WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.1 CLEMSON vs. NO.11 TEXAS A&M
- 2019-09-06 14:22:15
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Welcome to another edition of What We Are Hearing!
What a start to the Tigers’ national title defense last
week! Travis Etienne announced his Heisman campaign with authority, rushing for
205 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 12 carries! His first TD went for 90 yards,
tying a Clemson record. It was a career record in yardage, his second career 200-yard
game and his fourth 3-touchdown game. The Tigers’ offense racked up 632 total
yards, and the defense wasn’t too shabby either! They allowed just 14 points
and 294 total yards, recording 3 sacks and 3 turnovers. Special teams chipped
in a fourth turnover, and first-year starting place kicker B.T. Potter nailed
his only field goal attempt from 51-yards, which was longer than any made by
Greg Huegel in his career as four-year starter. With the 52-14 win, Dabo passed
the legendary Bobby Bowden for best ACC win percentage (.814) in history!
The season opener is out of the way now, and it’s time for
big-boy football, as the top-ranked Defending Champs welcome No.11/12 Texas A&M
to Death Valley. It will be the most talented team the Tigers face until the
College Football Playoff, and we all remember what a dog fight last year’s
meeting turned into late in the game. Many people, however, only recall the final
score and the fact that the Aggies had a chance to tie the game in the final
minute with a 2-point conversion. In actuality, the game was never very close
until the last few minutes. The Aggies were never tied or in the lead past the first
quarter, and the Tigers had opportunities to blow the game open if not for
several mistakes, like a fumbled snap on the goal line resulting in no points.
It was also as hostile an environment as could be, at night with over 100,000
fans after hosting ESPN College GameDay, and the Tigers split time at
quarterback. That being said, this A&M team looks to be stronger in many
ways, and has a full season with Jimbo Fisher’s offense and Mike Elko’s defense.
They’ve lost a couple key players on offense but were dominant on both sides of
the ball last week, and quarterback Kellen Mond was very sharp. It’s another big-time
ACC vs. SEC matchup, and Death Valley is gonna be rocking!
On a personal note, my brother, sister and I all graduated from Clemson, and our
three cousins and uncle all graduated from A&M, so there are serious
bragging rights on the line within my family. Beyond my own family, the
similarities between these two schools and football programs have always
resonated with me. Both are land grant schools that were founded as military
and agricultural colleges in the late 1800’s and produced the most World War II
officers of any school outside of the service academies. A&M’s football
program is in its 125th season—one more than Clemson—and the two
programs are neck-and-neck in terms of success on the field. Clemson has
exactly 3 more wins all-time, a slightly better win percentage (.614 to .601)
and two more AP national titles (Aggies’ only one was in 1939, three years
after the AP Poll was created), but the Aggies have a slight edge in NFL Draft
picks and NFL first-rounders. A&M has two Heisman winners, and Clemson is
still seeking its first, having been robbed three times. I attended both games between
the Tigers and Aggies in 2004 and 2005. The former was Dabo Swinney’s second
year on the staff, and it was a tough upset loss for Tommy Bowden, Charlie
Whitehurst and company, who were ranked No.16 at the time against the unranked
Aggies in College Station. The Tigers got the last laugh, though. In his first
Clemson game as a true freshman, James Davis rushed for over 100 yards, and Jad
Dean made 6 field goals, including the game-winner as time expired. The only
touchdown of the game for the Tigers came on a Chansi Stuckey punt return. We’ll
see if the Tigers can make it three in a row against the Aggies!
MISCELLANEOUS
Clemson trails 3-2 all-time versus Texas A&M, but the
Tigers have won the last two meetings….Clemson has won 8 of its last 9 games
versus SEC teams….Tigers are going for 17th straight win, tying the
program record from 2014-15….Clemson has not lost a game before October since
2014….Clemson has won 11 straight games by 20 points or more. One more will tie
last year’s Alabama team for the longest streak ever…Clemson has had a positive
turnover margin for 4 straight games, the longest streak since 2013.… With the
win over Tech last week, Clemson has won its last 10 straight games featured by
ESPN College GameDay regardless of home, away or neutral…Clemson is 26-3 in its
last 29 night games. Two of the three losses were to Alabama, and the third was
at Syracuse without a starting QB or starting kicker…Clemson and Alabama are
tied for the most consecutive weeks in the AP Top 10 at 61 straight weeks.
Georgia is 3rd at 30 weeks…Dabo is now 10-1 in season openers,
losing only at UGA in 2014…Clemson has won 16 straight in Death Valley going
back to the last-second loss to Pitt in 2016. Prior to that, the Tigers won 21
straight….
