WHAT WE ARE HEARING: SUGAR BOWL PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.2 CLEMSON vs. NO.3 OHIO STATE
- 2021-01-01 03:20:11
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Happy New Year, and welcome to the Sugar Bowl edition of
What We Are Hearing!
Well, here we are again. For an unprecedented sixth straight
year, the Tigers have made the College Football Playoff—something even Alabama
hasn’t been able to accomplish. The Tigers got here, of course, by virtue of their
34-10 annihilation of Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game. Many in the
media thought that the 10.5 Vegas odds favoring the Tigers was too high, but
not me. I predicted a 41-20 win for the Tigers and was still 3 points under the
margin of victory. When the Tigers lost that heartbreaker in double-overtime at
South Bend in early November, I said that night that a full-strength Clemson
team would have won by 30, and the Tigers proved me right. If not for Trevor Lawrence
contracting COVID or several other players missing the game due to injuries,
the Tigers would still be ranked No.1 and undefeated heading into the playoff. Their
average margin of victory with Trevor Lawrence as the starter this season is 33.6
points per game. Notre Dame came to Charlotte highly motivated, not only to earn
a playoff spot and win their first-ever conference title, but to prove to the
world that the win over the Tigers in South Bend was no fluke. Well, they got a
taste of what Clemson looks like near full strength, and the Irish were utterly
dominated, just like they were two years ago in the Cotton Bowl. Incidentally,
the Tigers were still missing WR’s Frank Ladson and Joseph Ngata, as well as DE
Xavier Thomas, who was coming on strong with 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble in
his last 96 snaps. For my recap of the ACC Championship, photos, post-game
interviews, highlights and more, click HERE. It was also the Tigers’ 10th
win of the season, so Clemson has joined FSU and Alabama as the only programs
in history to win at least 10 games in 10 straight seasons! A feat that’s even
more remarkable this year, as the Tigers played 2 less regular season games
than they normally do and had to start a true freshman quarterback in two of
them, due to COVID. I’m not sure FSU would have been able to put together its
record 14 straight 10-win seasons or Alabama either, if they had to deal with similar
circumstances.
The Tigers didn’t have as much time to celebrate the ACC
Championship as usual this year, with Christmas just days away and a CFP rematch
with Ohio State less than 2 weeks away. In a season that has been anything but
normal, it’s one more oddity that there is such little time before the playoff,
but perhaps that’s a good thing, as well as the Tigers played against Notre
Dame. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have played just 6 games—5 less than the
Tigers—and did not look like a playoff team in their Big Ten Championship Game
against Northwestern. The Buckeyes trailed until late in the 3rd quarter
and then pulled away for the 22-10 win. To be fair, Ohio State was missing
about 20 players due to COVID, including its biggest play-maker, WR Chris Olave.
It just so happens that Olave was the receiver who broke off his route, leading
to Nolan Turner’s game-sealing interception in the Fiesta Bowl last season.
Olave is expected to play in the Sugar Bowl, thanks to the Big Ten breaking its
own rule (again), lowering the quarantine period from 21 days to 17 days. Guess
who else from Ohio State will be looking for some payback. CB Shaun Wade was
the Buckeye infamously ejected for targeting on Trevor Lawrence in the Fiesta
Bowl, which sparked the Tigers’ comeback from 16-0 to win 29-23. Wade has been
the leader of the secondary and the defense all season, and he can’t wait to get
another shot at the Tigers for revenge. Then, there is Justin Fields, who had
just one interception all season last year before throwing two against the Tigers,
including the aforementioned one on the final drive that effectively ended the
game. Fields and Trevor Lawrence have been competing with each other directly
or indirectly since their high school days in Georgia. They competed against
each other in elite quarterback camps and took turns occupying the top two spots
in the national recruiting rankings. Ironically, if Fields had stayed at UGA,
we may have never seen them go head-to-head in college, even though Clemson and
Georgia open the 2021 season against each other in Charlotte. As fate would
have it, though, we now get a rematch of Lawrence vs. Fields with the ultimate
prize at stake!
