WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.1 CLEMSON AT WAKE FOREST
- 2020-09-11 17:54:13
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Welcome to the 2020 Season Opener edition of What We Are
Hearing!
Well, we finally made it through the wilderness, and after
the longest, most stressful and uncertain off-season in history, it looks like the
No.1 Tigers will kick off the season on Saturday night at Wake Forest. You may
recall that I predicted all the way back in March that we would have a college football
season one way or another, and I reiterated that again in July when all the
pessimists and nay-sayers in the media were certain the season would never take
place. Well, they may have been right as far as the Big Ten and Pac-12 are
concerned, but the ACC, SEC and Big 12 are forging ahead into the fray as I
expected all along. And no one—other than the coaches and players—is more
relieved to have a season than Clemson fans because they know what’s at stake.
The Tigers are ranked No.1 in both the AP and Coaches’ Preseason Polls for the
second straight year. That means Dabo Swinney has joined Notre Dame legend
Frank Leahy and Nick Saban as the only coaches in history to have their teams
ranked No.1 in six consecutive seasons! It also means the Tigers have are the
favorites—especially with Ohio State out of the picture—to make the National
Championship Game for an unprecedented 5th time in 6 years and win a
3rd national title in the last 5 years. If the Tigers finish in the
top 2 again, they will join Miami as the only programs in history to do so in 5
of 6 seasons. That’s right, not even Alabama or Notre Dame have done that! So it
would have been tragic—pardon the use of the word in these times—to Clemson
partisans if the 2020 season turned out to be nothing but a rumor.
As I also predicted as soon as the Big Ten and Pac-12 made
their announcements to play conference-only schedules, Notre Dame—after over
130 years of stubbornness as a football independent—finally acquiesced and
joined the ACC for the 2020 season. They really had no choice unless they
wanted to forfeit the entire season, and I proposed that ACC Commissioner John
Swofford should have used the opportunity and leverage to force the Irish to join
the league permanently. He had Notre Dame over a barrel with the entire season
and millions of dollars at stake, but he ended up letting the Irish off the
hook with no further obligations after the 2020 season. Therefore, I expect
Notre Dame will resume their independence in 2021. But who knows? Perhaps the
excitement of playing as a full-time member of a conference and an opportunity
for a conference championship game will make them see the light. The Tigers, of
course, will travel to South Bend for the first time since the ‘70’s for a likely
top-10 showdown in November, and they might have to play the Irish again in
Charlotte and/or the College Football Playoff. With only 3 Power Five
conferences, it’s very conceivable that both Clemson and Notre Dame could make the
CFP if they each go 12-1. Incidentally, Notre Dame opens its season at home
against Duke, led by Clemson graduate QB transfer Chase Brice in his first
career start. The Irish are favored by 20, but I expect it to be closer and
wouldn’t be surprised if ‘ole David Cutcliffe and company pull off the upset.
Before I get into the weeds on Saturday night’s matchup, I
want to point out that this season is not just different for the players and
coaches but for the media as well. Due to an abundance of caution from all the
schools in the ACC, media coverage will be very different this season. You have
already seen several games on television that have been called by commentators
off-site or from their homes, and I will be taking this same approach for the
Wake game and perhaps other road games as well. Since the media is being
restricted to the press box with no field access, and all post-game interviews
are being conducted online via Zoom, I’ve decided I can bring you better
coverage from the safety of my own home without having to worry about travel
and being kicked out of the press box an hour after the game ends. I will play
it by ear this season, depending on media policies—which will vary from school
to school—and I hope to be able to make my first-ever trip to South Bend, but
for now, I’ll be watching Clemson on television Saturday night for the first
time since 2014! As I have done in the past, I will post live play-by-play in The
Valley and will provide post-game interviews, stats and notes as well as photos.
No media outlets—even national ones—are being permitted to shoot photography
during ACC games this season, which is overkill in my opinion with all the
space there is and the effectiveness of masks, but I will be able to provide
you with photos taken by the designated pool photographer at each game. I would
love for everything to be normal this season, but I’m just grateful that we will
be able to watch the Tigers play, and I’ll continue to bring you the very best
insight and coverage right here!
Onto the season opener! ESPN College GameDay will be in
Winston-Salem for the first time ever, which is ironic since there will be no
fans allowed at the GameDay set or in the stadium for the game. It will be the
24th time Clemson has been featured by the pre-game show, and the
Tigers had won a nation-long 11 straight appearances before losing to LSU in
the National Championship Game.
