He even gave Clemson bulletin board material by referring to Memorial Stadium as “Death Valley, Jr.” Clearly, Kelly doesn’t know his college football history. As I mentioned earlier, Clemson was known as Death Valley decades before LSU, so if Clemson is “Death Valley, Jr.,” then that would make LSU Death Valley, III.  This is Kelly’s fourth year in Baton Rouge, and he is definitely feeling the pressure to have a big season. Anything short of making the playoff would make his seat extremely hot—especially with his successor, Marcus Freeman, making it to the national championship last year and likely making the playoff again this year.

Kelly had a Heisman-winning quarterback a couple of seasons ago in transfer Jayden Daniels but still failed to make the playoff. Incidentally, Deshaun Watson is still the only QB in history with over 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a season, and led Clemson to its first national title in 35 years, yet he somehow lost the Heisman to Alabama’s Derek Henry with pedestrian stats compared to the all-time greats. But I digress…

 

Kelly and LSU have another Heisman candidate in Garrett Nussmeier, so they expectations for this team are extremely high coming into the season. In my opinion, Nussmeier is worthy of the hype. He is the son of a longtime NFL coach, so his football IQ is through the roof, and he can make all the throws. He is not as prolific in the run game as his counterpart and fellow Heisman candidate, Cade Klubnik, but Nussmeier is a savvy scrambler and extremely proficient at extending plays and passing on the run. The Clemson secondary will have to be good in the scramble drill on Saturday night! Nussmeier was a first-year starter last season and completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. We all remember how bumpy Cade’s first year as a starter was and how much he improved last season. Let’s hope Nussmeier hasn’t improved as much as Cade did! Nussmeier rushed for -1.1 net yards per carry with his sacks factored in, but he did rush for 3 touchdowns. He will not be rattled by the environment or playing from behind. LSU trailed the Gamecocks by 17 in Columbia early last season, in only his third or fourth start, and Nussmeier led a come-from-behind victory with clutch play after play. And now he is even more experienced and confident. He will be tough to sack because of his pocket presence, scrambling and ability to get rid of the ball quickly.

 

He also has some formidable weapons at his disposal. Their top two receivers last season, Aaron Anderson and Kyren Lacy, have both returned. Anderson (#1) is a 5’8 slot receiver who had 61 catches for 884 yards and 5 touchdowns last season. Lacy (#2) is 6’2 and had 58 catches for 866 yards and 9 TD’s. They also brought in 6’4 Nic Anderson (#4) from Oklahoma. He missed last season with a quad injury but had 10 TD’s for the Sooners in 2023 and averaged 21 yards per catch. 6’0 senior Chris Hilton (#3) only had 9 catches last season, but 3 of them went for scores, and he averaged a whopping 27 yards per catch. 5’10 senior Zavion Thomas (#0) had a pair of TD’s last season and is a dangerous return man. They also have a solid tight end in 6’7 Trey’Dez Green (#14), who had 4 TD’s last season and is dangerous in the red zone.

 

In the backfield, 5’9, 205-pound Caden Durham (#29) carried the load last season as a freshman, averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 6 touchdowns. He also had 28 catches, including 2 more scores. He has a low center of gravity and has both speed and power.

 

On the defensive side, keep an eye on LB Harold Perkins, Jr. (#7). He was a 5-star recruit and is a prolific pass rusher, but he missed most of last season with a torn ACL. They use him in different ways because of his versatility, sometimes rushing the passer and sometimes dropping in coverage. Dabo told me that they will need to know where he is on the field at all times. Whit Weeks (#40) is also a great linebacker, leading the team last season with 120 tackles, and he had 3.5 sacks with 2 forced fumbles and an interception. In fact, this will be one of the best games for linebacker play you will see all season with Wade Woodaz and Sammy Brown on the other side for Clemson. LSU lost its two best edge rushers from last season to the NFL, but they plucked DE Patrick Payton  (#6) from FSU, where he had 16 career sacks and beat LSU twice. The LSU secondary was a weakness last season, which is uncharacteristic for a program known as “DBU.” They were ranked No.76 nationally in pass defense and had just 6 interceptions. However, they brought in a talented safety from Houston in AJ Haulcy, who will miss the first half on Saturday night due to an ejection at the end of last season for fighting. They also brought in NC native Tamarcus Cooley (#0) from NC State, who had 3 INT’s and 2 forced fumbles for the Wolfpack last season.

