WHAT WE ARE HEARING: PREVIEW & PREDICTION FOR NO.7 CLEMSON AT NC STATE

Welcome to the Textile Bowl edition of What We Are Hearing!

The Tigers survived a scare on a bizarre day in Death Valley last week, keeping the nation’s longest active home win streak alive at 30 games, with the defense saving the day once again in a 14-8 win over the Yellow Jackets. All of the focus is on the Tigers’ offense putting up just 14 points against a team they beat 73-7 last year in Atlanta, but let’s give the proper amount of credit to the sensational defensive performance by the Tigers for the third straight game this season. The Tigers’ defense is the only unit in America that has yet to allow a touchdown through three games, and they came up with the crucial stops when they had to have them. With 32 seconds left in the first half, the game was delayed for just under two hours due to lightning in the area, and the defense had to maintain its focus and intensity through all of that, knowing that they would have to come out to a 3rd and 2 play from their 17-yard line when they resumed play, holding a 7-0 lead. They had to do it without the benefit of a capacity crowd, too, as only about 25,000 of the sellout crowd returned from the delay. In spite of all of that, the defense was able to hold Tech to a field goal, maintaining a 7-3 lead going into the 3rd quarter. Then, the defense had to come right back onto the field without a halftime break and defend another Tech possession. The Tigers’ offense only had 3 possessions in the second half and DJ fumbled in the red zone on one of their possessions, so they were only able to add 7 more points on freshman RB Will Shipley’s second TD of the game. However, the 11-point lead was all the defense would need. After holding Tech to another field goal, the Jackets recovered the onside kick, but the Tigers’ defense came up with a goal-line stand with 15 seconds left, thanks in large part to super senior James Skalski, and their work still wouldn’t be done. After a Shipley fumble on the goal line resulted in a safety, Tech would get the ball back for a third straight time with a chance to get in position for a game-winning Hail Mary. However, the Tigers were having none of it and Tech was not able to get close enough for a Hail Mary attempt. It seemed like the Tigers’ defense was on the field for an eternity in the 4th quarter, but they answered the bell time after time. 

Of course, the polls still penalized the Tigers for winning with great defense despite all the talent they have on offense and the best track record in all of college football since 2015 with 6 playoff wins, while No.3 Oklahoma has yet to win a playoff game and routinely loses to an unranked team at some point in the regular season. They dropped the Tigers to No.7 in the Coaches' Poll and No.9 in the AP. I stopped caring about the ridiculous polls this season, however, since they unjustifiably wrecked the Tigers' top 5 streak after the Georgia loss, but if you want to see them, click on the links below. The Coaches' Poll dropped the Tigers to No.7, and the AP dropped them all the way to No.9. I'm actually surprised that the AP didn't deliberately break the Tigers' top 10 streak as well, which is tied with Alabama for second-longest all-time! People are so obsessed with offense over the last few years that they have amnesia and have completely forgotten that it's perfectly fine to win with great defense like Bama used to. Fortunately, the Selection Committee is smarter than the pollsters, and the Tigers will make the playoff once again, even if they win every game with defense this season!

Look, folks, it’s obvious that the Tigers’ offense has not come close to meeting expectations in their first two games against Power Five opponents, but the defense has been historically great, even by Clemson standards, and it’s a shame that that fact is being largely ignored because of the offensive struggles. If the defense continues to play like it has, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t, I don’t know who is going to be able to beat the Tigers in the regular season when they are only allowing 4 points per game. It’s only a matter of time until the offense starts holding up its end because the Tigers have too much talent and too many weapons on that side of the ball not to. It’s been a weird start to the season, opening with one of the best defenses in the nation away from home, and then two games later facing a Tech defensive scheme that was totally different from what they have played in the past. Added to that was a two-hour delay in the middle of the game and only 8 offensive possessions. That is too small and unusual of a sample size to draw any long-term conclusions about the capability of this offense for the season. So take a deep breath and relax, folks, the offense and points are coming!