TEXAS A&M SYNOPSIS
The Aggies, of course, are in their second season under
Jimbo Fisher, who is as familiar as anyone with Dabo, Venables and Clemson. He
even went head-to-head with Venables while he was the Oklahoma Defensive
Coordinator before moving to Clemson—once while Fisher was at LSU under Nick
Saban and twice while at FSU. So it shouldn’t have surprised so many that the
Aggies made some adjustments in the second half last season that enabled them
to get back in the game offensively, putting up 23 points after just 3 points
in the first half. Of course, the Aggies also benefited from some spectacular—perhaps
lucky in some cases—catches and some dropped interceptions by the Tigers.
The Aggies lost a couple key offensive weapons from last
season, most notably RB Trayveon Williams, who led the SEC in rushing last
year. However, Williams wasn’t a factor in last year’s meeting in College
Station. The Tigers did a superb job against the run, holding Williams to just
31 yards an no touchdowns on 17 carries. What hurt the Tigers last year was Kellen
Mond, those receivers and the passing game. Mond was 23/40 for 430 yards, 3
touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 33 net yards. Replacing
Williams at running back will be 6’0, 210-pound sophomore Jashaun Corbin (#7),
who rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries last week in their 41-7
win over Texas State. Corbin is not quite as powerful between the tackles as
Williams was, but they like to get him the ball in space with the passing game.
He had 4 catches for 12 yards and another TD last week. Ironically, the Aggies
have a freshman back named Spiller, who wears #28! That will be odd for Clemson
fans to see on Saturday. The 6’1, 220-pound Isaiah Spiller averaged over 15
yards per carry, going for 106 total. They also have a junior corner named
Renfro (who does not wear #13), but he was suspended for the opener as well as
this game.
The Aggies’ other big loss on offense is at tight end, where
Jace Sternberger was one of the best in the nation last year and selected No.75
overall in the NFL Draft. He also did not have one of his best games in last
year’s meeting, failing to find the end zone, but he did have two catches for
48 yards. More importantly, his absence will likely be felt from a blocking
standpoint. The tight end always figures prominently in Jimbo Fisher’s pro-style
offense, and he will have to rely on a couple of young, inexperienced tight
ends this year. Sophomore Glenn Beal (#86) is 6’5 and 265 pounds. He had just
two catches for 10 yards last week after appearing in 8 games without a
reception last season. They have a talented freshman in 6’5, 260-pound Jalen
Wydermeyer (#85), who had one catch for 9 yards last week.
Ultimately, though, the Aggies will go as far as QB Kellen
Mond takes them. The junior had his coming out party against the Tigers last
year, playing like a Heisman winner and rallying his team to nearly tie the
game with a last-minute 2-point conversion. And that, albeit early, was against
the defense that shutout Alabama in the second half, allowing just 16 points in
the National Championship. The Tigers sacked Mond 4 times but easily could have
had a few more if not for Mond’s escapability and finding his hot routes. Jimbo
Fisher has praised Mond highly for his progress since last season, saying that
Mond is light years beyond where he was last season in terms of his
understanding of the offense, decision-making, confidence and accuracy. That
was on full display last week against an admittedly inferior Texas State team.
He made a couple tremendously accurate throws on deep passes last week.
Of course, a big part of Mond’s success in that game last
year was the play of his wide receivers, all four of whom are back. They made
sensational catches all over the field, including a couple of circus catches by
Rogers for touchdowns. Rogers, Davis, Ausbon and Buckley are all dangerous
play-makers for the Aggies, and for the Tigers’ secondary, it’s going to feel a
little similar to what they face in practice every day. It will be a great
barometer for first-year starting corner Derion Kendrick after playing a team
like Georgia Tech that does not have a great passing game. 6’4, 204-pound
Kendrick Rodgers is the biggest of the group and had 7 catches for 120 yards
and the aforementioned 2 touchdowns against the Tigers last year. The battle
between Rogers and lengthy corner A.J. Terrell will be wildly entertaining. 6’2,
194-pound Camron Buckley (#14) had 4 catches for 93 yards in the game last
year. 6’2, 218-pound Jhamon Ausbon (#2) was high school teammates with Mond at
IMG Academy in Florida. He had 3 catches for 61 yards. 6’2, 200-pound Quartney
Davis (#1) had 2 catches for 39 yards. Davis and Ausbon led the way last week
with 85 and 75 yards, respectively, and a touchdown each. They also have a
talented redshirt freshman in Jalen Preston (#5) at 6’2 and 214 pounds. Finally,
be on the lookout for true freshman Kenyon Jackson (#83). He didn’t have a
catch last week, but at 6’6, 200-pounds, he is a matchup problem if Fisher
feels he’s ready for live bullets. Interestingly, Jackson played at Grayson
High in Loganville, GA, the same school as Chase Brice, Wayne Gallman that used
to be coached by Clemson Safeties Coach Mickey Conn. Incidentally, I saw Mond
and Ausbon play in high school when I covered the game between IMG and Grayson.