The Tigers, of course, are 4-0 all-time against Ohio State,
all in big bowl games, going back to Danny Ford beating Woody Hayes in the
Gator Bowl, the last game Woody would ever coach after punching Clemson’s Charlie
Bauman at the end of the game. Dabo is 3-0 against the Buckeyes since 2013,
including a 31-0 CFP Fiesta Bowl win over Urban Meyer, his only career shutout.
Last year’s thrilling win over Ryan Day and the Buckeyes was also in the Fiesta
Bowl, so this will be the teams’ first meeting in the Sugar Bowl. Of course, we
all know that the Tigers have had bad luck in New Orleans at the Super Dome.
Trevor Lawrence is 34-1 as a starter at Clemson, and his only bad game in his
college career was in that building against LSU last January. The Tigers also
lost 24-6 to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl after the 2017 season, although that was
a 10-6 game in the 4th quarter before the Tigers’ defense ran out of
gas. Ironically, Dabo won his 1992 national title as a player in the Super Dome
with Alabama, beating Miami, but New Orleans hasn’t been kind to the Tigers. In
fact, they also lost the Sugar Bowl following the 1958 season to LSU 7-0 (at
Tulane Stadium), so they are 0-3 all-time in New Orleans post-season games. There
are story lines galore for this one! Without further ado, let’s dive into the
rematch with a few photos from last year's instant classic….
MISCELLANEOUS
This is the 125th season of Clemson
Football….The Tigers have won at least 10 games for the 10th straight
year under Dabo Swinney, joining Alabama and Florida State as the only programs
ever to do so….Clemson is the only program to have won 6 consecutive outright
ACC titles and the only program in college football history to win 6
consecutive conference championship games…. At 78-6, Clemson has the best record
in the nation since 2015; 3 wins better than Alabama and 12 wins better than
Ohio State. Clemson is 3 wins behind Alabama for the most wins since
2011….Clemson has the most wins versus Power Five opponents since 2013; 10 more
than Ohio State and 7 more than Alabama….Dabo now has the nation’s best active
win percentage at .811. Nick Saban’s is .792. Dabo also holds the best all-time
win percentage in ACC games at .830. Bobby Bowden’s was .813. Dabo’s overall
.811 win percentage is 7th all-time among head coaches that
coached at least 150 games. Urban Meyer’s .854 win percentage is atop that
list, followed by Switzer, Osborne, Yost, Neyland and Wilkinson….Only 6 times
has a team won 12 or more games in a season against Power Five opponents.
Clemson, FSU and LSU are the only programs to have done it, and 4 of the 6
times were by Clemson, which remains the only program ever to win 13 games
against Power Five opponents in one season, accomplished in 2018. The Tigers
could have won 12 games against Power Five opponents this season if not for FSU
using COVID to cancel its game with Clemson or the SEC disallowing ACC rivalry
games this season…..Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban are the only head coaches in
history to reach No.1 in the AP Poll in 6 consecutive seasons….Clemson has
played in the 14th most games (22) as AP No.1….Dabo is 17th all-time
for most games (21) coached as AP No.1, passing Jim Tressel, Steve Spurrier and
Ara Parseghian. He is one game behind Urban Meyer and Lou Holtz for a tie at 13th on
the list….Clemson and Alabama are tied for the most consecutive weeks in the AP
Top 10 at 92 weeks, the third-longest streak all-time. Florida has the
next-longest active streak at just 21 weeks….Clemson has been ranked in the AP
Top 5 for 55 consecutive weeks, by far the longest active streak and
third-longest streak all-time. The next-longest active streak is Alabama at 16
weeks. Ohio State had 14 consecutive weeks before their exclusion due to the
Big Ten’s season postponement. If Clemson remains in the Top 5 at the end
of the season, which it will, it will pass Miami for the second-longest streak
all-time. If the Tigers remain in the Top 5 from now until the ACC Championship
next season, they will pass Alabama for the longest such streak
all-time….Clemson’s run of 5 straight top-5 finishes is tied for the
sixth-longest streak all-time. After this season, the Tigers will tie Oklahoma;
one more, and they will tie three other schools for the second-longest streak.
FSU has the record at 14 straight top-5 finishes under Bobby Bowden….If Clemson
beats Ohio State and finishes in the top 2 of the AP Poll this season, it will
join Miami as the only programs to finish in the top 2 in 5 of 6 seasons.