That being said, the Tigers are getting ready for their first true road game in a truly hostile environment since 2019 as they travel to Raleigh to play 2-1 NC State, who they did not play in 2020 due to the COVID-altered ACC schedule. So it will be not only the first road game for freshmen like Will Shipley, starting offensive guard Marcus Tate and starting safety Andrew Mukuba, it will also be the first real road test for DJ and the other sophomores like starting offensive tackle Walker Parks, RB Kobe Pace, CB Andrew Booth, DL’s Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy, Ruke Orhorhoro, WR EJ Williams and LB Trenton Simpson, among others. The Tigers have won 8 straight in the series and 15 of the last 16, so Dave Doeren and the State fan base is as hungry for a win over the Tigers as they could possibly be. The younger generation may not be aware that this rivalry is known as the Textile Bowl because, historically, the two universities were once the biggest contributors to the nation’s textile industry. My old second home when I was a Clemson Accounting major and later MBA student, Sirrine Hall, is still a living reminder of the strong textile presence at the university. There’s even a dusty old trophy that Dabo and the Tigers have had in their possession for the last 9 years. Kickoff is at 3:30 on ESPN, and I’ll be on the field in Raleigh to bring you live coverage!

On to this week's matchup….

MISCELLANEOUS

Clemson leads the all-time series with NC State 59-28-1 dating to 1899 when Clemson won 24-0 in Rock Hill, SC. The 59 wins versus State rank third of all Clemson opponents behind South Carolina (71) and Wake Forest (68). Clemson has won the last 8 meetings with NC State. The ACC Charter members did not play in 2020 due to COVID. It was the first year they had not played each other since 1970…In 1903, Clemson defeated NC State 24-0 in Columbia, SC, and Clemson Head Coach John Heisman married the former Evelyn Barksdale in Columbia after the game. It is believed to be the only time in Clemson sports history that a coach won a game and won a lady’s hand in matrimony on the same day…Clemson and NC State are the only two programs to have had 3 defensive linemen selected in a first round of the NFL Draft. State was the first in 2006 with Mario Williams (the No.1 overall pick), Manny Lawson and John McCargo. Clemson accomplished the feat in the 2019 Draft with Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins… Clemson (81-8) is one win behind Alabama (82-6) for the most since 2015. The Tigers (123) trail only Alabama (130) for the most wins since 2011. They have 9 more than Ohio State. Clemson leads the nation in Power Five wins (86) since 2013. Alabama has 83 and Ohio State has 78 over that span....Clemson has beaten at least 12 Power Five opponents in 4 of the last 6 seasons. In college football history, that feat has only been achieved 4 other times. Alabama, LSU, Georgia and FSU each accomplished it once….The Tigers have won 10 or more games for 10 straight seasons, the third-longest streak in history behind FSU (14) and Alabama (13), which is also an active streak…The Tigers’ streak of 6 straight outright conference titles is tied with Oklahoma’s active streak for the third-longest in history. Oklahoma won 12 in the 40’s and 50’s and BYU won the WAC 7 straight times in the 70’s and 80’s. However, Clemson is the only program to have won 6 straight conference championship games….Clemson has finished in the top-4 of the AP Poll in 6 consecutive seasons, tied with Bud Wilkinson’s Oklahoma teams for the fourth-longest streak in history. FSU did so 13 straight seasons under the late great Bobby Bowden, while USC and Miami have each done so 7 straight seasons….Dabo Swinney has the best active win percentage in the nation at .807. Nick Saban is second at .798….Dabo’s 142 wins are already tied with Steve Spurrier for 6th-most by a coach in his first 15 seasons, but Dabo is only in his 13th full season. He could quite conceivably top Urban Meyer’s record of 165 wins in his first 15 seasons….Clemson has been ranked No.1 in the AP Poll in each of the last 6 seasons, which is the third-longest streak of all time behind Alabama (14) and Miami (7). Alabama’s streak is also active….Clemson had by far the longest active streak ranked in the top 5 of the AP Poll at 57 straight weeks before dropping to No.6 because of a pick-six in the opener against now No.2 Georgia. Alabama was second at 21, followed by Georgia and Oklahoma with just 4 each. If Clemson had remained in the AP top 5 until the end of the regular season, it would have surpassed Alabama’s all-time record of 68. Clemson’s current streak of 97 straight weeks in the AP top 10 is tied with Alabama for the longest streak in history behind Miami (137)…Since 2011, Clemson has finished with an equal or higher ranking than its preseason ranking every year except for 2019 and 2020, the only two years the Tigers have been ranked No.1 preseason. The Tigers were ranked No.2 and No.3 in the 2021 preseason polls…