MISCELLANEOUS
Saturday kicks off the 125th season of Clemson
Football….The Tigers look to win at least 10 games for the 10th
straight year under Dabo Swinney, joining Alabama and Florida State as the only
programs ever to do so….Clemson is the only program to have won 5 consecutive
outright ACC titles and the only program in the nation to win 5 consecutive
conference championship games….At 69-5, Clemson has the best record in the
nation over the last 5 years; 3 wins better than Alabama and 8 wins better than
Ohio State. Clemson has the second-most wins since 2011 behind Alabama….Clemson
has the most wins versus Power Five opponents since 2013; 7 more than Ohio State
and 8 more than Alabama….Dabo now has the nation’s best active win percentage at
.807. Nick Saban’s is .788. Dabo also holds the best all-time ACC win
percentage at .828. Bobby Bowden’s was .813….Clemson and Alabama are tied for
the most consecutive weeks in the AP Top 10 at 77 weeks. That is the fifth-longest
streak all-time, 2 weeks behind USC and 4 weeks behind Florida for 3rd
all-time. Clemson has been ranked in the AP Top 5 for 40 consecutive weeks, by
far the longest active streak. Next is Ohio State at 14 and Georgia at 7.
Clemson’s run of 5 straight top-5 finishes is tied for the sixth-longest streak
all-time. One more, and the Tigers will tie Oklahoma; two more and they will
tie three other schools for the second-longest. FSU has the record at 14
straight top-5 finishes…..Clemson is 67-17-1 all-time versus Wake Forest, and
the Tigers have won 11 straight. Their last loss to the Deacons was on a
Thursday night in 2008, after which Tommy Bowden was fired and Dabo Swinney was
named Interim Head Coach….The only team Clemson has beaten more times than Wake
is South Carolina….This will be Wake’s first season opener against an ACC
opponent since 2004, when the Deacs lost to Clemson in overtime….Wake has not
beaten a top-5 team since Tennessee in the 1940’s….Clemson and Wake are the
only two ACC programs with winning records in each of the last 4 years….Clemson
has won 12 straight true road games, tying the school record from 2015-2017….Clemson
has won 22 straight games against ACC opponents, a school record….Clemson has
won 42 straight Saturday games, the longest active streak in the nation and
second-longest ever….Clemson and Alabama are tied for the most consecutive
12-win seasons (5) since Penn in 1892. One more would move Clemson ahead of Alabama,
which won 11 games last season…Famous Wake alumni include Arnold Palmer, Tim
Duncan, Chris Paul, Muggsy Bogues, Curtis Strange and actor Carroll O’Connor….
WAKE SYNOPSIS
The Deacs will look completely different on offense this
season, particularly because of the loss of QB Jamie Newman, who transferred to
Georgia and recently decided to opt out for the NFL Draft. Newman was an
outstanding duel-threat quarterback last season and a big reason Wake started
the season 7-1. Another monumental loss was All-ACC WR Sage Surratt, who also
opted out this season for the NFL Draft. In all, the Deacs return just two
starters on offense, both offensive linemen.
Their new starting QB is no rookie, however. Sam Hartman,
who attended high school in South Carolina, was Wake’s starter as a freshman in
2018 and showed uncommon poise. He was the first true freshman QB to start a
season opener in Wake history and went 4-4 before suffering a broken leg against
Syracuse, which opened the door for Newman. Hartman passed for almost 2,000
yards before his injury. After a rocky start, he threw 10 TD passes against 3
interceptions in his final 5 games. He played in just 4 games last season
behind Newman, throwing for 800 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
The attrition on offense included all of the Deacs’ biggest
play-makers, including the aforementioned Surratt, WR Kendall Hinton, WR Scotty
Washington, TE Jack Freudenthal and leading rusher Cade Carney. Newman was the
second-leading rusher on the team. In all, Wake probably lost more offensive
production from 2019 than any other team in the nation. 5’10, 206-pound
sophomore Kenneth Walker (#9) was the third-leading rusher with 579 yards and 4
touchdowns last season, averaging an impressive 5.9 yards per carry last season
as a freshman. He will be the starter in the backfield on Saturday along with 5’10,
201-pound redshirt junior Christian Beal-Smith (#26), who rushed for 304 yards
and 2 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
The Deacs have plenty of experience on defense, returning 9
starters from last year’s group. They are led by 6’5, 285-pound DE Carlos “Boogie”
Basham (#9). The redshirt senior speed rusher had 11 sacks and 18
tackles-for-loss in 2019, and he is a preseason second-team All-American. The
matchup between Basham and Jackson Carman and/or Jordan McFadden will be fun to
watch! On the back end, look out for free safety Luke Masterson (#12). The 6’2,
220-pound redshirt senior is a versatile athlete who has played linebacker in
the past, so he loves contact.