Alabama could also join that club if the Tide beat Notre Dame in the playoff….Clemson
has been ranked No.2 a total of 27 times in the AP Poll. That is just one
behind Oregon for 13th-most and 6 behind FSU for 12th-most.
10 more AP Polls at No.2 will put Clemson in the top-10 all-time….Clemson and
Alabama are tied for the most consecutive 12-win seasons (5) since Penn in
1892. One more would move Clemson ahead of Alabama, which won 11 games last
season….Clemson has won 28 straight home games dating back to 2016, the longest
active streak in the nation. Notre Dame has the second-longest active streak at
24, and its all-time record is 28 straight home wins, the same as the Tigers’
current streak. Only 9 fifth-year seniors on the 120-man Clemson roster have
experienced a loss in Death Valley, and on Saturday, the senior class became
the first in Clemson history to never lose a game at home. The Tigers are an
FBS-best 46-1 at home since 2014….Before losing at Notre Dame in November,
Clemson had won 39 straight non-bowl games, passing Nebraska and tying Miami
for second-most all-time. Oklahoma holds the record at 45….Clemson had won 28
straight games against ACC opponents, tying FSU for the second-most all-time.
FSU also holds the record at 29 straight, and the double-overtime loss at
one-time ACC member Notre Dame kept Clemson from tying FSU for the
record….Clemson had won 50 straight Saturday games before the Notre Dame loss,
the longest such streak of all time…..In making the CFP for an unprecedented 6th
straight year, Dabo Swinney joined basketball legend John Wooden as the only
coaches in any sport to make a Final Four playoff 6 years in a row….Against VA Tech,
Trevor Lawrence became the 5th player in ACC history with 100
career touchdowns accounted for, joining Deshaun Watson, Tajh Boyd, Lamar
Jackson and Phillip Rivers….On Senior Day, Trevor Lawrence reached 10,000
career all-purpose yards, passing Charlie Whitehurst for 3rd in
Clemson history behind Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson…..With his touchdown in the
ACC Championship, Travis Etienne tied for 4th on the all-time FBS rushing
TD list….Clemson leads the all-time series against Ohio State 4-0, all in major
bowl games….Clemson remains the only program with a winning record (at least 2
meetings) against Notre Dame (4-2), Oklahoma (3-2) and Ohio State (4-0)….
OHIO STATE SYNOPSIS
As mentioned, the Buckeyes find themselves in uncharted
territory, going into the playoff having played just 6 games, with numerous
players missing their previous game due to COVID. Much has been made about the
Buckeyes’ abbreviated season and whether they belong in the CFP with a 6-0
record. They almost weren’t even allowed to play in the Big Ten Championship
because of the conference’s own foolish rule that it made at the start of the
season, mandating that a team must have played at least 6 games to qualify for
the championship. The conference, of course, reversed its own rule to allow the
Buckeyes to play in the championship and earn a spot in the playoff for the
conference. There has also been much debate about whether Ohio State has an
unfair “freshness” advantage, having played 5 less games than each of the other
teams in the playoff. While there is certainly merit to that hypothesis—there
is no comparison between playing 6 games and the grind of an 11-game schedule—I
have to wonder whether the “freshness” advantage outweighs the advantage that
Clemson, Alabama and Notre Dame have from developing and improving as a team
over the course of a full season. Put it this way: is Clemson a better team now
than it was after 6 games? I believe it definitely is. In fact, it was at that 6-game
mark when the Tigers were plagued with injuries and players with COVID. Remember,
the loss at Notre Dame was the Tigers’ 8th game of the season. In
their 7th game against Boston College, the Tigers were without
Trevor Lawrence due to COVID as well as Tyler Davis, James Skalski and Mike
Jones due to injury. And we all remember how the Tigers gave BC a 14-point
swing on Etienne’s fumble, and they had to pull the game out late. The Tigers’
backups have come a long way since then, so I would argue that Ohio State might
possibly be at a disadvantage due to its abbreviated schedule. We’ll see
if that’s the case, but what we do know is that the Buckeyes have not looked
impressive against quality opponents this season, and they will have several
players coming back from COVID who have not seen game action in over a month.