NC STATE SYNOPSIS

The Wolfpack are a much-improved team since the Tigers last faced them two years ago in Raleigh, blowing them out 55-10. The Pack was decimated by injuries back then, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and QB Devin Leary was just cutting his teeth as a freshman. They won 8 games last season, and this iteration of NC State is one of the more experienced teams in the nation and a complete team in all three phases. They lost at Mississippi State 24-10, but the score is misleading. State had success moving the ball in that game, but they had two turnovers in the red zone. They also opened the game by spotting the Bulldogs 7 points with a kick return for a touchdown, which is the worst thing a team can do on the road with a hostile SEC crowd in a night game. That really set the tone for the entire game, giving MSU and its fans confidence and momentum from the outset, and the Pack was never able to recover. Had it not been for that kick return, it’s a one-score game at the end, and if not for one of the Pack’s two red zone turnovers, they might have won. I’m not making excuses for State, just pointing out that it could have very easily been much different if they played that game over again. State ran its other two opponents, USF and Furman, off the field by a combined score of 90-7, but those are obviously inferior teams, so this game gives State an opportunity to really show what it’s made of on a national stage with everyone watching.

Devin Leary is now in his third season as the Pack’s starting quarterback, and he is a savvy veteran. He’s off to a great start this season, completing 67% of his passes for over 260 yards per game with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Even in the loss at Miss State, he was 30-49 for 303 yards with a TD, but he did have a costly INT in the red zone. He’s not known as a runner, but he added a 7-yard rush TD to his stats in their 45-7 win over Furman last week. This is just the sort of game in which Leary would love to make a name for himself against the Tigers’ vaunted defense.

Leary has some formidable weapons at receiver in 6’3, 212-pound senior Emeka Emezie (#86) and 6’3, 216-pound sophomore Devin Carter (#88). The former leads the team with 14 catches for 186 yards but has yet to find the endzone this season. Carter has 8 catches for 140 yards and has also yet to score. 6’0, 197-pound junior slot receiver Thayer Thomas (#5) will remind Clemson fans of a little bigger version of Hunter Renfrow. He’s a quick, shifty slot receiver and return specialist who is big on 3rd down and has 2 touchdowns this season to go with his 13 catches for 124 yards. WR’s Anthony Smith and Christopher Toudle each have a TD catch this season, as does 6’5, 245-pound tight end Dylan Parham (#28), so Leary has spread the ball around to a number of different receivers.

Leary has a nice two-headed monster in the backfield with him in 5’11, 210-pound sophomore Zonovan “Bam” Knight (#7) and 6’1, 222-pound junior Ricky Person, Jr. Both backs have a good combination of speed and power and can run between the tackles or get to the edge. Knight leads the team with 298 yards rushing, averaging 8.5 yards per carry, and has 2 touchdowns. Person is averaging 5.2 yards per carry with 3 TD’s. They will throw the ball to both out of the backfield, but Person is a little more of a threat in that department with 8 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. The offensive line is a strength for the Pack with 6 returning players with starting experience and over 100 starts combined up front.

As good as the Pack’s offense is, the defense is probably even better, which is the norm under defensive-minded Head Coach Dave Doeren, who has ties to Brent Venables as a fellow Kansas native. Doeren’s first coaching job was at a high school in Kansas when Venables was a young coach for his alma mater, Kansas State. Through the first 3 games, State has the No.5 scoring defense, allowing just 10.3 points per game, and No.16 total defense, allowing 261 yards per game. They are No.14 against the run, allowing just 72.67 rush yards per game, and No.42 against the pass, allowing 188.3 pass yards per game. They rank No.5 on third down, allowing a conversion rate of less than 21%. Third down will be a critical matchup in this game because the Tigers’ offense, believe it or not, is No.20 with a conversion rate of 50% despite having played Georgia. They were an impressive 9-15 on third down against Tech last week, which was one of the biggest positives from the offense in that game. Incidentally, the Tigers’ defense is No.10 on third down, allowing a conversion rate of 26%.