Mond and Chase Brice went head-to-head, and Mond came away with a 20-point road
win. Clemson LB Mike Jones, Jr. also played for IMG in that game!
One last note of interest about the Aggie offense: you might
recall the name of sophomore RB Cordarrian Richardson (#25). That’s because the
Memphis native was a Clemson commitment in the 2017 recruiting class but didn’t
qualify academically. As a result, Dabo and the staff discovered Travis Etienne
just a couple months before National Signing Day, and the rest is history! That’s
right, the all-time Clemson career leader in yards per carry would not be at
Clemson if not for Richardson’s de-commitment. Amazing how life works!
Richardson wound up at UCF and played on their undefeated “national
championship team” in 2017 before transferring to A&M and sitting out last
season. He had 2 carries for 12 yards last week, but you know he would love to make
an impact on Saturday!
Defensively, the Aggies have come a long way in a short time
under Defensive Coordinator Mike Elko in just over a year. They used to be one
of the worst run defenses in the SEC, and last year they were 3rd in
the nation! Elko made Wake Forest one of the best defensive teams in the nation before spending a year at Notre Dame and then moving to Texas with Fisher, so he is very familiar with the Tigers' offense. The Tigers’ running backs rushed for just 70 yards, although they
only carried the ball 13 times. Kelly Bryant netted 54 yards on the ground. There
are several great matchups to watch in this game, but the Aggies’ front seven
against the Tigers’ running game might be the most intriguing, especially after
Etienne and the Tigers rushed for over 400 yards last week! 6’3, 304-pound junior
DT Justin Madubuike (#52) is a beast on the interior. He had the Aggies’ solitary
sack against the Tigers last year and looked good last week. The Aggies return just
4 starters from last season, and 3 of them are in the secondary, which is
problematic because that was their biggest weakness last year. They were ranked
No.98 in pass defense, having allowed 253.2 yards per game. One of the returning
starters, Renfro, will also miss the game Saturday due to a suspension.
However, the secondary looked pretty darn good last week, coming up with four
interceptions in the opener. We’ll find out how good they really are when they
go against Trevor Lawrence and the best wide receiver group in the nation.
Finally, the Aggies return the best punter in the nation,
Braden Mann, who won the Ray Guy Award last year and had a big game against the
Tigers. He averaged 55 yards on his 5 punts in that game, with a long of 73!
Punters are rarely impactful weapons, but he is certainly one of them. Field
position is probably the second most important statistic behind turnovers, and
Mann can flip it over and over. They have a returning place kicker in sophomore
Seth Small. He was 20-28 last season with a long of 52 yards, so he has a good
leg. He was 2-3 from 50 plus and 3-6 from 40-49 yards. He was 2-2 last week in
the opener. Small supplanted senior kicker Daniel LaCamera last year shortly
after LaCamera was 2-4 in the Clemson game, including a chip-shot miss.
Jimbo Fisher’s press conference from earlier in the week is
below. He talks about what a challenge Clemson will be and what a great environment
Death Valley is. Worth a listen!
CLEMSON STATUS
Although the Tigers escaped College Station with a win last
year, it seems like they feel they have unfinished business with the Aggies—especially
on the defensive side. Starting safety K’Von Wallace told us that was
definitely the case for him personally on Monday. Remember, it was Wallace who
made the game-saving tackle at the goal line in the 4th quarter, and
he also made the interception on the 2-point conversion attempt to seal it, but
he also dropped a couple of interceptions, including one that tipped into the
hands of Kendrick Rogers for the Aggies’ last touchdown. I expect to see the
defense come out with a chip on its shoulder, looking to make a statement. Of
course, motivation and emotion can only get you so far, and it mostly comes
down to execution. In that regard, the inexperienced defensive front has an
opportunity to prove that there is little or no drop-off from last year’s elite
group. They were outstanding for the most part against an overmatched Georgia
Tech team, but this will be another animal on Saturday.