The Buckeyes are led, of course, by QB Justin Fields, who
was one of the early favorites for the Heisman. He has not been as sharp so far
this season as he was last year. His completion percentage is better than ever
at 72.6% and he has 15 touchdowns in his 6 games this season, but in their two
games against currently ranked teams, Fields has just 2 touchdowns and all 5 of
his interceptions. He’s averaging about 250 passing yards and 45 rushing yards
per game this season. He also has 5 rush TD’s and averages 4.1 yards per carry.
Fields has been sacked 18 times, so 3 per game. In my mind, Fields has all the
pressure on him. I believe he’s been carrying that interception around with him
for the last 12 months and has been dying for revenge ever since. He has all but
said so. The motivation is clearly there, but sometimes the weight of that can
crush a player, even a great player. If he doesn’t get off to a good start or
throws an interception early, it could be curtains for Fields.
RB JK Dobbins was a force against the Tigers last year, as I’m
sure you recall. He had a couple key drops but also had some big runs. Dobbins
has moved on to the NFL, so in the backfield with Fields this time will be Trey
Sermon (#8), the senior transfer from Oklahoma. The 6’1, 215-pound native of
Marietta, GA had by far his best game of the season in his last outing in the
Big Ten Championship against a good Northwestern defense. Sermon rushed for a
whopping 331 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries in that game, averaging 11.4
yards per carry. He had just one TD this season before that game and split
carries pretty evenly with sophomore Master Teague (#33), but Sermon now leads
team with 675 rushing yards. His season average is now 8 yards per carry. At 5’11,
225 pounds, Teague is also very capable. He averages 5 yards per carry and has 6
touchdowns this season, so one per game. He had just 2 carries for 23 yards in
the Big Ten Championship with Sermon having a big game, but Teague rushed for 169
yards and 2 TD’s in the Buckeyes’ only other game against a ranked team, Indiana.
Offensive Coordinator Kevin Wilson (former Indiana Head Coach) and the Buckeyes
don’t throw to the backs very often. Sermon has 8 catches for 34 yards, and
Teague has 4 for 45. Neither has a TD reception this season.
As noted, WR Chris Olave (#2) missed the Big Ten
Championship due to COVID, and he hasn’t played a game in almost a month. His
last appearance was the Michigan State game on December 5, in which he caught
10 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. The 6’1, 188-pound junior also had 2
TD’s against Penn State and 2 against Rutgers. He’s had four 100-yard games out
of five, including 8 catches for 101 yards against a very good Indiana pass
defense. As noted, it was Olave who broke off his route prematurely, which led
to Nolan Turner’s game-ending interception in the end zone in last year’s Fiesta
Bowl. So, like Fields, Olave has been waiting a year to redeem himself and
exact revenge against the Tigers. The Buckeyes’ other big threat in the passing
game is 6’0, 193-pound sophomore Garrett Wilson (#5), who leads the team with 621
yards and is tied with Olave for the team lead in touchdowns with 5. He had a
monster game against that stout Indiana pass defense, catching 7 passes for 169
yards and 2 touchdowns. The good news for the Tigers is that they don’t have a 6’4
or 6’5 receiver or tight end to deal with like they have in so many other
games. Aside from Olave and Wilson, no other player for the Buckeyes has caught
more than 9 passes this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes have a new defensive
coordinator in Kerry Coombs. As most of you know, former Ohio State DC Jeff Hafley
is now the head coach at Boston College, so this will be the first time Coombs
has gone against the Clemson offense, and that is advantage Tigers. I’m sure both
Ryan Day and Hafley have brought Coombs up to seed on the particulars of the
Tigers’ attack, but that’s not the same as having made in-game adjustments against
the Clemson offense once before. However, Coombs did coach the Ohio State
secondary under Urban Meyer against Clemson in the 2013 season Orange Bowl and 2016
season Fiesta Bowl, so he has seen the Tigers up close and personal, but it’s
been a while. Most recently, Coombs was the secondary coach for the Tennessee Titans
for the last 2 years. He coached the secondary for Brian Kelly at Cincy before
taking the job at Ohio State with Urban Meyer. Before he was hired by Brian
Kelly, Coombs spent 23 years coaching in the Ohio high school ranks. Interestingly,
Coombs was hired at Tennessee by Head Coach Mike Vrabel, whose son plays at
Boston College for Jeff Hafley, the man who Coombs replaced at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes lost 3 of their 4 starters in the secondary to
the NFL, including first-round corner Jeff Okudah. The sole returning starter
is the aforementioned Shaun Wade, who was ejected in last year’s meeting for
the targeting on Trevor Lawrence. You can bet he has been hoping for this
rematch as well! He has 2 interceptions this season, including a pick-six. They
also lost, of course, their All-American and Heisman Finalist, DE Chase Young, who
had 16.5 sacks last season. They haven’t had that dominant pass rusher that we’re
accustomed to seeing from Ohio State for the last several years, going back to
the Bosa brothers. Their leading sack man this season is junior DT Tommy Togiai
(#72), who has just 3 sacks. Next on the team is senior DE Jonathon Cooper (#0),
who has 2.5. Quite a difference from 16.5, albeit with more games. The Buckeyes
average 2.83 sacks per game, which is respectable and No.25 nationally, but
they were No.3 nationally in that department last season. The Buckeyes lost
their leading tackler, LB Malik Harrison, from last year, but they have their
other top 3 linebackers back in Borland, Werner and Browning. The trio leads
the team in tackles this season.