Surprisingly, State’s defense has only produced 2 sacks in the first 3 games. However, they already have 4 interceptions, so DJ will need to be careful. He’s thrown interceptions in his first two games against Power Five teams this season and probably could have had a couple more. He needs to be much more accurate and avoid the high, errant throws on Saturday. DT Davin Vann and LB Payton Wilson are responsible for the unit’s 2 sacks, but 6’3, 265-pound DE grad transfer Daniel Joseph (#99) is probably their best pass rusher. Wilson was the team’s leading tackler last season and suffered a season-ending injury a week ago. At the same time, they also lost their starting safety, Cyrus Fagan, who had an interception in the opener. Those are two big losses in the middle of that defense and will benefit the Tigers.

Finally, State’s coverage unit might be a little suspect after allowing that kick return TD a couple weeks ago, but special teams are a strength for the Pack otherwise. They have a fourth-year kicker in Christopher Dunn, who had an off year in 2020, going 12-17, but he made 88% of his field goal attempts before that as a freshman and sophomore. This season, he is 3-4 with a long of 45. His career long is 53. They also have a great punter in redshirt junior Trenton Gill, who has a career average of 46.3 yards per punt. Both he and Dunn own career records for NC State. As usual, the Tigers are facing an All-American type punter like they’ve seemed to every week for the past few years! Look out for WR Thayer Thomas in the return game as well.

CLEMSON STATUS

The Tigers were dealt a big blow on defense as well this week when Dabo announced on Monday night that starting DT Tyler Davis tore his bicep in the Tech game and will miss the next 7-8 weeks. He remarkably played through pain until the game was over and displayed incredible effort on several hustle players that many players don’t even make at 100 percent. There is no replacing a player like Davis, but the good news is that Ruke Orhorhoro has been outstanding so far. He got his first start against Georgia because Davis was out due to COVID protocol, and Ruke was named Defensive MVP in that game for the Tigers. Fellow backup DT Tre Williams has also been reliable, but the Tigers can ill afford any more injuries at tackle now. Bryan Bresee has been a beast and lived up to the hype despite playing through a banged-up shoulder. It’s been a rough couple of seasons for Tyler Davis since his freshman All-American season in 2019. He missed a few games last season due to injury, including the overtime loss at Notre Dame, and now he’s going to miss the better part of this season. The Tigers have already had 4 starters on the defensive side miss games this season, with Zanders out for the entire season and Davis out for 7-8 weeks. Fortunately, they are in good shape otherwise. Starting WLB Baylon Spector missed the Tech game with a hurt knee, but Dabo told me on Wednesday night that he looked good at practice and should be ready to go on Saturday. It was a last-minute decision to hold him last week, so LaVonta Bentley had little time to prepare for making the start in his place. However, Bentley was sensational, leading the team with 13 tackles and 2.5 tackles-for-loss, including a sack. That’s the big difference between Clemson and every other team in the ACC. The Tigers can lose a big-time starter and just roll in a backup without missing a beat. Knock on wood! We saw it in the Georgia game with both starting safeties and Tyler Davis out, and now we’ve seen it with Bentley. The Tigers also lost starting SLB Trenton Simpson to a targeting call just before halftime, but the defense still did not miss a beat. Simpson, of course will be able to start on Saturday since the ejection occurred in the first half. Don’t forget to check HERE about 2 hours before kickoff for a final player availability report!