 

As you can see, Brian Kelly hit the portal hard, bringing in 18 transfers, which was among the most in the country. Their transfer class was widely regarded as one of the best in the country, but we all know what a crap shoot it can be to rely on the portal. It resulted in FSU going 13-0 in 2023, but the very next year, they had their worst season in 50 years! I like to say, live by the portal, die by the portal, which is why Dabo is now making fools out of all those critics who said he was stubborn and foolish for not jumping on the portal bandwagon like everyone else. The LSU transfers have combined for 259 career starts. By contrast, the 3 Clemson transfers have combined for just 22 starts, and half of those were at the FCS level!

 

LSU’s kicker, Damian Ramos, was 23-29 on field goals last season, with a long of 50 yards. He only attempted two kicks from 50 or more.

 

CLEMSON STATUS

It seems like the stars have all aligned for the Tigers this season. I knew this time a year ago that the offense would be incredible this season with all they would be bringing back, and they’ve even added another great receiver in Tristan Smith from FCS Southeast Missouri. He had the best spring game of all the receivers, and Dabo considers him one of their six “starters” at the position. The Clemson offense returns over 80 percent of its production from last season, which is the highest in the nation, and they had one of the best offenses last year. Nationally, most know about Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco and TJ Moore, but they forget about Tyler Brown and Cole Turner, who were both injured last season and are now healthy. Brown was a Freshman All-American two years ago and can fill in for Antonio at the slot without missing a beat. Turner is one of the fastest players on the team and, despite being new to the position, has shown flashes of greatness.

 

Moreover, it’s been years since the Tigers were in such good health going into a season (knock on wood). Most people don’t realize that injuries were probably the biggest reason that the Tigers missed the playoff for 3 straight years. They came excruciatingly close to  making it twice, even despite the worst plague of injuries Dabo has had in his career. Perhaps the law of averages caught up with him because they were extremely blessed with few injuries during the six-year playoff run, and both national title teams were lucky in that regard. Let’s hope the cycle has come full-circle, and team 130 will avoid the injury bug!

 

The biggest news to come out of camp was the arrest of new TE Ian Schieffelin for suspected DUI a couple of weeks ago. Dabo told us that he will miss the opener but will be allowed to play against Troy next week. Honestly, I’m not sure how much he would have played in the opener anyway. Tight end is the most complicated position to learn next to quarterback, and he hasn’t played football since high school. The Tigers have solid tight ends in Patt-Henry and Sapp, as well. Ian might have been used on special teams, though. His length and jumping ability are ideal for blocking kicks. It was a disappointing setback because I was really excited to see him run down The Hill for the first time, but we will have to wait an extra week. I have no doubt that he will redeem himself in the long run. He seems to really have been embraced by his teammates in a short time.

I cannot wait to see what Adam Randall does on Saturday night! Dabo thinks that Randall will be one of the great stories of college football this season, and if he stays healthy, he might be right. Randall is a great team leader and seems to have taken to the backfield like a fish in water (or a pig in mud, as Dabo would say). With a great offensive line blocking for him—4 of 5 returning starters—I have no doubt that he can tote the rock. But what I am really excited about is how Riley will use him in the passing game. It’s not often that a running back has the size, hands and route running of an Adam Randall! Imagine a defense trying to cover all of those dangerous receivers and then having to worry about Randall slipping out of the backfield on a wheel route! The only concerns I have about him are his pass protection and ball security. Hopefully, he will check both of those boxes on Saturday night. Behind Randall is plenty of depth, by the way. 5-Star freshman Gideon Davidson is physically ready to go, but he will also need to earn trust in pass protection. Easy E and Keith Adams have plenty of experience and are both very capable. Both are violent runners as well. By the way, it’s only a matter of time until Jay Haynes is back and ready to go. Honestly, I think that the offense would prosper with any one of those guys, considering the offensive line, all the weapons at receiver and Cade’s ability to drive defenses crazy with his legs. Simply put, this offense should be unstoppable.

 

On the defensive side, the Tigers are almost as formidable, which is why I believe that it is the most complete team in the nation. And that’s why so many have Clemson No.1 in their preseason rankings. Tom Allen led Penn State to a top-10 defense last season in his first year as their defensive coordinator, and I think he will do the same at Clemson. It was inspiring to watch him at practice this month, and you can see the players respond to him. At one practice, I heard him yelling over the microphone, “Best tackling team in America! That is the expectation!” That was obviously a big weakness last season and highly uncharacteristic for what we’re used to from a Clemson defense. He told me that he has been pleased with the tackling in camp and in the scrimmages. With the addition of DE Will Heldt—considered by many to be the top DE in the portal—from Purdue, the Tigers may have the best defensive line in the nation, just like they did in 2018. TJ Parker is on the other end and has a chance to be the first Tiger with double-digit sacks in consecutive seasons since Vic Beasley. Peter Woods, who played much of last season at DE, moves back to his natural position on the interior alongside Demonte Capehart. Dabo told me that he considers Lawson a third starter at DE and has transformed himself physically into a complete player who can set the edge in the run game, just like his big brother Shaq. Dabo also said that Cade Denhoff is not far behind the other three. There is depth inside as well with Stephiylan Green and Vic Burley, who had a great spring and August camp.