Finally, the Buckeyes have a solid kicker in senior Blake
Haubeil. He is just 5-7 this season with a long of 43, but he was 13-15 last
year with a long of 55, his only attempt over 50 yards in his career.
Ohio State is ranked No.9 in scoring offense (42.5
points/game), No.4 in rushing offense (275.67 yards/game), No.42 in passing
offense (253.5 yards per game) and No.6 in total offense (529.2 yards/game).
The Buckeyes are No.24 in scoring defense (21.0 points/game), No.6 in rush
defense (96.67 yards/game), No.104 in pass defense (261.3 yards/game) and No.34
in total defense (358.0 yards/game). They are No.25 in sacks (2.83/game), No.67
in tackles-for-loss (6.0/game), No.35 in interceptions (1.0/game) and No.3 in
turnover margin (+1.33/game). They have 16 takeaways and just 8 turnovers lost.
CLEMSON STATUS
Obviously, the biggest news from the Clemson camp broke on Wednesday,
when it was announced that Offensive Coordinator Tony Elliott tested positive for
COVID and will miss the Sugar Bowl. However, no one in college football is more
prepared for every contingency than Dabo Swinney, and I knew that Dabo would
have a plan in place for this event. Although Tony’s absence in the booth will
be a big disadvantage for the Tigers, my bigger concern was whether any players
would also test positive or be quarantined due to contact tracing. From what
Dabo said in our Zoom press conference on Thursday morning, it sounds like just
one scholarship player and one walk-on did not make the trip due to COVID, so
that’s great news for the Tigers. As far as play-calling duties, QB Coach
Brandon Streeter will be in Tony’s seat in the booth and call the plays on Friday.
It will be an adjustment for Trevor Lawrence not to have Streeter on the
sideline, but he will be able to communicate with Trevor from the booth. Dabo
said that CJ Spiller will help with the running back rotation—one of the in-game
duties of Streeter ordinarily. If you’re going to lose your offensive
coordinator and play-caller—remember, the Tigers’ 6-year playoff run began when
Tony Elliott started calling the plays—I guess you’d like to have a quarterback
like Trevor Lawrence, who has seen it all and is 34-1 as a starter. While Trevor
is no play-caller like Tony just yet, he is adept at making pre-snap
adjustments and can get the Tigers out of bad plays at the line of scrimmage.
Many of the designed plays are RPO’s anyway, which puts the decision-making in
Trevor’s hands. The only question is whether Tony’s absence will cost the
Tigers a play here or a play there, especially in third down situations. A
third down or two not converted could add up to a significant number of points.
As for the players, I’m hoping Xavier Thomas will be back.
It’s unclear why he missed the Notre Dame game. Dabo told me he was not
injured, and we know he had COVID already in the summer, so perhaps it was
disciplinary. Whatever it was, let’s hope he’s back because he was on a tear
over the last few games before the ACC Championship, playing about as well as
he has in his career. He had 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble in his last 96
snaps, which equates to about a game and a half. Fortunately, the Tigers didn’t
need him in order to shut down Ian Book and Notre Dame in the rematch, but having
him in the rotation against Ohio State would be a big boost to keep Myles
Murphy and KJ Henry fresh.