Other than the offensive struggles and self-inflicted mistakes, Will Shipley has been the story of the offense over the past couple weeks. If you haven’t read the story we published on Friday about Shipley, click HERE to read it! The true freshman has scored 2 touchdowns in each of the last 2 games and has been named ACC Rookie of the Week in each of the last two weeks. The Tigers probably don’t win that Tech game without him, and Dabo has named him the starter, so the Charlotte native will serendipitously make his first career start in his home state. The other big storyline this week was that senior RB Lyn-J Dixon entered the transfer portal, which is probably not unrelated to Shipley passing him on the depth chart. I give Dixon credit for patiently waiting for his turn behind Travis Etienne rather than transferring earlier, and even when he saw the talent coming in, he decided to stick it out and compete. However, I said last spring that I thought Shipley and Pace would ultimately pass Dixon on the depth chart at some point this season. And I reported in August that Shipley and Pace were running with the 1’s in the scrimmage, while Dixon was with the 2’s and 3’s. I went on record saying that I thought Dixon would probably transfer in the spring and maybe even after the fourth game this season, which would preserve this season of eligibility. Apparently, Dixon made his mind up and didn’t need one more game. That being said, Dixon will leave here a Clemson graduate, and I wish him all the success with the rest of his career. He will always be a Tiger! But I honestly believe his departure could be a good thing for the offense. Dabo won’t have to worry about keeping him happy and rotating him in. That should allow Shipley and Pace to get in a rhythm, as well as the offense as a whole. It does make the running back position thinner, though, so we’ll have to hope that Shipley and Pace can both stay healthy throughout the course of the season while taking even more hits. Shipley, in particular, is a tough, bruising runner who will run through a lot of contact, and he missed his entire senior season in high school last year due to injury, so hopefully he can sustain the pounding he’ll take in a 15-game college football season. Behind Shipley and Pace, the Tigers have freshman Phil Mafah—who has great size and potential but is too raw right now—Michel Dukes and Darien Rencher. Dukes missed just about all of camp and is far from being ready to be a consistently productive back. Former walk-on Darien Rencher is competent and reliable, but neither of them is a back the Tigers would likely win with in the playoff.

The biggest question mark is obviously where DJ’s head is at right now. We’ve all seen what he’s capable of. The guy set an all-time Notre Dame Stadium passing record in his first career road start, and that was with Rogers and Powell at receiver with Ross, Ladson and Ngata out. He has all the physical tools, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to put it together for 4 quarters yet this season. He looked better against SC State, leading the offense to touchdowns in their first 4 possessions and scoring 28 points in the first quarter, but he took another step back last week. He had good moments but also had errant throws, a big fumble after picking up a first down in the red zone and a dropped snap—the second time in three games that he simply took his eyes off the ball. The good news is that Tony Elliott has been using him in the run game more, and that run he made on 3rd and 14 last week was a thing of beauty. Perhaps for DJ and this entire offense, getting away from home and all the outside noise and criticism will be just what the doctor ordered. Sometimes going on the road in a hostile environment can have a way of galvanizing and bonding a team, and that’s something the offense could really use right now. My biggest concern is how the offensive line will handle the noise and communication. Freshman guard Marcus Tate had two false starts last week, and those are drive-killers. As mentioned, starting tackle Walker Parks will also be getting his first taste of a packed house on the road, and junior starting guard Will Putnam has very little experience in that type of environment as well. Even the veteran Matt Bockhorst will be making his first start at center under those conditions.

PREDICTION

Before the season started, I pointed to this game as the biggest threat on the schedule outside of the Georgia game, and it scares me a little that the Tigers have won 8 straight and 15 of the last 16 against the Pack. That means they are due! It’s one of the toughest places to play in the ACC, and the Tigers have had some close calls there as recently as 2015 and 2017. However, the Tigers usually don’t have back-to-back scares in the ACC, and my gut tells me that the offense will bounce back and finally show everyone what it is capable of. I think the Tech game was one of those unlucky days where everything that can go wrong does, and yet the Tigers were still able to find a way to win. This week, I think the offense will play its best game yet and defense travels. The defense will finally allow a touchdown for the first time this season but will still play lights-out. Make it 9 in a row and 16 of 17! The Textile Bowl Trophy remains in Tiger Town for another year, and the offense takes a big step forward.

The Prowl toward a 7th consecutive ACC Title, 7th consecutive College Football Playoff and 4th National Title continues…..

CLEMSON    38        NC State    10