I mentioned the linebacker duo of Woodaz and Brown already, and they have developed some depth there as well with Jamal Anderson, Kobe McCloud and Alabama transfer Jeremiah Alexander. Incidentally, Dabo told me after the first scrimmage that redshirt freshman LB CJ Kubah-Taylor is the hardest hitter on the team! I’m looking forward to seeing that for myself down the road.

 

On the back end, the Tigers are equally talented, experienced and deep. Corner Aevion Terrell will be an NFL first-rounder just like his brother AJ. In fact, Aevion is now wearing AJ’s #8. At 6’2 and 200 pounds, Ashton Hampton had a great freshman year last season and should be even better as a sophomore. You also have a ton of experience in Jeadyn Lukus and Shelton Lewis. Dabo was also very pleased with the emergence of Corian Gipson and Branden Strozier at corner during camp. Just as much experience at safety with Khalil Barnes, who is an interception machine, Kylon Griffin and “old man” Tyler Venables. Ricardo Jones and Ronan Hanafin will also provide some depth at the position. Hanafin made the move to safety a year ago, and I am super excited to see what he does this season. The defense has future NFL first-rounders and depth at all three levels. With the transfer of Tre Williams, who graduated, I would like to have a little more depth at defensive tackle, but let’s just hope Woods, Capehart and Green all stay healthy!

 

The only real question mark at this point is at punter. Who will replace Aidan Swanson? Dabo said that it’s so tight between three guys that he might not know until warmups on Saturday. My money is on Jack Smith, but whoever it is, he might be replaced if his first punt isn’t a good one. Unlike the craziness at the kicker position for the last two seasons, the Tigers know they have a great one in Nolan Hauser, the hero of the ACC Championship as a freshman last year. Dabo told me after the first scrimmage that he was disappointed in Hauser’s performance in camp to that point, but he has since been much better. Let’s just hope for no more protection issues like the first half of last season!

 

PREDICTION

It should be perfect football weather on Saturday night, and I’m getting goose bumps just thinking about it. This is going to be one of those truly special, electric atmospheres in Death Valley under the lights. Clemson is now favored by 4.5 points, and it’s an early heavyweight fight that could have massive playoff implications and might also determine who ends up winning the Heisman. Incidentally, Urban Meyer predicted a few nights ago that Cade will win the Heisman. The odds-makers have Cade and Nussmeier tied for the second-best odds to win the Heisman, and they will go head to head on Saturday night. I have zero expectations for the Heisman because Clemson has been screwed out of it three times and has never won the namesake trophy of its former coach. Spiller should have won over Ingram in 2009, and Watson should have won twice—especially in 2016 over Lamar Jackson. Anyway, it’s far too early to be talking about the Heisman.

 

It will be interesting to see how much of a gambler Brian Kelly is on Saturday night. Traditionally, he is very aggressive offensively and will often go for it on 4th and short. However, they have an inexperienced, patchwork offensive line that will be dealing with a deafening noise level. Not to mention it’s the first game of the season! I expect at least 3 false starts and/or delays of game for the LSU offense.

 

Look, I hate to be overconfident, but in my opinion, Clemson should win this game as long as they are -1 or better in the turnover margin. Even at -2 or -3, I think Clemson could possibly win. Nussmeier is a great quarterback, and they have great receivers, but I think they are too one-dimensional, lacking a strong run game with a questionable offensive line. In addition, the LSU secondary is a weakness. Texas had the No.1 pass defense in the nation last season, and Cade absolutely shredded it in Austin. I think LSU is going to be overwhelmed by this Clemson offense, and their offense will not be able to keep up. Honestly, I will not be surprised if Clemson makes this a rout if they come out ahead in the turnover margin, but being that anything can happen in an opener, I will be a little more conservative.

 

Clemson makes a statement to America that Dabo is back and shoves Brian Kelly’s “Death Valley, Jr.” comments where the sun don’t shine. His head might literally explode during the post-game press conference, and no water bottle will be safe.

 

The prowl toward an 8th College Football Playoff and 4th national title begins…

 

CLEMSON    34        LSU    24