I’m also hoping Frank Ladson will be back to himself on Friday.
He played just 5 snaps against Notre Dame and didn’t have a catch. Just his
presence as another down field threat along with Powell, Rodgers and Williams
would make a big difference. Ngata could also potentially be back, but I’m not
holding my breath on him. He had a great freshman year last year but has been beset
by injuries all season. Just when it looked like he might be back in the first
Notre Dame game, he immediately got hurt again. However, freshman EJ Williams has
turned a corner it seems. He has been decent all season, with a catch here or
there, but he was a major factor in the ACC Championship right out of the gate.
He made a nice catch to convert on 3rd down on the opening
possession, which prevented a 3-and-out, and of course had the long touchdown
catch. The one-handed catch he made on the sideline in the second half was
reminiscent of his old high school teammate Justyn Ross’s one-hander as a
freshman against Alabama in the National Championship. The gasp from everyone
in the press box was eerily similar! A game like that can certainly be a big
confidence boost for the true freshman, and I am anxious to see what he does
for a second act. Remember, it was about the same time that Ross burst onto the
scene in his freshman year and had an enormous playoff.
I also look to one of the tight ends, Galloway or Allen, to
make a big play or two in the passing game. That’s something Ohio State didn’t
really have to deal with last year. Allen was a true freshman, and Galloway was
just coming off his suspension.
Defensively, the Tigers are in the best shape they’ve been
all season. Starting safety Nolan Turner will miss the first half, however, due to his targeting ejection in the 2nd half against Notre Dame. Joseph Charleston has plenty of experience by now, though. Although Nolan had the game-sealing interception, he was not pleased with his overall performance and said that he wants to make up for that. He was juked a couple of times in the open field and was beat on a touchdown pass as well. He'll have to make up for lost time in the second half! Backup MLB Jake Venables is out for the season with a broken arm,
so hopefully Skalski won’t get hurt again. He said that he was football sore
after the Notre Dame game, but not sore from his surgery, so that is good news.
If Skalski does go down again, Patterson and Bentley have gotten some good
experience and made several big plays, so they should be able to step up.
Speaking of linebackers, Baylon Spector told me the other day that he has
decided to return to Clemson next season. That is great news for the Tigers! He
had another year of eligibility anyway, before the additional year granted by
the NCAA, but he had already earned his degree before this season. He’s had a
great season in his first as a starter.
Clemson is ranked No.3 in scoring offense (44.9
points/game), No.64 in rushing offense (163.82 yards/game), No.7 in passing
offense (343.8 yards per game) and No.10 in total offense (507.6 yards/game).
The Tigers are No.11 in scoring defense (17.5 points/game), No.8 in rush
defense (99.82 yards/game), No.25 in pass defense (198.6 yards/game) and No.5
in total defense (298.5 yards/game). They are No.4 in sacks (4.0/game), No.3 in
tackles-for-loss (9.36/game), No.11 in interceptions (13) and No.18 in turnover
margin (+0.82/game). They are 5th in turnovers gained (22) but have
given it away 13 times.
PREDICTION
The Tigers will be wearing all orange in the Super Dome as the higher ranked team. Interestingly, though, the Tigers have been virtually unbeatable in the white jerseys. In fact, you might have to go all the way back to the Tommy Bowden era to find a loss in that uniform combination. Both of Dabo's national championship wins were in orange and white. The most recent blowout of Notre Dame was in orange and white. Last year's win over Ohio State was in orange and white. The 2013 season orange bowl win over ohio state was in orange and white. Conversely, both of Dabo's losses in New Orleans were in all orange as well as the national championship loss to Alabama. You can even go back to the 2011 Orange Bowl loss to West Virginia and Gator Bowl loss to Nebraska--both of those were in all orange. Now, that's not to say by any means that the all orange uniforms are unlucky. In fact, the Tigers blew out Notre Dame 2 years ago in all orange as well as Ohio State in 2016 and Oklahoma in 2015 and 2014 wearing all orange. The 2013 Peach Bowl win over LSU was in all orange, and, of course, who could forget the Tigers' first national championship Orange Bowl win over Nebraska. And I know Dabo isn't superstitious about uniforms, so you can expect to see the all orange uni's in the Super Dome. I'm just saying if it were me, as unbeatable as the Tigers have been in orange and white? I might opt for that combo if it were up to me. The good news is if the Tigers play Alabama again for the national championship in Miami, they will be wearing that orange and white combo that they wore in both championship wins over the Tide....that is, unless Nick Saban catches on.