Dave Clawson loves to go warp speed on offense, and the
Deacs are usually among the nation’s leaders in fewest seconds between plays. Sam
Hartman is in his third year in this offense, so he won’t be rattled. The big
question is: who will he throw the ball to and who will make plays? Amazingly,
the Deacs’ leading returning WR is 6’2, 198-pound redshirt freshman Donavon
Greene (#7), who only played in 4 games last season. He had 13 catches for 249
yards and 2 touchdowns. They have a big receiver in 6’5, 212-pound redshirt sophomore
AT Perry (#89), but he only had 4 catches for 62 yards and one touchdown last
season. They also have a grad transfer in 6’4, 206-pound Donald Stewart (#2). It
will be interesting to see if Clawson sticks with his modus operandi and goes high-tempo
on offense despite all the new pieces and inexperience. That can backfire
quickly if you’re unable to get first downs. The fast pace gives the defense
little time to rest on the sideline, so after a few three-and-outs, the defense
can become gassed in a hurry—especially given the Clemson offense they are
dealing with.
Finally, Wake has several players who played high school
ball in South Carolina, including QB Sam Hartman, backup LB AJ Williams (#22)
and returning starting place kicker Nick Sciba, a very reliable junior. Sciba
was 24-25 last season and 5-6 from 40-49. He did not attempt any field goals from
50 or longer, and he was perfect on PAT’s.
CLEMSON STATUS
The Tigers are in great shape from a physical and mental
standpoint. With marquee players opting out all over the country, it’s
remarkable that the Tigers didn’t have a single defector. That’s a testament to
the character of the players on this team, the leadership, team chemistry and the
coaching staff. It also says something about what this team has in front of it and
wants to accomplish. That loss to LSU ending a 29-game win streak left a bitter
taste in their mouths, and they want to climb back to the top of the mountain.
It’s why Travis Etienne decided to make the NFL wait. Trevor Lawrence could
have easily opted out, and he’d be a lock for the No.1 pick in the NFL Draft
with a fortune waiting. But that’s not what he’s all about. This team has been
through as much as any team in history between the pandemic, all the social
unrest and the uncertainty of whether they will see the football field in 2020,
but they have gone about their business with the utmost maturity, grace and
professionalism. They are an example to the rest of the student body. The football
team didn’t have a single positive COVID test upon returning from a 3-day break
following August camp, and that speaks to their determination, vigilance and
desire to play.
Everyone knows the offensive and defensive superlatives of
this team, so I won’t repeat them all here. Trev & Trav is all one needs to
say. Trevor Lawrence was voted Preseason ACC Player of the Year, ahead
of the two-time reigning POY Travis Etienne, who finished second in the voting.
If Travis should win the award again this year, he will be the first-ever
three-time recipient and the only Power Five player other than Herschel Walker
to do so. The numbers Etienne has put up are staggering—especially when you
consider that he has only played 2-3 quarters of games for the majority of his
career. His 7.8 career yards per carry is tied for 3rd all-time,
well ahead of Walker’s.
We know what we’re going to get out of Trev & Trav. The
two main questions offensively are at wide receiver and on the offensive line.
After losing Higgins to the NFL and Ross to an off-season neck surgery, the
Tigers will have to replace that production with veteran Amari Rodgers at the
slot and veteran Cornell Powell on the outside along with sophomores Joseph
Ngata and Frank Ladson. All of them are plenty talented enough to do just that
and then some, and look out for the new No.13! Redshirt freshman WR Brannon
Spector is going to be star. You can also expect true freshman EJ Williams to
make a splash like Ross did as a freshman. In fact, Williams was a high school
teammate of Ross in Alabama, and he is even faster than his mentor. True
freshman Ajou Ajou from Canada has caught Dabo’s eye in camp and has a
tremendous upside, but he is probably more of a project than Williams. Speaking
of freshmen, I can’t wait to see the new “Thunder & Lightning,” as Dabo has
called them, in action for the first time! Freshman RB Kobe Pace (#14) is a
power runner, and Demarkcus Bowman (#1) can fly. I didn’t think I’d ever hear
Dabo compare a freshman back to CJ Spiller, but that’s exactly what he did!
Incidentally, CJ is now officially on the staff as grad assistant, so he gets
to coach Bowman and the other backs!
As for the offensive line, the starting group should be formidable
despite replacing 4 starters. The reports are that they have taken on OG Matt
Bockhorst’s mean mentality and have developed great chemistry and
communication. Cade Stewart will be the starter at center and is expected to
pick up right where Pollard left off. The Tigers have had a great run at the
position from Guillermo to Falcinelli to Pollard and now Stewart. OT Jordan
McFadden will make his first start opposite returning starter and preseason ACC
first-teamer Jackson Carman, and McFadden will be playing on Sundays in a
couple years. OG Will Putnam rounds out the starting five. I like the Ohio
connection they have on the left side of the line with Carman and Bockhorst!
The second group, however, is very talented but very young and will be a
work-in-progress. Blake Vinson is the most experienced of the group, and the
Tigers have 3 freshmen in the two-deep!