The biggest question mark heading into the game will be
whether we see slot receiver and punt returner Amari Rodgers make his 2019 debut.
Rodgers, of course, tore his ACL back in March and is way ahead of schedule
with his rehab. Interestingly, I asked Dabo a week before the opener if there
was any chance Amari might play against A&M. Dabo said there was "no
chance” and that he should be back by late September or early October. However,
Dabo was asked again during our Sunday evening teleconference, and he said that
it was a possibility. My hunch is that they will not risk playing Amari early,
but if the game is tight at halftime, we could see him in the second half. Or
he might come in early if Derion Kendrick muffs a punt. Rodgers was the
starting punt returner all of last season. However, if the Tigers have a
two-touchdown lead or more for most of the game—as was the case last year—why risk
playing Rodgers? Save him another week for a tough road game at Syracuse. We
shall see. Diondre Overton will likely start at slot for the second straight
week. He had just one catch for 3 yards last week but made a terrific touchdown
catch from Kelly Bryant in College Station last year, and that proved to be the
difference in the game.
PREDICTION
This will be a fascinating chess match to watch between
offensive guru Jimbo Fisher and Brent Venables, who befuddled Alabama in the
championship last January. Again, Jimbo knows Venables as well as anyone, so it
will be interesting to see if Venables can come up with some wrinkles that will
catch Fisher off guard and vice-versa. I don’t expect the crowd to adversely
affect Mond and his veteran receivers too much. They have been in plenty of
similar environments in the SEC. However, it could be a factor for the young
tight ends and running backs for the Aggies, not to mention starting freshman right
guard Kenyon Green (#55). At 6’4, 330 pounds, he is going to be a great one in
years to come, but you never know how a freshman will handle his first big game
in an environment like Death Valley.
Turnovers and field position are always huge factors, but
they could be particularly important in this one. The Tigers have won the
turnover margin for four straight games going back to last season. That hasn’t
always been the case, often times in recent years winning in spite of—not because
of—turnovers. The Tigers recovered two fumbles—and should have had two or three
interceptions—last season at A&M and did not turn the ball over. One of
those turnovers was with the Aggies’ backup quarterback in the game after Mond
lost his helmet. The Tigers came up with 4 turnovers last week, but they also gave
the ball away 3 times, and all by their two Heisman candidates. We’re not used
to seeing Etienne cough up the football or Trevor Lawrence throw interceptions.
He had just 4 all of last season, and one of those was a fluke off the back of
Gage Cervenka’s helmet in the fourth game at Georgia Tech. To be fair, Trevor’s
second interception was a throw-away with time running out before halftime. He
simply left the ball too far in play instead of throwing it out of bounds. On
the first pick, the corner made a great read on a screen and jumped the route.
I expect Trevor to learn from that and not make the same mistake again. Hopefully,
the Tigers will play a much cleaner game on Saturday and have gotten those
mistakes out of their system!
In the final analysis, I believe the Tigers are too
explosive, have too many weapons and are too balanced for the Aggies to hang
with them for 4 quarters. If they load the box to stop the run, Trevor can pick
apart their secondary. If they try to double Tee Higgins or Justyn Ross, the
other will be left on an island with his corner for a one-on-one, and that usually
favors the Tigers, at it did on Tee’s 62-yard TD last week. The Aggies have
great receivers too, but without Trayveon Williams, I like the Tigers’ chances of
stopping the run without heavy support from the back seven. The Tigers will
need to employ a spy at the second level to prevent Mond from scrambling when
the pocket breaks down, and Muse will need to be sound in his eye discipline so
he doesn’t get beat over the top if he cheats up for run support. The Tigers
have won 11 straight games by 20 points or more and need just one more to tie
Alabama for the most ever. Dabo wouldn’t talk about that, but don’t think for a
minute that it’s not in the back of his mind. It will be interesting to see
what he does if the Tigers have the ball with a couple minutes left and a 13-19
point win. Ordinarily, he would sit on the ball and run the clock out, but I
wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to score and keep that streak going. This
game might be close early, but the Tigers will be too much for the Aggies. Make
it 9 out of the last 10 for the Tigers over the SEC. They tie the school record with their 17th straight win--the nation's longest active win streak--and win by just enough to keep the 20-point win streak alive with a chance to make history at Syracuse!
The Prowl toward a 5th consecutive ACC Title, a 5th
consecutive CFP appearance and a 4th National Title continues……
CLEMSON 48 Texas A&M 28
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