As for the Ohio State rematch, everyone loves to talk about motivation and which team will
be more motivated, but when the stakes are this high, I think you can throw
that out the window. Sure, Ohio State wants revenge for last year’s loss, and
they are probably ticked off about Dabo ranking them No.11 last week. However, I
think they would be just as motivated to play for a national title without
those extrinsic factors, just as the Tigers are. I’m sure Trevor Lawrence wants
to exorcise his Super Dome demons, where he played the worst game in his
career. I’m sure Travis Etienne wants to make up for his two losses in his own backyard
with all his family and friends in attendance. But when it comes down to it and
toe meets leather, it all comes down to execution. And that’s where I think the
Tigers have a decided advantage. Again, Ohio State has only played about half
of the games that the Tigers have. They started later, and they have only
played one game since December 5th. Many of their players haven’t played
at all since the 5th. Ohio State is not a fully developed team like
Clemson is, and it has shown. Unless the Buckeyes just happen to pull it all
together in the nick of time and play their best game of the season, this game
shouldn’t be as close as the 7.5-point advantage Vegas has given the Tigers.
The Buckeyes’ secondary was their strength last season, but after
losing all those players to the NFL, they have a woeful pass defense, ranking No.104
nationally. That spells trouble for a team that hasn’t faced a quarterback like
Trevor Lawrence yet!
I expect Travis to have a big game running and/or receiving,
and I think that Brent Venables will have some surprises in store for Justin
Fields. The Ohio State offensive line is good but not nearly as good as Notre
Dame’s, and the Tigers absolutely shut down the Irish running game in Charlotte,
holding them to just 1.5 yards per rush. We’ll find out if Sermon’s big game
against Northwestern was a fluke or if he’s just peaking at the right time, but
I’m betting the former. You also have to wonder how effective Olave will be
after not playing a game in nearly a month. If Tony Elliott were calling the
plays in the booth for the Tigers, I’d predict another 24-point blowout win for
the Tigers, their second in a row. However, I think his absence could cause
some hiccups in the offense early and cost the Tigers as many as 10 points.
Defensively, I won’t be surprised at all if Venables and
company shut down the Buckeyes like they did Notre Dame. After all, the Notre
Dame offense was every bit as prolific statistically going into the game, with
a veteran QB who had only lost 3 games in his career and perhaps the best
offensive line in the nation. Book may not be as good at throwing the deep ball
as Fields, but in many ways he’s a better quarterback and probably even more
elusive. Yet the Tigers were still amazingly able to sack book 6 times in
Charlotte without Xavier Thomas. Also, Fields has a tendency to hold onto the
ball too long in the pocket, which allows the pass rush to get to him. He doesn’t
get rid of the ball or scramble as effectively as Book does. So I could easily
see the Tigers holding the Buckeyes to 17 points or less, but I’ll be generous
and assume that Fields, Sermon and crew will be bring their A games.
The one X-factor is turnovers. They are always huge in a
game like this between great teams for high stakes, and they are the equalizer
when one team has a decided advantage like I believe the Tigers do. Ohio State is
No.3 nationally in turnover margin per game at +1.33. I don’t believe that will
be enough for the Buckeyes to win, but if they are plus 2 or more, or the
Tigers give them points off turnovers the way they did against Boston College
and Notre Dame, this could be a much closer game.
Be that as it may, I believe the Tigers will force a
turnover or two of their own and make it 5-0 all-time over Ohio State, 3-0 in
the College Football Playoff. The New Orleans curse is broken! One last swan
song for Trev and Trav….get ready for Clemson vs. Bama Part V, folks!
The Prowl toward an unprecedented 6th consecutive
ACC Title, unprecedented 6th consecutive College Football Playoff
and 3rd consecutive National Championship Game is complete. The
Prowl toward a 4th National Title continues…...
CLEMSON 38 Ohio State 24
MORE CLEMSON FOOTBALL COVERAGE HERE
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