Personally, I think the one thing I might be the most
excited about seeing—other than the freshmen making their debut—is how Dabo and
Tony Elliott use the tight end on Saturday night. That is the one element of
this offense that has been lacking over the last couple seasons. The tight end
hasn’t figured prominently in the Tigers’ passing attack since Jordan Leggett
in 2016. It probably would have last year if not for Braden Galloway’s
suspension. He is a matchup nightmare, and I can’t wait to see him in action
along with sophomores Davis Allen and Jaelyn Lay.
Finally, which backup quarterback will see the field first,
and which one will shine? According to Dabo, it has been a very tight race
between redshirt freshman Taisun Phommachanh and true frosh DJ Uiagalelei (the
name battle alone leaves one’s head spinning). I suspect Taisun will run out
there first because of his seniority, but they will probably get about the same
number of possessions. The competition will probably be ongoing this season,
and it will be fun to see which one performs best on Saturday night!
The Tigers’ defense, led by Brent Venables, is going to be
nasty once again! They had a very young, inexperienced front four last season, but
they finished 12th in sacks, 1st in three-and-outs and
arguably had the best pass defense in the nation. This season, it’s all about the
front four. With just about everyone back, except for DE Xavier Thomas, who will
be ready to play at some point in the season, the Tigers have added four
uber-talented defensive linemen from their No.1 recruiting class. In fact, true
freshman DT Bryan Bresee was named a co-starter along with veterans Nyles
Pinckney and Jordan McFadden, so that gives you and idea how special he is. With
those guys and Tyler Davis in the middle book-ended by Henry, Foster, Mascol
and true freshman Myles Murphy, who wowed in camp, I expect to see a pass rush
like we saw in 2018 from the Power Rangers. Look out for fellow freshmen
Demonte Capehart at DT and Tre Williams at DE as well!
On the back end, the Tigers lost 3 of their top 4 safeties
from last season, but they are super talented across the board in the secondary.
Nolan Turner and Landen Zanders will make their first start at safety, and
returning starter Derion Kendrick should lock down receivers all season. Mario
Goodrich and LeAnthony Williams will split time at corner with Kendrick, and
look out for true freshman Malcolm Greene, who impressed in camp.
Many will wonder how the Tigers will replace a generational
talent like Isaiah Simmons at the nickel/linebacker position, and the eyes will
be on Mike Jones, Jr. making his first career start. Jones come a long way, and
I believe he is up to the challenge. When Brent Venables is singing your
praises, you’ve done something. I believe MLB James Skalski, if he stays
healthy, will have an All-American, Butkus Finalist type season. Veteran Baylon
Spector is solid at the WLB position as well.
Venables and the Tigers have led the nation in sacks,
tackles-for-loss and three-and-outs over the last 7 years, and they have
allowed the fewest points over the last 4 years (only 1.5 points behind Alabama
for the fewest over the last 6 years). It’s going to be another dominant season
for the Clemson D!
Finally, at special teams, the Tigers are in great shape
with veteran Will Spiers on punts and BT Potter on kicks. Potter was remarkably
accurate and consistent all through August, so hopefully he will carry that
into the season. He is also a weapon on kickoffs with a superb touchback rate.
From an injury standpoint, the Tigers lost tight end Luke Price for the season,
which is a shame because he did a great job blocking last season after
transitioning to the position from linebacker. DT Etinosa Reuben has been recovering
from a wrist injury and may not play on Saturday. Other than that, the Tigers are
in great shape, and we should get Dabo’s final availability list early Saturday
after Friday’s COVID test results are in.
Click below for my preseason outlook on the offense and defense!
PREDICTION
In the last two meetings, the Tigers have bested the Deacs
52-3 and 62-3, and those were probably better Wake Forest teams and possibly lesser
Clemson teams, as hard as that is to wrap your head around. The line on the
game is Clemson by 33 points, but I’ve never concerned myself with the odds makers
when it comes to Clemson, and I usually do better with my score predictions than
Vegas does. Of course, I ought to as much as I study this team. Put simply,
Wake is out-manned as much as they ever have been, and I don’t know how they
are going to replace all that production they lost on offense. That means
three-and-outs and a lot of punts, and if they stick with their fast tempo, it
means that defense—which already might not be in the best condition due to the
pandemic—will be completely gassed by halftime. Sure, they have a veteran group
back from last season, but remember, the Tigers hung 52 on them last season. Basham
is an NFL talent, but he won’t be enough to make a difference—especially with a
savvy quarterback like Lawrence. And Wake won’t even have the benefit of fans
in the stands to energize them when they are gasping for air! I expect the game
to be well in hand by halftime, and Trev & Trav will see little of the
field in the 2nd half. Dabo will clear his bench, and they will continue
to build the lead. A new win streak begins!
The Prowl toward a 6th consecutive ACC Title, 6th
consecutive College Football Playoff, 3rd consecutive National
Championship Game and 4th National Title begins…..
CLEMSON 55 Wake Forest 6
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